All posts by Dmitry Filipoff

Force Structure Perspectives Series Kicks Off on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

CIMSEC is launching a special Force Structure Perspectives Series to provide insight into the new Battle Force 2045 fleet design that was recently announced by Secretary of Defense Esper. This new fleet design aims to revamp much of the U.S. Navy to make it more operationally flexible, capture advancements in technology and tactics, and ultimately make the fleet better able to deter and prevail in great power conflict.

CIMSEC invited select contributors to share their views on this new fleet design. In these wide-ranging interviews and pieces, contributors shared their thoughts on the benefits and pitfalls of this new fleet, lessons on the intervention of the Office of the Secretary of Defense into fleet design, and what it will take to make this new fleet real.

The featured contributors are listed below, and may be updated with additional contributors as the series unfolds.

Capt. Trip Barber (ret). on Building a New Fleet
Capt. Jeff Kline (ret.) on Bringing the Fleet Into the Robotics Age
Capt. Sam Tangredi (ret.) on Shopping for Studies

CDR Phil Pournelle (ret.) on Chasing Legacy Platforms
Col. T.X. Hammes (ret.) on Experimenting for Adaptation

Capt. Robert Rubel (ret.) on OSD Seizing Fleet Design
A Decisive Flotilla: Assessing the Hudson Fleet Design,” by Capt. Robert Rubel (ret.)
Congresswoman Elaine Luria on Getting Congress Involved
Dr. John T. Kuehn On Designing for the Long War
The Navy Should Stop Talking About the Future and Start Building It,” by Frank Goertner

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at Content@cimcsec.org.

Featured Image: SOUTH CHINA SEA (March 15, 2020) The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) leads ships from the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group and the America Expeditionary Strike Group during a transit of the South China Sea during a photo exercise, March 15, 2020. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Brandon Richardson/Released)

Regional Strategies Topic Week Concludes on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

CIMSEC received a tremendous response to our Project Trident’s call for articles on regional maritime powers and strategies, launched in partnership with the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies, the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University, and the Dominican Command and Naval Staff School. Authors from many regions of the world responded with analysis and insight on regional powers and their maritime security challenges. Among their many takeaways, several themes emerged from their contributions.

Some smaller and medium-sized nations are looking to expand their standing and roles, including going beyond being a provider of their own security to providers of regional security. Others are looking to take their own experience in dealing with local threats and export their know-how via cooperative exercises and exchanges. Some nations and navies are feeling compelled to take on a larger role in regional affairs, or are taking uncharacteristically assertive actions that are making waves, such as Turkey’s insistence on its own version of maritime rights in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The actions and ambitions of great powers are reverberating across the strategies of smaller and medium-sized nations. As great powers grow in military might and decisively alter the traditional military balance within a region, smaller powers feel compelled to adapt both militarily and diplomatically to bolster deterrence. Smaller and medium-sized nations, especially in Asia, have equipped their navies with lethal and advanced modern weaponry. They are increasingly exercising with one another and establishing deeper ties with respect to military cooperation. Great powers should take note, since as they disrupt the usual military calculations of a region they can precipitate determined countermeasures from smaller nations.

What is clear is that smaller and medium-sized navies can have major influence. Whether it be through preeminence within a nearby body of water or proximity to a heavily-trafficked chokepoint that would be highly contested in a major conflict, the roles and capabilities of regional powers should not be underestimated. Regional navies are on the frontlines of managing traditional and non-traditional threats, and are constantly mindful of the ever-evolving maritime security environment within their locales. 

Below are the articles that featured during the extended topic week, with excerpts. We thank these authors for their excellent contributions.

China’s Aircraft Carriers and Southeast Asia: Testing Coercive Naval Diplomacy?” by Shang-su Wu

“Since the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) commissioned its second aircraft carrier, the possibility of utilizing these capital ships for coercive diplomacy is becoming more real. In China’s surrounding areas, Southeast Asia would be most suitable for “carrier diplomacy” regarding the proximity, the relatively weak defenses of the regional countries, and the major territorial disputes in the South China Sea. However, Southeast Asian countries, with their military modernizations and geopolitical circumstances, would not be merely hopeless either.”

