Mastering Expeditionary IUU Fisheries Enforcement in the Bahamas

By James Martin and Jasper Campbell

The U.S. Coast Guard has pivoted towards sustained operations in the Western Indo-Pacific Ocean. The Commandant of the Coast Guard, Adm. Karl Schultz, recently outlined significant plans for the region in several speeches and strategic documents.1 The strategy focuses on working with regional partner nations in an effort to “make the United States the partner nation of choice.” Adm. Shultz cites illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing as a chief concern, along with preserving the rules-based order.2 He notes that this paradigm shift, further articulated in the Coast Guard’s IUU Fishing Strategic Outlook, was “not intended to be a counter China Strategy…however China happens to be one of the biggest perpetrators of IUU fishing and IUU fishing is a global threat.”3 This pivot represents one of the most fundamental shifts in missions, one that places them directly in the same conversation as strategic competition.

On its face, the IUU Fishing Strategic Outlook necessitates sustained operations in the far reaches of the Western Pacific. However, in order to achieve the Commandant’s vision for becoming the partner of choice, the Coast Guard only need look 50 miles east of Florida to the Bahamas.4 The Bahamas is an archipelagic nation beleaguered by competing fisheries claims, including some coming from U.S. commercial and recreational fishermen. It presents a ready-made test bed for partner building and enforcing fisheries violations without the tyranny of distance. It has the further benefit of strengthening partnerships with the nation that enjoys the closest maritime boundary to the United States outside of Mexico and Canada, and where Chinese economic influence is finding a foothold.5 It is an environment where small U.S. Coast Guard cutters or “patrol boats” are uniquely suited to sustained law enforcement operations in shallow littorals.

The Problem

The Bahamas is comprised of over 600 banks and cays, stretching some 100,000 square miles.6 Its porous and remote maritime borders are a significant challenge for law enforcement, perhaps the most ready illustration of which is the rampant illegal fishing on the southern edge of the Bahamas by Dominican Republic fishermen.6 Dominican fishermen deploy from large, 150-175-foot long motherships in small dinghies and dive using homemade air compressors to harvest as much lobster, conch, and grouper and snapper species as possible. It is estimated that these illegal poaching ventures return to port with over 70,000 pounds of ill-gotten seafood in a single trip, and that they account for 35% of the known Bahamian lobster export of 12.5 million lobsters per year.7

As many as 65 other foreign countries have commercial fishing fleets that use Dominican ports as a starting point for illegal incursions into Bahamian waters.6 Illegal fishing ventures are often a nexus for other illicit activities, such as human smuggling and narcotics trafficking. In addition to the obvious deleterious economic impacts, IUU fishing precipitates second order economic effects, such as deterring tourism in the southern Bahamas from recreational boaters and anglers who are eager to avoid association with illegal activity.Meanwhile, farther north, a different illegal fishing threat starves the Bahamian economy. The Florida Fish and Wildlife commission estimates that as many as 50 recreational boats per day cross the Florida Straits to the Bahamas.8 Many are well within their rights to catch fish in Bahamian waters and transit back to Florida, provided they have cleared Bahamian customs and abide by specific regulations on how the catch is kept.8 Unfortunately, while most boaters maintain the correct permits and clear customs, in effect, paying the Bahamians their due for harvesting their natural resources, a great many do not.

It is well known in South Florida boating circles that South Florida-based commercial and recreational fishermen shoot across the Florida Straits to remote portions of the Great Bahama Bank, south of Bimini, to fill their coolers. While this perfidy is well known by word of mouth, no official studies on the scope of the problem exist. Consequently, enforcement mechanisms are left wanting. Occasionally, a returning fisherman may run afoul of a Coast Guard cutter on patrol, but most boaters make the 50-70-mile trip completely undetected by Bahamian or U.S. law enforcement. Because of the flagrant violations in the Southern Bahamas, “white collar” fisheries violations in the Northern Bahamas from U.S. citizens go largely unpoliced. With a surface force of merely eleven ships and a workforce operating at one-third capacity due to COVID-19, the Royal Bahamian Defense Force (RBDF) cannot adequately enforce the competing IUU fishing fronts.7,9 Along with debilitating natural disasters, such as Hurricane Dorian in 2018, IUU fishing undermines Bahamian maritime sovereignty and compounds economic fragility.

