Sea Control 486 – Force Writers Room with Captain Ric Arthur and Dava Casoni

By Jared Samuelson

Captain Ric Arthur and Dava Casoni join the podcast to share their experience with the Force Writers Room, the group of warfighters and creatives envisioning the future of warfare. Dava is a lawyer who worked as an actor in Hollywood and also served in the U.S. Army Reserve. Ric is a naval reservist and writer who originated and piloted the Force Writers Room process.

Download Sea Control 486 – Force Writers Room with Captain Ric Arthur and Dava Casoni

Links

1. Force Writers Room

Jared Samuelson is Co-Host and Executive Producer of the Sea Control podcast. Contact him at Seacontrol@cimsec.org.

CIMSEC’s Top 10 Articles of 2023

By Dmitry Filipoff

CIMSEC had an outstanding year in 2023. Numerous authors took to CIMSEC to offer compelling insights and analysis on a broad range of maritime security topics and naval affairs. We are continually grateful to our readership for following and contributing to the conversation on our pages. To close out the year, we are highlighting the top 10 CIMSEC articles of 2023, listed below in order of most viewed.

On behalf of the CIMSEC team, we hope you enjoy the holidays, and we look forward to continuing the conversation in an exciting new year.

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1. “An Allied Coast Guard Approach to Countering CCP Maritime Gray Zone Coercion,” by Jada Fraser

“An analysis of recent reforms to Japan’s coast guard presents several models that the USCG can build off. Such an approach recognizes current U.S. resource limitations and accounts for how an important U.S. ally at the forefront of countering CCG gray zone activities has pursued its own reforms, even while under similar and additional constraints.”

2. “A Fleet Adrift: The Mounting Risks of the U.S. Navy’s Force Development,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“Overall, the Navy’s major exercises often took a scripted character, where the outcomes were generally known beforehand and the opposition was usually made to lose. Training only one thing at a time against opposition that never wins barely scratches the surface of war, but for the most part this was the best the Navy could do to train its strike groups for years.”

3. “Fighting DMO, Pt. 8: China’s Anti-Ship Firepower and Mass Firing Schemes,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“As both great powers build up and evolve their anti-ship firepower, it is critical to assess their respective schemes of massing fires, and how these schemes may compete and interact in a specific operational context, such as a war sparked by a Taiwan contingency. Whichever side wields the superior combination of tools and methods for massing fires may earn a major advantage in deterrence and in conflict.”

4. “Tankers For The Pacific Fight: A Crisis in Capability,” by Stephen M. Carmel

“Not only does the U.S. lack the tonnage required to support a major conflict in the Pacific, it has no identifiable roadmap to obtain it. Without enough fuel, the most advanced capabilities and ships – even nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – will hardly be available for use. This is a crisis in capability that requires urgent and effective action.”

5. “Winning High-End War at Sea: Insights into the PLA Navy’s New Strategic Concept,” by Ryan D. Martinson

“Perhaps no one source of information is more valuable than Chinese media coverage of an important—but largely unknown—conference of PLAN admirals held at the end of 2022, in the wake of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress. The available reporting on the conference sheds light on how to better understand how the PLAN sees its strategic priorities.”

6. “Fighting DMO, Pt. 1: Defining Distributed Maritime Operations and the Future of Naval Warfare,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“Distributed Maritime Operations can provide a framework for understanding modern naval warfare and illuminate its future. While plenty of unknowns remain, the DMO concept offers an important opportunity to foster debate on how to adapt naval warfighting and translate theory into practice.”

7. “Fighting DMO, Pt. 2: Anti-Ship Firepower and the Major Limits of the American Naval Arsenal,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“The ability to mass fires is fundamentally enabled by fielding a large number of long-range missiles across a wide variety of platforms. In terms of numbers, range, and variety, the U.S. military falls woefully short. The U.S. military cannot execute the tactic of distributed massed fires against warships today because it simply does not have the weapons to make it possible. Its current anti-ship missile firepower is extremely concentrated in aircraft carriers and tightly stretched thin everywhere else.”

8. “Island Blitz: A Campaign Analysis of a Taiwan Takeover by the PLA,” by Max Stewart

“This campaign analysis seeks to determine how long U.S. decision-makers can realistically have those debates before the PLA seizes Taipei and the window for effective intervention with military force has closed. It does so by employing analytical modeling, informed by historical data, to determine how long the Taiwanese can resist a Chinese invasion absent direct U.S. military intervention given best-case-scenario timelines for the PLA.”