Illegal Fishing in the South Pacific: What Can the Chilean Navy Do?” by Francisco Martinez

The Chilean Navy is more than just a national warfighting force aimed at conventional deterrence. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, fires, and tsunamis are all examples of natural disasters that Chile faces in which the Navy is one of the first to provide support. Along with disaster relief and safeguarding life at sea, countering Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing is one of the most economically important duties of the Chilean Navy.”

Boats, Budget, and Boots: The Colombian Navy’s Challenges in International Cooperation” by Rafael Uribe Neira

“In recent years the Colombian Navy has undergone a well-planned but less-than-well executed modernization to exert sea control and counter regional threats in both the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean. After significant changes in doctrine and procurement, the institution still struggles to contribute to regional security despite being a key U.S. partner in the region.”

The Sino-Japanese Maritime Disputes in the East China Sea” by Yoichiro Sato

“While much focus is paid to the Chinese claim of sovereignty over the Senkakus (China calls them Diaoyu), the dispute over the islands is partially nested within a larger dispute over the broader Exclusive Economic Zone(EEZ)/Continental Shelf boundary dispute between the two countries. As such, the implications of the islands’ sovereignty over the broader maritime boundary dispute and the respective strategies of China and Japan warrant closer examination.”

The Israeli Navy in a Changing Security Environment” by Ehud (Udi) Eiran

“Looking forward, the Israeli Navy is facing a number of challenges. First, if the tensions with Iran, which manifest themselves in occasional air strikes in Syria, will expand, the navy may be called to further develop capabilities to reach Iranian shores. Israel is 1,500 km away from Iran, and the sea is an attractive route to access the Islamic Republic. Israel’s recent normalization of its relationship with the UAE and Bahrain might also make future Israeli naval deployments in the Arabian Gulf easier. There is also talk of a possible Iranian naval station in Syria, which may bring the maritime conflict closer to home.”

A South Pacific Island-Led Approach to Regional Maritime Security” by Michael van Ginkel

“Given the strong influence of the maritime space on the national economies and local communities within the South Pacific, the deleterious effects of non-traditional threats to human security in the maritime domain are of significant concern to the island nations. By further enhancing MDA, maritime law enforcement capacity, and security assistance capabilities, local South Pacific island governments and multilateral organizations can protect their maritime-based economies.”

Sweden and the Blue Society: New Challenges for a Small Navy” by Lars Wedin

“A small navy like the Swedish Navy does not seek to be able to project power on a global scale – not even on a regional one. It cannot protect SLOCs in contested areas far away. But it can, and must, promote and defend its interests at sea in its own area of interest.”

Turkey’s ‘Mavi Vatan’ Strategy and Rising Insecurity in the Eastern Mediterranean” by Capt. Andrew Norris, J.D., USCG (ret.) and Alexander Norris

“For the past several years, Turkey has leveraged its regional economic, political, and military superiority to aggressively assert a claim over contested, potentially oil-rich regions of the Eastern Mediterranean. This hegemonic strategy, domestically referred to as “Mavi Vatan,” or “blue homeland,” has most recently manifested itself in Turkey’s deployment of the seismic vessel Oruç Reis with a naval escort to disputed waters south and west of Cyprus. Despite widespread and growing international criticism of this doctrine and its associated activities, Turkey has so far remained steadfast in its resolve.”

Between the Giants: The Future of the Taiwanese Navy in an Era of Great Power Competition” by Jonathan Selling

“In this new world of enhanced competition between the United States and China, no nation has more reason to be concerned than the island nation of Taiwan. Claimed by China, and largely protected by the United States, Taiwan cannot avoid being drawn into the competition. Because of its unsettled political status, Taiwan could easily become a flashpoint between the two powers.”

Vietnam’s Struggles in the South China Sea: Challenges and Opportunities” by Viet Hung Nguyen Cao

“With only weak, symbolic reactions to China’s aggression, Vietnam is without a proactive or effective strategy to fight back. There are policies that Vietnam should adopt, but at the heart of these policies is the need for more international cooperation in resolving the issues linked to China’s strategy.”

Southeast Asia: A New Strategic Nexus for Japan’s Maritime Strategy” by John Bradford

“With all branches of Japan state power now investing in Southeast Asian maritime security, this region is cementing as a new nexus in Japan’s maritime strategy. The scope, strategic intent, and likely future development of Japan’s maritime security activities in Southeast Asia merits closer examination.”

