All posts by Dmitry Filipoff

CIMSEC’s Top 10 Articles of 2023

By Dmitry Filipoff

CIMSEC had an outstanding year in 2023. Numerous authors took to CIMSEC to offer compelling insights and analysis on a broad range of maritime security topics and naval affairs. We are continually grateful to our readership for following and contributing to the conversation on our pages. To close out the year, we are highlighting the top 10 CIMSEC articles of 2023, listed below in order of most viewed.

On behalf of the CIMSEC team, we hope you enjoy the holidays, and we look forward to continuing the conversation in an exciting new year.

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1. “An Allied Coast Guard Approach to Countering CCP Maritime Gray Zone Coercion,” by Jada Fraser

“An analysis of recent reforms to Japan’s coast guard presents several models that the USCG can build off. Such an approach recognizes current U.S. resource limitations and accounts for how an important U.S. ally at the forefront of countering CCG gray zone activities has pursued its own reforms, even while under similar and additional constraints.”

2. “A Fleet Adrift: The Mounting Risks of the U.S. Navy’s Force Development,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“Overall, the Navy’s major exercises often took a scripted character, where the outcomes were generally known beforehand and the opposition was usually made to lose. Training only one thing at a time against opposition that never wins barely scratches the surface of war, but for the most part this was the best the Navy could do to train its strike groups for years.”

3. “Fighting DMO, Pt. 8: China’s Anti-Ship Firepower and Mass Firing Schemes,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“As both great powers build up and evolve their anti-ship firepower, it is critical to assess their respective schemes of massing fires, and how these schemes may compete and interact in a specific operational context, such as a war sparked by a Taiwan contingency. Whichever side wields the superior combination of tools and methods for massing fires may earn a major advantage in deterrence and in conflict.”

4. “Tankers For The Pacific Fight: A Crisis in Capability,” by Stephen M. Carmel

“Not only does the U.S. lack the tonnage required to support a major conflict in the Pacific, it has no identifiable roadmap to obtain it. Without enough fuel, the most advanced capabilities and ships – even nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – will hardly be available for use. This is a crisis in capability that requires urgent and effective action.”

5. “Winning High-End War at Sea: Insights into the PLA Navy’s New Strategic Concept,” by Ryan D. Martinson

“Perhaps no one source of information is more valuable than Chinese media coverage of an important—but largely unknown—conference of PLAN admirals held at the end of 2022, in the wake of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress. The available reporting on the conference sheds light on how to better understand how the PLAN sees its strategic priorities.”

6. “Fighting DMO, Pt. 1: Defining Distributed Maritime Operations and the Future of Naval Warfare,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“Distributed Maritime Operations can provide a framework for understanding modern naval warfare and illuminate its future. While plenty of unknowns remain, the DMO concept offers an important opportunity to foster debate on how to adapt naval warfighting and translate theory into practice.”

7. “Fighting DMO, Pt. 2: Anti-Ship Firepower and the Major Limits of the American Naval Arsenal,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“The ability to mass fires is fundamentally enabled by fielding a large number of long-range missiles across a wide variety of platforms. In terms of numbers, range, and variety, the U.S. military falls woefully short. The U.S. military cannot execute the tactic of distributed massed fires against warships today because it simply does not have the weapons to make it possible. Its current anti-ship missile firepower is extremely concentrated in aircraft carriers and tightly stretched thin everywhere else.”

8. “Island Blitz: A Campaign Analysis of a Taiwan Takeover by the PLA,” by Max Stewart

“This campaign analysis seeks to determine how long U.S. decision-makers can realistically have those debates before the PLA seizes Taipei and the window for effective intervention with military force has closed. It does so by employing analytical modeling, informed by historical data, to determine how long the Taiwanese can resist a Chinese invasion absent direct U.S. military intervention given best-case-scenario timelines for the PLA.”

9. “Fighting DMO, Pt. 7: The Future of the Aircraft Carrier in Distributed Warfighting,” by Dmitry Filipoff

“For distributed warfighting at sea, there is a clear argument to be made for the vital role of naval aviation, whether it must come from aircraft carriers or somewhere else. Some of these arguments are couched in the fact that many of the premier weapons of modern naval warfare are themselves fast airborne payloads, that warships are mostly blind to spaces of enormous tactical consequence, and that air superiority is a powerful enabler of information superiority.”

