Notes to the New CNO Series

By John Hanley

I was fortunate to work directly for CNOs Tom Hayward through Jay Johnson during my 17 years with the CNO Strategic Studies Group, where the CNOs tasked us to study challenges that were keeping them up at night or where they saw opportunities to advance the Navy and national security. Three challenges stand out for the current generation of Navy leadership.

First, getting real is a matter of integrity. Striving to do one’s best is imperative. However, it is essential to get real about what resources, including time, are available to accomplish tasks. Tasking more than can be accomplished results in fudging and corrupting the character of individuals and the soul of the Navy.

Second, getting better requires appreciating the complexity of the Navy and its place in the national security ecosystem. Sources of complexity within the Navy and in the ecosystem derive in part from individuals and organizations having incongruent motivations. As Admiral Bill Owens once said as the N8, there must be a god because no one is in control. Accepting limits of control is the beginning of wisdom. Although leaders cannot direct the winds, they can adjust the sails.

Adjusting the sails to stay on course requires campaigns of learning in readiness, engagement, and equipping strategies. Actions should derive from more than just routine checklists. They require deliberate reflection on what is to be learned. Whether it is maintenance and administration, training and education, at-sea exercises, engagement with adversaries and partners (e.g., FONOPS), or creating antifragile naval architectures, if the participants are simply box-checking rather than learning, the effort is falling short. The Navy must be more deliberate about being a learning organization and how it structures its campaigns of learning.

Dealing with complexity requires careful reflection on how strategies are framed, and considering uncomfortable alternatives. It requires balancing theoretical constructs with practical intuition and experience, and a willingness to challenge theory. Rather than OODA loops, complexity requires Act-Sense-Decide-Adapt loops. Passive observation does not reveal what needs to be known without stimulating the system to learn, and change requires adaptation. It requires using strategies to achieve increasing returns, such as where small investments are made in specific high-risk ventures to learn a lot while still protecting core capabilities.

Finally, it requires rethinking the defense analysis paradigms that have constrained Navy thinking and development since McNamara instituted them in 1962. N81’s focus on campaign modeling rather than Navy wholeness, as formulated by CNO Admiral Jon Greenert, is a misdirected approach. Campaign models are wholly theoretical and produce only conjecture regarding system performance at sea. Similarly, wargames produce only conjecture about decisions and outcomes. But when used well, the experience of conducting critical analysis in anticipated scenarios helps prepare future commanders for real contingencies, as wargames and exercises did before WWII.

The way ahead involves campaigns of learning focused on pressing operational problems. These campaigns would be orchestrated by a General Board-type entity, involving close interactions among OPNAV, the Naval War College, the Naval Postgraduate School, the Systems Commands, and the fleet. These campaigns would focus the attention of the fleet, and enhance its competitive advantage by virtue of being a superior learning organization.

Dr. Hanley served with the first eighteen Chief of Naval Operations Strategic Studies Groups as an analyst, program director, and deputy director. He earned his doctorate in operations research and management science at Yale University. A former U.S. Navy nuclear submarine officer and fleet exercise analyst, and author of The US Navy and the National Security Establishment: A Critical Assessment.

Featured Image: PACIFIC OCEAN (Aug. 26, 2023) An F/A-18F Super Hornet from the “Fighting Redcocks” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 22 prepares to launch from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68). (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class David Rowe)

Notes to the New CNO Series

By Anthony Cowden

My recommendations to the next Chief of Naval Operations are based on the difference between the kind of navy we have today and the kind of navy our nation needs. Today we have a forward-based navy, not an expeditionary navy. This distinction is important for remaining competitive against modern threats and guiding force design.

Due to the unique geographical position of the U.S., the Navy has the luxury of defending the nation’s interests “over there.” Since World War II, it developed and maintained a navy that was able to project power overseas; to reconstitute its combat power while still at sea or at least far from national shores; and continuously maintain proximity to competitors. This expeditionary character minimized the dependence of the fleet on shore-based and homeland-based infrastructure to sustain operations, allowing the fleet to be more logistically self-sufficient at sea.

However, late in the Cold War, the U.S. Navy started to diminish its expeditionary capability, and became more reliant on allied and friendly bases. A key development was subtle but consequential – the vertical launch system (VLS) for the surface fleet’s primary anti-air, anti-submarine, and land-attack weapons. While a very capable system, reloading VLS at sea was problematic and soon abandoned. While an aircraft carrier can be rearmed at sea, surface warships cannot, which constrains the ability of carrier strike groups to sustain forward operations without taking frequent trips back to fixed infrastructure. The Navy is revisiting the issue of reloading VLS at sea, and those efforts should be reinforced.

The next step the Navy took away from an expeditionary capability was in the 1990s, when it decommissioned most of the submarine tenders (AS), all of the repair ships (AR), and destroyer tenders (AD), and moved away from Sailor-manned Shore Intermediate Maintenance Centers (SIMA). Not only did this eliminate the ability to conduct intermediate maintenance “over there,” but it destroyed the progression of apprentice-to-journeyman-to-master technician that made the U.S. Navy Sailor one of the premier maintenance resources in the military world. Combat search and rescue, salvage, and battle damage repair are other areas in which the U.S. Navy no longer has sufficient capability for sustaining expeditionary operations.