9. “Fighting DMO, Pt. 7: The Future of the Aircraft Carrier in Distributed Warfighting,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“For distributed warfighting at sea, there is a clear argument to be made for the vital role of naval aviation, whether it must come from aircraft carriers or somewhere else. Some of these arguments are couched in the fact that many of the premier weapons of modern naval warfare are themselves fast airborne payloads, that warships are mostly blind to spaces of enormous tactical consequence, and that air superiority is a powerful enabler of information superiority.”

10. “Cuban Missile Crisis: Soviet Submarines Attack?” by LtCol Brent Stricker

“Vague orders on the use of nuclear tipped torpedoes and the heat and confusion might have caused a local commander to launch these weapons, dragging two nuclear powers into an escalating exchange both desperately wanted to avoid. This potentially escalatory exchange at a pivotal moment in the Cuban Missile Crisis offers a cautionary tale for the continuing conflict in Ukraine.”

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at Content@cimsec.org.

Featured Image: The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) transits the South China Sea on June 18, 2021, with the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Halsey (DDG 97) and the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Shiloh (CG 67). (MC1 Rawad Madanat/Navy)

Fiction Week Concludes on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

For the past two weeks, CIMSEC published short stories submitted in response to our call for fiction. Authors illuminated a variety of future scenarios and dynamics as they explored how conflict and competition may transform. The featured authors are listed below, and we thank them for their excellent contributions.

SAG-58,” by Tyler Totten

Taken as a group, SAG-58 was one of the most powerful anti-air warfare assets afloat. Roark collected and analyzed all the group’s sensor data. Needing only milliseconds to consider a thousand options, the orders flew across the laser comms network.”

Wave Runner,” by H I Sutton

“The three hatched a plan. If the maritime militia vessels were indeed uncrewed, and if their camera were fixed in sleep mode, they could slip through by passing each vessel close astern. Slowly, methodically, they weaved their way through the ghost fleet. They could only hope, pray, that none of the cameras would spot them.”

Heavy Metal at Midnight,” by Karl Flynn

Beyond the constant sweeping of the antennae on the radar vehicles, there was no activity on the objective. Liu checked over the geometries of fire on his HUD. As expected, everything was as it should be – a near perfect L-shaped ambush with Staff Sergeant Dalton’s half of the platoon forming the base of the L to his right.”

In Perpetuity,” by Daniel Lee

This unit was abruptly interrupted by the supervisor. ‘What the hell is wrong with…!’ he started, his voice slightly muffled as though he was talking to someone else. ‘Unit eleven-three!’ he proceeded, his voice louder, angrier, and more directed, ‘I don’t need to explain myself to you! Follow my orders or I’m sending you to the yards to get scrapped!’”

Dead Men Tell No Tales,” by Brian Kerg

The pilothouse opened on the Chinese boat, and a lean, wiry man stepped out, holding his own megaphone. His sleeveless t-shirt and board shorts contrasted sharply with the black assault rifle slung to his body and the sheathed dagger at his hip. In highly polished English, he replied.”

The United States Vs. Charles Alan Ordway,” by David Strachan

For the first couple months it was just answering some general e-mail inquiries about concepts of operations or certain technologies. But then Henrik started asking me pretty pointed questions about my research at FathomWorks. Initially I pushed back, politely, and he would usually back down. But after a while he became very persistent.”

War is my Racket,” by Kevin Smith

“‘Faith Aerospace is not a private military company, or PMC, if that’s what you’re implying,’ said Sean. ‘We also don’t pull the trigger. The platforms we sent are leased. We just build and maintain the platform – weapons release is controlled by the client. The end user.’”

Vigilante Seven Two,” by Mike Barretta

“Complexity and connections mattered in consciousness. But serendipity, something sublime, had to happen to create Bob, and there was no reliable manufacturing process for the sublime. If such a rare thing as an AI could be construed as typical, then Bob was typical. It was a human-level intelligence in a technological package about the size of a melon.”

Hide and Seek,” by Paul Viscovich

“‘Have someone tune the radar and gin up an OPREP-3 Pinnacle. Report this as an enemy contact!’ The group of little airborne drones held their positions and followed the U.S. destroyer for several minutes before disengaging and flying off toward the mainland. One carried the photograph of a visibly startled Navy commander.”