Unraveling China with Soft Balancing: Malaysia, ASEAN, and the South China Sea” by Afdal Izal

“As dynamic as the international community and regional bloc is today, can ASEAN continue to make its relations work in spite of the great power rivalry near its shores? Will each member nation play by the ‘ASEAN way’ and with ‘ASEAN centrality’ when it comes to navigating the might of the U.S. and China? Malaysia offers an interesting case study, and especially in the context of ASEAN’s historical background and recent developments.”

Italy Resurgent: Defending National Interests in the Mediterranean” by Capt. (N) Renato Scarfi (ret.)

“As much as Italy is concerned, the vital need of imports from the sea is evident, in particular because of the choice to base the national economy on strong industrialization. Although it is geographically defined as a peninsula, Italy can be likened to an island when it comes to its strong dependence on the availability of maritime lines of communication. The seas and the oceans therefore play a central role for the Italian economy because the scarcity of raw materials forces Italy to trade with foreign countries for supply.”

The Pathway Toward Containment: Fleet Actions for the United States and ASEAN Plus 5” by Captain Gregory W. Snyder, USMC

“The ongoing territorial disputes playing out in the South and East China Seas offer useful case studies for determining what nations in the western Pacific can do differently to counter malign Chinese actions. Additionally, the United States has a variety of options to employ all of its sea services to help support its allies and partners in the region.”

India’s Strategy for the Indian Ocean in Light of COVID-19 and Confrontation with China” by David Scott

“Paradoxically, though COVID-19 has weakened India’s economic ability to fund its naval infrastructure and assets program for the Indian Ocean, it has enabled India to strengthen its links with Indian Ocean micro-states through the humanitarian assistance delivered by the navy. Meanwhile, land confrontation with China at Galwan has encouraged India to deepen its military links with other maritime powers operating in the Indian Ocean. In an unstated but evident balancing fashion, this is enabling India to improve its maritime position in the Indian Ocean vis-à-vis China.”

Between Scylla and Charybdis: ASEAN and the U.S.-China Contest for the South China Sea” by Mark Valencia

“ASEAN and its members are in an increasingly dangerous dilemma. They are under mounting pressure to choose between the U.S. and China in their competition for political and military preeminence in the region. In response, ASEAN member states are maneuvering to maintain their ‘neutrality’ and pursue ASEAN ‘centrality’ in international affairs affecting the region. Their perspectives and roles in this great power competition merit closer examination, as well as how they are adapting to it, and what—if anything—ASEAN can do.”

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at Content@cimsec.org.

Featured Image: Turkish Navy ships in 2015 (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)

Regional Strategies Week Kicks Off on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

CIMSEC received a tremendous response to our Project Trident’s call for articles on regional strategies, launched in partnership with the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies, the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University, and the Dominican Command and Naval Staff School. Authors from many parts of the world responded with insights and perspectives on nations and navies facing myriad challenges. Across these many countries it becomes apparent how maritime security features many common themes while retaining unique geographic context.

Maritime security is a vital requirement for all nations’ prosperity. But the vastness of the maritime domain and the plentiful resources and platforms that reside within it always pose a challenge to maritime forces. Small and medium-sized navies have developed networks of cooperation to share the burden, and have employed innovative methods of securing their maritime locales. Whether they find themselves facing non-state threats, new oceanic infrastructure, or caught within competition between greater powers, innovation is at a premium for regional powers. 

CIMSEC will be extending the topic week into a second week to showcase the high volume of quality submissions received. Below is the lineup of articles featuring during the topic week, and which will be updated as additional publications are finalized.