The Navy needs a new strategy that highlights the kind of fleet the nation needs. This strategy would argue the Navy needs to be able to use the sea when needed, to deny it to the nation’s enemies, and to project force ashore when required. To accomplish this, the Navy would maintain a tempo of operations using the necessary multi-domain forces, wherever in the world they are required. The Navy’s operations and force posture should always be based on the logic that naval operations will principally be conducted “over there,” far from the nation’s borders, and with a minimum of dependence on shore-based infrastructure.

The Navy also needs a different overall force structure to return to a more balanced and expeditionary force. The modern fleet is top-heavy in large surface combatants, light in smaller combatants, and insufficient in auxiliary ships. In summary, a new force structure calls for:

• • 11 Aircraft carriers
  • 10 LHA/LHDs
  • 21 Amphibious warfare ships
  • 71 Large surface combatants
  • 78 Small surface combatants
  • 66 Attack submarines
  • 12 Ballistic missile submarines
  • 34 Combat logistics forces
  • 48 Support vessels

This overall battle force of 351 ships is a more balanced and affordable force structure than what is currently under consideration.

The top thing the next CNO can do to affordably improve the U.S. Navy as a fighting force is to reduce operational tempo. Returning to predictable six-month-long deployments would improve force material readiness, morale, and retention. The tempo necessarily increased after 9/11 and the war in Iraq, but those efforts are largely over and the Navy needs to return to a rational and sustainable level of effort. The Navy will be able to make numerous and far-reaching changes to its warfighting readiness and expeditionary capability if it can manage to create a stable foundation of predictable deployment cycles.

Anthony Cowden is the Managing Director of Stari Consulting Services, co-author of Fighting the Fleet: Operational Art and Modern Fleet Combat,  author of The Naval Institute Almanac of the U.S. Navy,  and was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy for 37 years.

Featured Image: INDIAN OCEAN (July 11, 2023) Sailors aboard the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115) prepare to conduct a replenishment-at-sea with the Military Sealift Command fleet replenishment oiler USNS Rappahannock (T-AO 204). (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Colby A. Mothershead)

Notes to the New CNO Series

By Gonzalo Vazquez

With an increasingly complex strategic environment, and a fleet struggling to meet its many operational requirements, the next CNO must strive to find new ways to capitalize on allied naval capabilities to succeed at sea. Prominent options include strengthening naval cooperation with partners to ensure a permanent presence in all strategically relevant theaters, and bolstering the sharing of naval knowledge among allied naval war colleges.

Although significantly smaller in size and capabilities, European navies remain valuable assets that help Washington avoid a thinly-stretched force posture. Current NATO standing naval forces provide relatively low-cost means of sending high-value political signals of unity and forward deployments of warfighting capability. These standing naval forces could help strengthen Allied presence in the Mediterranean, the North Atlantic, or the Baltic Sea regions.

Mediterranean countries´ navies field strong assets and are capable of providing a sustained presence throughout the region, as do the navies of Canada, Denmark, Norway and the U.K. in the North Atlantic and the High North. The CNO must look for new ways to maximize the help they can offer, such as by improving their interoperability under the framework of Standing NATO Maritime Groups (SNMGs). This interoperability can be enhanced by linking centers of excellence that focus on tactical and training development, so that navies can share warfighting lessons across allied fleets.  

The U.S. should also capitalize on the growing capabilities of the Japanese and South Korean navies to face China in the Indo-Pacific region. Their commercial shipbuilding industrial bases have made them the second and third largest in the world by numbers, only behind Beijing. These capabilities could be leveraged to improve logistics and repair capacity. As such, they bring promising opportunities in a contested region and can help offset the relative lack of shipbuilding capacity in the United States.

With them, Australia and the Philippines will also be important assets to drive a credible deterrent posture against China´s growing assertiveness. Hybrid tactics in the vicinity of the South China Sea, like the water cannon incident in August 2023, could be handled better by using something similar to a Standing Maritime Group framework but applied in the Indo-Pacific. The partnership announced by Washington and Manila to enhance their surveillance around the region is a good starting point, but the CNO must aspire to include other regional partners as well.

Additionally, for stronger support to Allied efforts at sea, cooperation and sharing of expertise among partner nations at the academic level is highly desirable. Options worth considering include bringing qualified allied observers to sea to witness combat exercises at higher levels of classification, and establishing a formal network of the different naval war colleges to share knowledge, wargames, and curriculum.

The conference of PLAN admirals in 2022 highlighted China’s aspirations to expand their research on military affairs and study their adversaries in detail. Beijing is aware of the vital role that academic research plays in improving chances of warfighting success at sea, and so should allied navies. The new CNO will be in an excellent position to advocate for new joint initiatives among allied naval war colleges.

Admiral J.C. Wylie spoke of the need for naval presence, that a “man on the scene with a gun [may be needed] to exercise the durable and continuing control that can rarely be had in any other way.” Allied navies are poised to be on the scene and provide tangible presence. The new CNO must drive the U.S. Navy into a new chapter of Allied naval cooperation.

Gonzalo Vázquez is a junior analyst with the Center for Naval Thought at the Spanish Naval War College, and is currently working as an Intern at the Crisis Management and Disaster Response Center of Excellence in Sofia, Bulgaria.

Featured Image: Naval review of the Spanish Navy held on June 2, 2017 in the Pontevedra Estuary on the occasion of the 300th anniversary of the Royal Company of Guardiamarinas, origin of the current Naval Military Academy of Marín. In the picture, BAM Tornado P-44, frigate Almirnate Juan de Borbón F-102 and Juan Carlos I aircarrier. (Photo via Wikimedia Commons)