Perilous Passage,” by Robert Burton

Based on his calculations and observations through the bridge cameras, something didn’t add up. According to the GPS, they were positioned precisely in the center of the sea lane, and their plotted path suggested they should proceed without altering their course. However, his video camera monitors revealed that the peninsula of Centralia was now perilously close to their intended route, within a few degrees.”

Dreadnought 2050,” by Tracy MacSephney

By the time we arrive at the office, all those already on shift are engaged in battle with an airborne swarm attack. It’s clearly AGI only so no match for the Top Gun team, although the swarm is huge. I slip into a spare cubicle and signal for Thunder to take the cubicle next to me.”

OX-XO,” by Daniel Goff

After all the briefings, Col Marcus, SgtMaj Martin, LtCol Marini, and the OPSO LtCol Rose heard the morning brief by OX. That was the given name for their AI robot out of respect for the XO. OX’s metallic voice rang out a series of numbers and projections while it sat at the end of the table.”

Dawn’s Early Light,” by Ben Plotkin

Luca collapsed wet and exhausted on the deck next to the limp body. He stared up at the sky. It was a dark moonless night. He knew that once the sun set he had only a limited time to prepare for what was coming. His improvised search and rescue mission might have seriously compromised his timeline.”

Dropping Out of Sight West of Heligoland,” by Till Andrzejewski

“’Moritz, Kalle, put on the suit. We’ll get the torpedo out of the water.’ The two understood immediately. Nobody protested. It took them five minutes to put on the thermal suits and go out. In the meantime, Miriam had summarized and sent the most important data in an email and hoped that the connection would hold.”

War in the Dark,” by Ryan Belscamper

This close to the mainland, the Chinese had to know we were here. So far, I think they’ve ignored us, or we’d have all died a while ago. Judging from the fireworks, I think they’ll be looking for us now.”

For more CIMSEC Fiction Weeks, feel free to view our 2022, 2021, and 2020 fiction contests.

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at Content@cimsec.org.

Featured Image: Art created with Midjourney AI.

War in the Dark

Fiction Week

By Ryan Belscamper

Prologue

Everyone knew a war was coming. We’d been talking about it, and hearing about it for years. All the talking heads agreed, “No earlier than 2027, no later than 2030.” So of course it came as an absolute surprise to everyone when the war started in May of ’28. I watch a lot more of the news than other guys in my unit, so my surprise was more like, “Whoa, this is actually happening!”

Neither the U.S. or China wants to admit we’re actually fighting a war. Five aircraft carriers, twenty to fifty destroyers (ours and theirs) either sunk or badly damaged, ten or twenty thousand civilian casualties, mostly in Taiwan, a few cities wrecked, and exactly two nuclear weapons used in the first two and a half weeks. Definitely no war going on here. And I’m definitely not sitting in the middle of it.

Those first two and a half weeks were rough. Basically, both sides managed to knock out most of the other’s forces and capabilities. Every day the news had something dramatic: “Two U.S. amphib groups deploy Marines into Taipei,” then “Amphibious groups sunk by Chinese attack,” “Chinese invasion force sunk by U.S. aircraft,” “Nuclear weapon destroys U.S. carrier group,” “U.S. nuclear weapon detonated in Yellow Sea,” “Jinzhou, Dalian, Weifang, Changzhou, and Tianjin waterfronts destroyed.” One day the U.S. Navy was getting sunk, the next day the U.S. Navy was sinking the Chinese Navy. After those first couple weeks, the pace of the war dropped off, just because neither side could afford to keep up the earlier pace. The whole time, the Chinese kept dumping more troops into Taiwan.

Finally, some four-star got the bright idea that to keep Chinese troops out of Taiwan, they needed to be somewhere else, and the best plan anyone could come up with was to push Littoral Combat Regiments in close. Real close.

Moving Out

[22:45] So that’s why I’m here, two months later, riding a rubber boat in the middle of the night off this little island where my platoon has spent the last two weeks either avoiding detection, or trying to get noticed. It’s not even a very dark night; the lights of Hong Kong really brighten up the sky with their amber glow. Second platoon was actually up on the mainland, just north of the city a week ago. From what I hear they spent most of their time drawing giant penises everywhere they could. The rest of us have been counting how many ships have moved in and out of the port, and trying to figure out if any of them were military, or how much trade disruption the Navy is managing.

Tonight was different though. When the sun went down, a few of our guys broke into the lighthouse on the northeast corner of this island. They planted a bunch of charges on timers before heading to the extraction site. Word has it there was some more graffiti involved. The story is that White bought spray paint at some shop in the city while he was up there with second platoon. I can’t for the life of me figure out if anything that comes out of second platoon is true.