China’s Aircraft Carriers and Southeast Asia: Testing Coercive Naval Diplomacy?” by Shang-su Wu
Illegal Fishing in the South Pacific: What Can the Chilean Navy Do?” by Francisco Martinez
Boats, Budget, and Boots: The Colombian Navy’s Challenges in International Cooperation” by Rafael Uribe Neira
The Sino-Japanese Maritime Disputes in the East China Sea” by Yoichiro Sato
The Israeli Navy in a Changing Security Environment” by Ehud (Udi) Eiran
A South Pacific Island-Led Approach to Regional Maritime Security” by Michael van Ginkel
Sweden and the Blue Society: New Challenges for a Small Navy” by Lars Wedin
Turkey’s ‘Mavi Vatan’ Strategy and Rising Insecurity in the Eastern Mediterranean” by Capt. Andrew Norris, J.D., USCG (ret.) and Alexander Norris
Between the Giants: The Future of the Taiwanese Navy in an Era of Great Power Competition” by Jonathan Selling
Vietnam’s Struggles in the South China Sea: Challenges and Opportunities” by Viet Hung Nguyen Cao
Southeast Asia: A New Strategic Nexus for Japan’s Maritime Strategy” by John Bradford
Unraveling China with Soft Balancing: Malaysia, ASEAN, and the South China Sea” by Afdal Izal
Italy Resurgent: Defending National Interests in the Mediterranean” by Capt. (N) Renato Scarfi (ret.)
The Pathway Toward Containment: Fleet Actions for the United States and ASEAN Plus 5” by Captain Gregory W. Snyder, USMC
Between Scylla and Charybdis: ASEAN and the U.S.-China Contest for the South China Sea” by Mark Valencia

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at Content@cimsec.org.

Featured Image: SOUTH CHINA SEA (June 17, 2020) – The Republic of Singapore Navy Formidable-class frigate RSS Supreme (73) flies the “Romeo” flag, internationally recognized as a signal for preparing to replenish at sea, while approaching the U.S. Navy Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo and ammunition ship USNS Carl Brashear (T-AKE 7) as the ships prepare to conduct a replenishment-at-sea. (U.S. Navy photo by Ordinary Seaman DJ Hinahon)

Ocean Governance Week Concludes on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

From July 20 to August 3, 2020, CIMSEC featured a wide array of publications on the future of ocean governance, submitted in response to our call for articles issued in partnership with the Stable Seas program of One Earth Future. This turned out to be one of the most viewed CIMSEC topic weeks, and which featured insights from a wide range of authors.

Ocean governance is in a state of flux. Legal regimes are being revised, and maritime powers are employing hybrid tactics that seek to exploit the seams of legal frameworks and norms that constitute ocean governance. Non-state actors such as pirates, smugglers, and others are constantly innovating to further nefarious activity. The rules and standards that underpin good order on the high seas must keep pace with those who are keen to exploit them.

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing is emerging as a significant issue. These natural resources require careful tending if they are to be sustainable, but aggressive fishing fleets, especially China’s, are depleting a resource that has long provided for millions. If revised regimes and norms cannot restore the world’s fisheries, they may become a major driver of competition and conflict in regions already suffering from tension. As the Cod Wars between allied Iceland and the United Kingdom revealed, fisheries can be, in the eyes of some, worthy of threatening broader conflict.

Ocean governance is explicitly tied toward the ability to effectively monitor and respond to crimes. But the vast expanse of the world’s oceans allows many criminals and nefarious actors to operate openly and in plain sight, unless someone has the means to both watch and react. Ocean governance is inseparable from maritime domain awareness, and developing greater awareness is often the first step toward establishing responses and distributing resources. Those who are tasked with enforcing good order on the seas will almost always suffer a dearth of monitoring and response capability, but ingenuity in the application of both will reap rewards.

Ocean governance is more than just combatting pirates or smugglers, illegal fishers or non-state actors. Ocean governance encompasses efforts that seek to prevent North Korean container ships and their partners in violating sanctions, or in understanding which hybrid warfare methods are more a legal matter than a military one. Ocean governance is center-stage in matters of great power competition, whether it be China’s nine-dash line in the South China Sea, or Russia’s maritime activities around the Crimean peninsula.

What is clear is that ocean governance deserves greater attention from policymakers, and the foresight to recognize that if many issues are not settled through enhanced ocean governance today, then later they may become far more expansive problems in the future.

Below are the articles that featured during the extended topic week, with excerpts. We thank these authors for their excellent contributions.

Unauthorized Flags: A Threat to the Global Maritime Regime,” by Cameron Trainer and Paulina Izewicz

Fraudulent and false flagging is a complex issue requiring action from multilateral organizations like the IMO, national authorities, and the private sector. Each of these actors has a different set of incentives. Much is at stake for the private sector…The temptation to pass responsibility for combatting unauthorized flag use to others is immense. But it is only through steps taken collectively by all relevant stakeholders that this problem can be addressed.