Becoming the Partner of Choice

While the Coast Guard’s IUU Fishing Strategic Outlook is global in nature, the constructs it will need to employ in order to achieve success have not been tested on a global scale. Capital assets such as the National Security Cutters (NSC) and soon-to-be active Offshore Patrol Cutter (OPC) possess the endurance and crew capacity to support multi-month deployments across affected regions. However, much of the effort required to address IUU fishing will invariably fall on small, capable patrol assets due to the shallow littoral environments that characterize the fishing grounds of the Western Pacific and Oceania. These environments cannot facilitate the same robust logistics chains on which the Coast Guard relies to sustain and maintain cutters in the United States or at its more remote facilities in Bahrain or Guam. Sustained IUU enforcement operations in regions like the Western Pacific require nimble assets such as the Coast Guard’s Fast Response Cutter (FRC) to traverse dense transit and fishing regions. These expeditionary style deployments will likely require refueling and resupplying in under-supported local ports for several months at a time, which can be extremely taxing for both crew and cutter.10

Within this context, it stands to reason that the Coast Guard should look to regional opportunities like the Bahamas to develop the familiarity necessary to adequately support these operations in distant waters. Bahamian waters are ideal for testing the operational schemas on which the Coast Guard will rely to affect successful IUU enforcement operations globally. The first step towards affecting this outcome is to establish a legal framework to allow Coast Guard cutters persistent access to Bahamian waters. A ready framework for this might be the existing Operation Bahamas Turks and Caicos (OPBAT), a multi-agency framework spearheaded by the U.S. Coast Guard that allows Coast Guard aviation assets and other Department of Homeland Security agencies to assist with counter-narcotics, migrant interdictions, and Search and Rescue missions in the Bahamas.11 U.S. Coast Guard cutters would ideally be paired with RBDF ship riders, imbuing them with Bahamian law enforcement authorities. With such authorities, U.S. cutters would be able to conduct routine patrols deep into Bahamian waters to execute IUU fishing enforcement operations. The interception of a September 2020 illegal fishing venture by the Coast Guard and RBDF venture is cause for celebration.12 Despite this success, joint enforcement efforts are sporadic at best. In order to effectively prosecute the IUU fisheries mission, efforts must be sustained and repeatable.

Fortunately, Coast Guard District Seven, encompassing the Southeastern United States, is home to 18, soon-to-be 20 Fast Response Cutters by 2022.13 With 64 planned FRCs, if the IUU fishing demand signal in the Bahamas indicates more are needed, more could be allocated to District Seven. A wealth of assets and short transits will be a boon to addressing illegal activities in the Bahamas and will build the necessary service “muscle memory” for counter IUU operations in archipelagic zones reminiscent of Pacific Island nations. Key Florida Coast Guard hubs in Miami and Key West are a short transit away and could serve as critical risk mitigators, allowing the Coast Guard flexibility to facilitate sustainment deep into Bahamian waters. ‘1.0 Coverage,’ similar to the Coast Guard’s congressional mandate for a high-endurance cutter to be retained in the Bering Sea at all times, could provide a similar force laydown model.14 It would provide enough operational flexibility to identify knowledge gaps and develop tactics in countering the IUU scourge.

This concept of operations can be implemented immediately; the assets necessary are in place and nothing needs to be procured. The only necessary action item is reaching a memorandum of understanding with the Bahamian government to allow cutters access to their territorial waters. There are, of course, objectors to the Coast Guard’s presence in the Western Indo-Pacific, whether because of imperialist optics or the notion that the Coast Guard should focus on guarding U.S. coasts instead of worrying about other nation’s problems.15 However, at a fundamental level, shoring up the maritime sovereignty of Western Indo-Pacific nations only strengthens U.S. national security in the region. If predatory distance water fleets are allowed to make wanton incursions into territorial waters to harvest a country’s natural resources, it undermines their sovereignty and exacerbates food insecurity. Further, it normalizes illegal behavior.

This same thinking applies to the Bahamas. By helping Bahamians shore up their maritime sovereignty with IUU fishing initiatives spearheaded by the Coast Guard, the United States will have a stabilizing effect on the Bahamian economy and security. Due to the persistent presence counter IUU operations require, they will have second order effects in deterring other illegal activities that the Coast Guard has expertise in prosecuting, such as counter narcotics trafficking and human smuggling. The United States has a vested interest in discouraging these illegal activities before they are able to proliferate through the perforated banks and cays that comprise the Bahamas. These illegal ventures make their way to the Western Bahamas, where detection windows are drastically reduced; only a 50-70 mile run across the Florida straits separates the United States from the Bahamas. The third order effects of “harvesting an easy win” in the Bahamas is that it infuses Coast Guard activities in the Western Indo-Pacific with legitimacy, bolstered by obvious and replicable success close to home.