So, while they were planting their charges in the lighthouse, we were uncovering the three launchers we brought with us. At ten o’clock, as we were beating feet to the south side of the island, all twelve missiles launched. We could see the flares of the rocket motors going up as we jumped in our boats, and it wasn’t even a minute later when we started seeing flashes and hearing the “krRump” of those missiles hitting a whole bunch of ships moving out of port. This close to the mainland, the Chinese had to know we were here. So far, I think they’ve ignored us, or we’d have all died a while ago. Judging from the fireworks, I think they’ll be looking for us now.

Okay, boats are turning west. Re-group on Dawanshan. The plan, as I understand it, is we spend about two days laying low on Dawanshan doing damage assessment, then they pull us out of here. These last couple of weeks were kind of funny, like a teenage camping trip with weapons. But as I watch that lighthouse explode behind us, my feelings are changing fast. We’re not a comedy sideshow anymore. This war is real, and we just invited the whole Chinese army to come looking for us. I could wade to the mainland from here. Five minutes pass, and we’re passing the edge of the island now, and I can see the fires burning on the water. I count them; seven, eight, no ten ships ablaze barely out of the harbor. They’re too far away to tell for sure, but I think those two were containerships, and that one is definitely a frigate. All of the others are getting covered in too much smoke to even guess what they were. We did that, and it looks like a horror movie. Okay, I have to face it. Maybe two days till our little excursion is over, and I’m scared.

The Next Morning, 0630

It took us another hour to make it out here to Dawanshan, where Third Platoon has been setting up a defensive net. The sun is rising now, and I can see a lot of smoke still coming from the northeast. Looking a little further to the left, I can see a lot of grey-blue planes flying into the airport. There is definitely a military buildup going on there, and anyone with an IQ over seven knows they’re coming after us. There’s a break in the cargo aircraft, so I grab the binoculars. Looks like two squadrons of helicopters moving into town too. A hundred and fifty of us, less than ten miles away, with no armor, and no air support, versus all of that. I think those planes carry about two hundred troops each, and I saw at least ten of them land. I guess the exact count doesn’t matter, because another flight is coming in now.

[1530] For the second time today, we watch as Chinese helicopters swarm over one of the other islands. Through binoculars, I count fifteen choppers. Five are attack choppers, and circle around a lot. The other ten must be transports, because they just hover over an area for a minute or so, then move away fast. Apparently that is how they are looking for us – rappel about a hundred soldiers down and scour the island. We spent those first two weeks moving from island to island, so I’m certain they’ve found some of second platoon’s artwork by now. There’s no question they found the launchers we abandoned, that was the first island they searched, and medium-sized trucks with giant anti-ship missile launchers on the back aren’t so hard to find. It takes a few hours before the attack choppers leave, they must’ve figured out we aren’t there anymore.

Around 1800 Carlos reports sighting a third group of aircraft moving over yet another island. Call it two hours between searches, and ten or twelve islands out here worth the name. I count on my fingers and come to an ugly conclusion – they will search this island before we leave.

Ambush

[Next Day, 1400] My earpiece is bugging me with its low hum of static, but I don’t dare move to adjust it. Every couple of minutes, I heard the faint hum of an electric quadcopter just over the trees. I can’t see a thing other than open ground ahead of me. The thermal blanket is making me sweat, and I’ve got a cramp in my left leg from not moving for so long. I can’t hear the drones anymore, they are completely drowned out by the chop-chop of approaching helicopters. Two helicopters fly past, before a third one stops and hovers right over me. Us. It stops to hover over my fireteam. Each of us are individually concealed, and it is so easy to forget that I am not alone here on the ground.

The end of a rope smacks me on the back, then bounces just a few feet away. Nothing over the earpiece yet. Not that I could hear anything over the pounding of my own heart right now anyhow. Boots appear right in front of my face, and I thank the stars I wasn’t just stepped on. Two more pair appear in turn, and the fourth pair actually step on my rifle as they walk away. The rotor beat of the helicopter is the only reason they can’t hear me breathing. The helicopter leaves, and I can see five soldiers walking away from me, into the small woods right ahead. I was expecting ten, the other five must be behind me somewhere.

“Hold. Second wave approaching.” The low, calm voice over the earpiece almost makes me jump from the sudden fright. I see a quick movement in front of me, I think Carlos did jump. Sure enough, the beating of rotor blades is growing louder again. The first five soldiers are just out of sight now, and I pray the second group doesn’t step on us like they did.