10. “Cuban Missile Crisis: Soviet Submarines Attack?” by LtCol Brent Stricker

“Vague orders on the use of nuclear tipped torpedoes and the heat and confusion might have caused a local commander to launch these weapons, dragging two nuclear powers into an escalating exchange both desperately wanted to avoid. This potentially escalatory exchange at a pivotal moment in the Cuban Missile Crisis offers a cautionary tale for the continuing conflict in Ukraine.”

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at [email protected].

Featured Image: The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) transits the South China Sea on June 18, 2021, with the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Halsey (DDG 97) and the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Shiloh (CG 67). (MC1 Rawad Madanat/Navy)

Fiction Week Concludes on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

For the past two weeks, CIMSEC published short stories submitted in response to our call for fiction. Authors illuminated a variety of future scenarios and dynamics as they explored how conflict and competition may transform. The featured authors are listed below, and we thank them for their excellent contributions.

SAG-58,” by Tyler Totten

Taken as a group, SAG-58 was one of the most powerful anti-air warfare assets afloat. Roark collected and analyzed all the group’s sensor data. Needing only milliseconds to consider a thousand options, the orders flew across the laser comms network.”

Wave Runner,” by H I Sutton

“The three hatched a plan. If the maritime militia vessels were indeed uncrewed, and if their camera were fixed in sleep mode, they could slip through by passing each vessel close astern. Slowly, methodically, they weaved their way through the ghost fleet. They could only hope, pray, that none of the cameras would spot them.”

Heavy Metal at Midnight,” by Karl Flynn

Beyond the constant sweeping of the antennae on the radar vehicles, there was no activity on the objective. Liu checked over the geometries of fire on his HUD. As expected, everything was as it should be – a near perfect L-shaped ambush with Staff Sergeant Dalton’s half of the platoon forming the base of the L to his right.”

In Perpetuity,” by Daniel Lee

This unit was abruptly interrupted by the supervisor. ‘What the hell is wrong with…!’ he started, his voice slightly muffled as though he was talking to someone else. ‘Unit eleven-three!’ he proceeded, his voice louder, angrier, and more directed, ‘I don’t need to explain myself to you! Follow my orders or I’m sending you to the yards to get scrapped!’”

Dead Men Tell No Tales,” by Brian Kerg

The pilothouse opened on the Chinese boat, and a lean, wiry man stepped out, holding his own megaphone. His sleeveless t-shirt and board shorts contrasted sharply with the black assault rifle slung to his body and the sheathed dagger at his hip. In highly polished English, he replied.”

The United States Vs. Charles Alan Ordway,” by David Strachan

For the first couple months it was just answering some general e-mail inquiries about concepts of operations or certain technologies. But then Henrik started asking me pretty pointed questions about my research at FathomWorks. Initially I pushed back, politely, and he would usually back down. But after a while he became very persistent.”

War is my Racket,” by Kevin Smith

“‘Faith Aerospace is not a private military company, or PMC, if that’s what you’re implying,’ said Sean. ‘We also don’t pull the trigger. The platforms we sent are leased. We just build and maintain the platform – weapons release is controlled by the client. The end user.’”

Vigilante Seven Two,” by Mike Barretta

“Complexity and connections mattered in consciousness. But serendipity, something sublime, had to happen to create Bob, and there was no reliable manufacturing process for the sublime. If such a rare thing as an AI could be construed as typical, then Bob was typical. It was a human-level intelligence in a technological package about the size of a melon.”

Hide and Seek,” by Paul Viscovich

“‘Have someone tune the radar and gin up an OPREP-3 Pinnacle. Report this as an enemy contact!’ The group of little airborne drones held their positions and followed the U.S. destroyer for several minutes before disengaging and flying off toward the mainland. One carried the photograph of a visibly startled Navy commander.”

Perilous Passage,” by Robert Burton

Based on his calculations and observations through the bridge cameras, something didn’t add up. According to the GPS, they were positioned precisely in the center of the sea lane, and their plotted path suggested they should proceed without altering their course. However, his video camera monitors revealed that the peninsula of Centralia was now perilously close to their intended route, within a few degrees.”

Dreadnought 2050,” by Tracy MacSephney

By the time we arrive at the office, all those already on shift are engaged in battle with an airborne swarm attack. It’s clearly AGI only so no match for the Top Gun team, although the swarm is huge. I slip into a spare cubicle and signal for Thunder to take the cubicle next to me.”

OX-XO,” by Daniel Goff

After all the briefings, Col Marcus, SgtMaj Martin, LtCol Marini, and the OPSO LtCol Rose heard the morning brief by OX. That was the given name for their AI robot out of respect for the XO. OX’s metallic voice rang out a series of numbers and projections while it sat at the end of the table.”