Conclusion

With the specter of strategic competition, the mandate of the Coast Guard’s IUU Fishing Strategic Outlook requires expertise not only in the distant waters of the Western Indo-Pacific but also much closer to home in the Caribbean basin. In the Bahamas, the U.S. Coast Guard can establish a proof of concept in executing counter IUU operations without contending with the tyranny of distance or a lack of assets. This approach will deter illegal maritime activity in a nation that shares a porous maritime border with the United States, shoring up Bahamian maritime sovereignty while bolstering U.S. national security. If the Coast Guard spearheads a counter IUU fishing initiative in the Bahamas, competitors and allies alike will soon be put on notice that the Coast Guard has mastered expeditionary IUU fisheries enforcement.

Lieutenant James Martin is a Coast Guard Cutterman who has served aboard three Coast Guard cutters, including as commanding officer of the USCGC Ibis (WPB-87338). He holds a bachelor’s degree with honors in naval architecture and marine engineering from the U.S. Coast Guard Academy.

Lieutenant Jasper Campbell served on active duty for six years in the afloat and C5Icommunities. He is currently on a sabbatical, launching a technology startup, and hopes to return to sea in 2023 upon resuming active duty. He holds a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from the U.S. Coast Guard Academy.

References

1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2020/09/27/in-a-new-initiative-the-us-coast-guard-targets-illegal-fishing/

2. https://www.uscg.mil/Portals/0/Images/iuu/IUU_Strategic_Outlook_2020_FINAL.pdf

3. https://cimsec.org/sea-control-219-uscg-commandant-admiral-karl-schultz/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Sea-Control-CIMSEC+%28Sea+Control%29

4. https://warontherocks.com/2021/10/the-bahamas-a-close-but-unfamiliar-u-s-partner/

5. https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/delpf/vol28/iss2/5/

6. http://rbdf.gov.bs/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Maritime-Security-Plan-2021.pdf

7. https://ideas.ted.com/an-encounter-with-poachers-in-the-bahamas/

8.https://myfwc.com/fishing/saltwater/recreational/bahamas/

9.  https://www.damen.com/en/news/2013/04/patrol_vessels_for_royal_bahamas_defence_force

10. https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCG/bulletins/2a93090

11. https://www.dea.gov/press-releases/2015/09/09/opbat-assists-25-million-drug-bust-bahamas

12. https://www.atlanticarea.uscg.mil/Our-Organization/District-7/Units/

13. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/United%20States%20Coast%20Guard%20-%20Bering%20Sea%20and%20Arctic%20Region%20Coverage_0.pdf

14. https://blog.usni.org/posts/2020/09/21/the-u-s-coast-guard-should-guard-the-u-s-coasts

Featured image: the U.S. Coast Guard and Royal Bahamas Defence Force crew interdict two Dominican Republic-flagged ships illegally fishing off Diamond Point, Great Bahama Bank, September 17, 2020. (Credit: Royal Bahamas Defence Forces)

Sea Control 310 – The Lion & The Mouse with LTC Laura Keenan

By Marie Williams

Lt. Colonel Laura Keenan joins the program to discuss her Strategy Bridge #WritingContest2021 prize-winning article, “The Lion and The Mouse: The Need for Greater U.S. Focus in the Pacific Islands,” and her strategy for the United States to build meaningful partner capacity in the Pacific Island Countries.

Download Sea Control 310 – The Lion & The Mouse with LTC Laura Keenan

Links

1. Eleanor Roosevelt Papers Project. In the South Pacific War Zone (1943).
2. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Knowledge Platform. Kiribati.
3. “Soft Power,” by Joseph S. Nye, Foreign Policy, No. 80, Autumn, 1990.
4. The Climate Reality Project.
5. U.S. House of Representatives. The Strategic Importance of the Pacific Islands.
6. U.S. Department of Defense. DOD Climate Assessment Tool (DCAT).
7. U.S. Department of Defense. Fiscal Year 2022 Budget Request.
8. “The Pacific Deterrence Initiative: Peace through Strength in the Indo-Pacific,” by Sen. Jim Inhofe and Sen. Jack Reed, War on the Rocks, May 28, 2020.
9. Secretary Hillary Clinton. “Remarks at the Pacific Islands Forum Post-Forum Dialogue.” August 31, 2012.

Marie Williams is Co-Host of the Sea Control podcast. Contact the podcast team at [email protected].