“Now.”

One word. LT didn’t even sound excited about it at all. I don’t jump this time, the command was given so dispassionately. The helicopters are almost overhead when I hear the firing of rocket motors in every direction. As the helicopters overheard explode in unison, the squad of enemy soldiers that almost stepped on us comes bursting back through the trees. I fire, and fire again. First guy down, and I can’t even line up a shot on the second man right in front of me before he drops to the ground, riddled with bullets. I hear a few more shots, and wet thumps behind me as the other half squad falls. Echoes of gunfire ring the area, but then stop. A few crashes of burning machinery, a scream of pain and two more rifle shots, then silence.

Wait, that was it? As I collect my senses, I realize that couldn’t have lasted more than ten seconds, fifteen tops. What kind of firefight is over in ten seconds?  Rising from our positions, this empty clearing is suddenly occupied by my fireteam. We form up on Sergeant Rice, and sweep the area. Dead bodies ahead of and behind us. A hundred feet later toy quadcopters lay disabled on the ground. Two go into foil bags, the rest we just stomp on. In a matter of minutes, the entire island is swept, and the all-clear signal is given. Secondary positions are occupied, as we wait for either nightfall or a more robust attack. The next eight hours are the most exhausting stillness of my life.

One of the attack helicopter pilots survived. They pulled him out of the cockpit, put a splint on his arm, and tied him to a tree after Doc shot him full of morphine. Then they raided what was left of his aircraft for all the electronics, manuals, and maintenance records they could find. “They” being from second platoon, I’m guessing there was some artwork on the pilot’s face.

Egress

[2230] We are cutting this close. Climbing into our rubber craft, I can hear the helicopters approaching. Never mind, we’re all onboard, and putting ourselves as far from here as we can. I can see the beach behind us, all clear. Fifteen other boats are in the water with us, all heading south. Our wakes glow like rocket trails in my night-vision goggles. Panic strikes, our wakes are glowing! One of the helicopters is turning now, heading right towards us. We’ve got a head start, but it’s closing fast and as far as I can tell, we’re just heading into open ocean. Looking further out to the sides, I see two small patrol craft. We’ve gotten this far, not a scratch on any of us, and now we are all going to die! I scan ahead of our course, and I can see yet another mast. Great, pinned in by three patrol craft, chased by helicopters, and pretty much devoid of any useful weapons for this fight. Cynicism must be self-propagating, because my goggles just flew off when we hit that last wave.

The two patrol craft on either side of our flotilla of rubber boats are sweeping the waves with searchlights. I see one of the other boats caught in the beam, and I watch as a rocket flies from the helicopter annihilating ten helpless Marines. Another boat is caught in a searchlight, and ten more die. There is a rattle of machine gun fire from one of the patrol boats, but I have no idea what they are shooting at or if they hit any more of us. The searchlights continue to sweep, and one locks right on my boat. Another missile or rocket flares up from the boat in front of us. This one arcs through the air, coming right at the boat I’m in.

The missile sails higher overhead, past us, and brings the helicopter down in a flaming wreck before it sinks beneath the waves. Two more missiles flare up, going to the sides this time, and both of the flanking patrol craft are hit. One more missile goes into the air. I track it until the motor burns out. Following the arc, I see a fireball well behind us. Was that the second helicopter? It had to be.

Our boats are turning now, coming up right behind the vessel which blocked our path. This is no patrol craft, this is a ship. I can only see traces of the outline above me, but that loading ramp at the back, twelve feet above the waterline can only mean one thing. The “Little Crappy Ship” just saved us. Sailors aboard make good time dragging every one of us up into the mission bay. LT is the last aboard, and I hear the ships engines spooling up as we start moving fast through the water. I don’t need my goggles to see the wake kicking up behind the ship. Looking through the closing doors of the mission bay, the wake is an incandescent volcano of water. I catch one last view of the city lights before the doors finish closing.

I hear the squad leaders taking muster, but I’m not the senior guy, so that isn’t my problem. I really don’t want to think about why they’re taking a muster right now. That’ll be the only thing any of us think about for a while, so it can wait till tomorrow. I look for a place to get some sleep.

Ryan Belscamper is a former U.S. Navy Firecontrolman, now working as a U.S. Navy civilian to maintain our Navy’s readiness.

Featured Image: Art created with Midjourney AI.

Fostering the Discussion on Securing the Seas.