Dawn’s Early Light,” by Ben Plotkin

Luca collapsed wet and exhausted on the deck next to the limp body. He stared up at the sky. It was a dark moonless night. He knew that once the sun set he had only a limited time to prepare for what was coming. His improvised search and rescue mission might have seriously compromised his timeline.”

Dropping Out of Sight West of Heligoland,” by Till Andrzejewski

“’Moritz, Kalle, put on the suit. We’ll get the torpedo out of the water.’ The two understood immediately. Nobody protested. It took them five minutes to put on the thermal suits and go out. In the meantime, Miriam had summarized and sent the most important data in an email and hoped that the connection would hold.”

War in the Dark,” by Ryan Belscamper

This close to the mainland, the Chinese had to know we were here. So far, I think they’ve ignored us, or we’d have all died a while ago. Judging from the fireworks, I think they’ll be looking for us now.”

For more CIMSEC Fiction Weeks, feel free to view our 2022, 2021, and 2020 fiction contests.

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at [email protected].

Featured Image: Art created with Midjourney AI.

Fiction Week Kicks Off on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

For the next two weeks, CIMSEC will be featuring short story fiction submitted in response to our call for fiction. Through narrative fiction, authors explore the future of conflict and competition. From missile salvos to maritime militia, to Marine raids and espionage, these stories illuminate a wide variety of emerging security challenges and opportunities.

The featured authors are listed below, and we thank them for their excellent contributions.

SAG-58,” by Tyler Totten
Wave Runner,” by H I Sutton
Heavy Metal at Midnight,” by Karl Flynn
In Perpetuity,” by Daniel Lee
Dead Men Tell No Tales,” by Brian Kerg
The United States Vs. Charles Alan Ordway,” by David Strachan
War is my Racket,” by Kevin Smith
Vigilante Seven Two,” by Mike Barretta
Hide and Seek,” by Paul Viscovich
Perilous Passage,” by Robert Burton
Dreadnought 2050,” by Tracy MacSephney
OX-XO,” by Daniel Goff
Dawn’s Early Light,” by Ben Plotkin
Dropping Out of Sight West of Heligoland,” by Till Andrzejewski
War in the Dark,” by Ryan Belscamper

For more CIMSEC Fiction Weeks, feel free to view our 2022, 2021, and 2020 fiction contests.

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at [email protected].

Featured Image: Art created with Midjourney AI.

Integrated Naval Campaigning Topic Week Concludes on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

Last week CIMSEC featured articles submitted in response to our call for articles on integrated naval campaigning, issued in partnership with the Naval Postgraduate School Foundation.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy encouraged defense policymaker and the services to organize their efforts in the form of campaigns. These more long-term and integrated efforts aim to enhance competitiveness and unity of effort. For navies, there are abundant opportunities to structure efforts into campaigns. From competing with undersea gray zone activity in the Indo-Pacific, to leveraging unmanned systems to change a competitor’s risk calculus, navies can adopt more integrated and long-term methods of competition through campaigning. But navies must also understand their limits, whether it be force generation or other resource factors, to better understand the extent to which they can realistically pursue campaigns. Navies must carefully weigh these considerations are they structure their many efforts into concerted campaigns.

The featured authors are listed below, and we thank them for their excellent contributions.

Revise Force Generation to Create Campaigning Opportunities,” by CDR Brett LeFever

Looking at both sides of these resourcing strategies, the Navy needs to answer the hard questions of both campaigning capacity and effectiveness, allowing the department to evaluate campaigning with a budget lens. This could provide a different strategy for future defense budgets and resourcing.

The Bay of Bengal Gray Zone: U.S. Navy Roles in Integrated Campaigning,” by Mohammad Rubaiyat Rahman

The geostrategic situation in the Bay of Bengal reflects the need for a concept of integrated naval campaigning in support of a rules-based Indo-Pacific. The significance of this maritime zone is looming larger in the strategic calculus of the Indo-Pacific region and has become a central arena for gray zone competition, especially between Indian and Chinese maritime forces.

Designing Maritime Campaigns with Unmanned Systems: Overcoming the Innovation Paradox,” by James J. Wirtz

The Navy needs to consider how else it can leverage unmanned systems in campaigns, and how these systems can open up unique options for enhancing naval campaigns in pursuit of deterrence.

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at [email protected].

Featured Image: PACIFIC OCEAN (June 12, 2023) – An MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter from the “Screamin’ Indians” of Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 6 flies near the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Decatur (DDG 73) as it approaches the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68). (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Hannah Kantner)