Uncomfortable Expositions for Unpopular Questions #1: Expendable Aircraft on Call

By Collin Fox and Harrison Schramm

This is the first in a series of articles that ask necessary but unpopular questions of the West’s defense-industrial complex. The best questions for this series are also the worst: they should be unpopular to ask and produce disquieting answers — when an answer is even possible. Got a provocative question? Send it to [email protected].

Choose your own adventure: How is America’s next great power war most likely to end? (Pick one.)

A: The conflict is over rapidly, the U.S. is victorious, life goes on, and there’s nothing to analyze, 

B: The conflict is over rapidly, the U.S. is defeated, and there’s nothing to analyze, or

C: The conflict is over quickly, everyone is dead, and there is nothing to analyze.

If you chose ‘none of the above,’ you probably don’t have a future as a late 80’s action screenwriter,1 but you might have one as a strategist.

Let’s pull the thread on the implicitly rejected option D: The conflict drags on. The defense establishment’s preoccupation with nuclear conflict throughout the Cold War has left a poisonous fallout of assumptions with an unexpectedly long half-life, chiefly the implicit expectation for a short, sharp conflict between great powers. While this expectation has many repercussions, from combat logistics to global economics to conflict termination, the attrition of combat aircraft is the topic today.

Each Services’ jet fighter community chase highly favorable attrition ratios; these cannot be assumed for a future conflict. Although current U.S. aircraft are exquisite feats of engineering that border on the miraculous, the trend creates an (un)virtuous cycle: Fewer aircraft need to be more exquisitely engineered, and more exquisite aircraft are fewer in number. This cycle is perhaps best described by Norman Augustine: “In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one tactical aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3½ days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.”

In contrast, a conventional conflict against a peer adversary could very easily result in the rapid attrition of top-line munitions and aircraft, both in the air and on the ground. From there, the war would become an entrenched stalemate – an admittedly unpopular yet plausible proposition. What actions should the United States and its allies take now as a hedging strategy?

The idea of a stalemated war in the skies over the sea against China or Russia echoes the First World War’s Western Front. Here, a stalemate is not defined by earthworks and wire across physical territory, but rather the inability to field a second wave of air power after the first is lost. American airpower would get very thin very fast after removing F-22s and F-35s from the flightline, and even more so when the runway itself becomes cratered rubble scattered with burning aircraft. 

In the other corner, China’s significant production capabilities are neither unlimited nor invincible. The need for experienced replacement pilots to operate replacement aircraft may also be a critical factor in a future great power war, just as it was for Imperial Japan. In such a future, the ability to rapidly reconstitute a force of “acceptable” — vice “exquisite” aircraft will be a vitally important factor for the United States to support war termination on favorable terms.

A threefold sequential hedging strategy can preserve and expand aerial combat power against rapid attrition. The first tenant is that an aircraft saved is an aircraft produced. Existing exquisite platforms need to be carefully employed and well-protected by legions of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs). Secondly, the United States should seriously consider – and exercise – a true capacity to quickly return retired (“mothballed”) aircraft to active status. Third, and perhaps most importantly, the United States should invest in the design and prototype production of new, replacement combat aircraft, both manned and unmanned, that are designed to be built quickly and in large numbers.

No plan survives first contact with the adversary

General war is (generally) unpredictable. Clausewitz underscores the play of random chance and probability in war; Sun Tzu advises commanders to win without fighting. After all, when politics can deliver desired aims with certainty, why escalate to the chaotic friction of combat? The present authors have formal education in applied probability and endorse the wisdom of getting a sure thing over a wager with blurry odds. A great power war in the coming decades would likely result from strategic miscalculation by one or more belligerents – namely, the eventual loser(s) – which would create a heady and uncertain operational fog in the opening engagements. Many commanders would be tempted to extract a rapid, decisive victory from this melee. In an era of long-range, precision guided munitions fired across expansive distances, combat aircraft will be the closest thing to shock troops charging to the front line, the bloody fray of attrition warfare.

For the United States and its Allies, the risk to force for exquisite and hard-t0-replace platforms needs to be understood, acknowledged, and mitigated before they are exposed to risk in high-stakes battles. One way to mitigate the risk to force is to rely on unmanned systems; however, as these systems have similar – or in some cases, greater – complexity to manned systems, we expect that they will be subject to the same production shortages as manned systems. 

Along this line of effort, an attractive and ongoing approach is to develop risk-worthy UCAVs, which would blunt enemy attacks while also distributing friendly sensors and weapons. These platforms are a low-hanging fruit, relatively inexpensive, and ready for accelerated operational development after decades of development. In addition to these operational considerations, producing these platforms in significant quantities in the near future would also help maintain the industrial base for accelerating production should the need arise.

The Replacements

Assume for a moment that the 80’s screenwriters are wrong, and a great power war drags on through months and years. What mitigations should the U.S. put in place now? An extended great power conflict would require a fallback capability of ‘second tier’ aircraft. Much of this fallback capacity already exists in the form of reserve and Air National Guard squadrons, many of which would likely see combat. Nevertheless, the logic of attrition also applies to these reserve aviation forces. Aviation-specific manpower policies, motivated in part by Imperial Japan’s pilot shortfall in WWII, grant a relative abundance of trained and experienced American combat aviators. Even so, they still need aircraft to fly.

Fortunately, the United States also has a large collection of retired but ‘preserved’ aircraft, most of which are at the ‘boneyard’, at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona. While the modernization of current air wings are underway, budgeteers would do well to broadly consider service life extension programs (SLEP) for the ‘best’ past generation aircraft as a potential backfill for the attrition of manned aircraft and invest in greater capacity to accelerate the same.

While increasing funding for maintaining, preserving, and regenerating aircraft in the ‘boneyard’ is one course of action, it is admittedly not well-aligned with the broad incentives of either government or industry (with the possible exception of Arizona’s 2nd congressional district2).

A complementary approach is to prepare plans ‘at the ready’ for aircraft that can be rapidly built and fielded. For these aircraft specifically, the more parts they have in common with contemporary military (and civilian) aircraft, the better. 

“Good Enough” means both things: good must be good and enough must be enough. 

The first two hedges are admittedly expedient stopgaps, not optimal solutions. The most likely operational environment (the Indo-Pacific) and the most likely/dangerous belligerent (China) frames the required operational capabilities for replacement aircraft: They must have long range to be relevant across the vast distances of the Pacific and should be low-observable to evade detection and survive against capable air defenses. 

Clear and well-justified system requirements should be based on a stable, reasonable, and coherent vision of the planned operational environment. The fiscal operational environment for this concept also means that it should be designed for rapid production and moderate cost, and by extension, low technological risk. Speed of production is a key performance parameter. Other performance parameters, like airspeed, should be strictly scoped against requirements creep.

Let good be good and enough be enough.

The Department of Defense should start with these modest and well-justified requirements to then develop progressive iterations of merely sufficient designs. Early and detailed systems engineering can help reduce risk, as can the conscious integration of mature technologies over the exotic temptation of leap-ahead capabilities. Government-ownership of these designs would allow widespread and more competitive aircraft production if the need ever arose, in keeping with the successful development and acquisition model of the Tomahawk cruise missile. A wide base of the American manufacturing and political establishment could be incentivized to invest in aerospace manufacturing capacity through the grant mechanism previously described in Distributed Manufacturing for Distributed Lethality

Summation 

The uncomfortable part of this question is not overcoming an engineering challenge or reinforcing the industrial base. It’s the recognition of just how destructive a future great power war would be, and that our best, most expensive ‘kit’ will likely be the first to be lost. It’s the acknowledgement of just how important a fieldable ‘second line’ of aircraft could be as a hedging strategy should most of each side’s exquisite first rate forces end up on each other’s spears. 

Lieutenant Commander Collin Fox, U.S. Navy, is a foreign area officer serving as a military advisor with the Department of State. He is a graduate of the Naval Postgraduate School and the Chilean Naval War College.

Harrison Schramm is a retired Naval Aviator. He is President of the Analytics Society of INFORMS and a Principal Research Scientist at Group W. 

The views presented are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of any institution with which they are affiliated.

Endnotes

1. In turn: A. “Top Gun”, “The Final Countdown”, etc;, B. “Red Dawn”, C. “The Morning After.”

2. Where “the boneyard” is located.

Featured Image: Navy aircraft from the Nimitz Carrier Strike Force and a B-52 bomber from Barksdale Air Force Base conduct integrated joint air operations over the South China Sea. (Lt. Cmdr. Joseph Stephens/Navy)

Sea Control 309 – Lessons from LCS with Emma Salisbury

By Jared Samuelson

Emma Salisbury joins the podcast for a deep dive into the military-industrial complex as we explore her War on the Rocks article, “Lessons on the Littoral Combat Ship.”

Download Sea Control 309 – Lessons from LCS with Emma Salisbury

Links

1. “Lessons from the Littoral Combat Ship,” by Emma Salisbury, War on the Rocks, November 15, 2021.

Jared Samuelson is Co-Host and Executive Producer of the Sea Control podcast. Contact him at [email protected].

This episode was edited and produced by Jonathan Selling.

Fostering the Discussion on Securing the Seas.