Stand Up A Joint Interagency Task Force To Fight Illegal Fishing,” by Claude Berube

Between NGOs, elements of U.S. government agencies, and Congressional legislation, there are positive moves toward addressing IUU fishing. Given the rapid depletion rates of fish stock, China’s growing global presence, and the impact of IUU fishing on economies, more action must be taken. Part of that action requires a reassessment of real innovative and adaptive measures that NGOs have used in partnership with host nations to counter what may be the greatest challenge in the twenty-first century.

Reflecting the Law of the Sea: In Defense of the Bay of Bengal’s Grey Area,” by Cornell Overfield

The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), more than any other implement of international law, has underpinned the orderly delimitation and governance of the world’s oceans. Despite its status as an unparalleled accomplishment of diplomacy and international law, the treaty is not exhaustive or without ambiguities. One outstanding issue in delimitation arbitration is the relationship between the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf – specifically whether one state’s EEZ rights can overlap with another state’s continental shelf rights. What deserves greater attention is how recent court maritime boundary delimitations derided by some observers as legislation from the bench in fact follow the black letter of the law more closely than state practice or previous court decisions.

Make Maritime Stability Operations a Core U.S. Coast Guard Mission Focus,” by Dan Owen

Fortunately for the U.S. and the larger international development community, a basic framework or mechanism to address maritime instability already exists, called Maritime Stability Operations (MSO). Additionally, one U.S. government agency in particular is especially qualified and well-suited for this mission, the U.S. Coast Guard.

Stop Seabed Mining Now,” by Drake Long

Seabed governance is going to be one of the thornier issues for a humankind more dependent on the oceans and coasts in the future, and the foundation needs to be laid now for an approach that does not imperil the seabed’s ecosystem for a very dubious profit. National governments may be too indecisive to come to consensus, and international organizations like the ISA are ill-equipped to enforce anything even if they do have a change of heart or code. The process of better seabed governance begins with increased scrutiny, and will largely depend upon an alliance of marine environmentalist non-governmental organizations and the scientific research community.

Regional Maritime Security Governance and the Challenges of State Cooperation on Piracy,” by Dr. Anja Menzel

Threats to maritime security cannot be understood in isolation, as they are deeply interrelated. Going forward, maritime security governance will therefore need a more integrated understanding of the hazards posed by maritime crimes as well as the potential of coordinated efforts to combat these crimes. Specifically, it is necessary to strengthen maritime domain awareness by emphasizing potential synergies between combatting maritime crimes with the blue economy and the safety of the marine environment. 

Fight Illegal Fishing for Great Power Advantage,” by Matthew Ader

IUU fishing is an ongoing humanitarian, economic, and environmental disaster. Working to stop it will be relatively affordable and advantageous for the U.S. if it leverages regional partnerships and interagency assets. More work should be done to explore the possibilities it offers as a matter of urgency.

The Cod Wars and Today: Lessons from an Almost War,” by Walker Mills

Not once, but three times in the 20th Century, cod was almost the causus belli between Iceland and the United Kingdom in a string of events referred to collectively as the “Cod Wars.”1 The Cod Wars, taken together, make clear that issues of maritime governance and access to maritime resources can spark inter-state conflict even among allied nations. Fishing rights can be core issues that maritime states will vigorously defend.

Arctic Governance: Keeping the Arctic Council on Target,” by Ian Birdwell

This June has been unsettling for the Arctic. Russia experienced three events the Arctic Council has been dreading for years: an oil spill, an outbreak of wildfires, and the hottest Arctic temperature record being set with a 100-degree Fahrenheit day in Siberia. However, Russia is not alone in addressing these events. The Arctic Council, the Arctic’s premier multilateral organization, has sought to prepare the region and the globe for the eventuality of a warmer Arctic.

Maritime Crime During the Pandemic: Unmasking Trends in The Caribbean,” by Dr. Ian Ralby, Lt. Col. Michael Jones, and Capt. (N) Errington Shurland (ret.)

To keep pace with and ultimately get ahead of the criminals, CARICOM member states will need to explore a range of tools for addressing the full spectrum of illicit maritime activities. This includes using new technology such as maritime domain awareness platforms, enhancing operational cooperation through CARICOM IMPACS and the RSS, and both adopting and implementing legal instruments such as the Treaty of San José. While the pandemic has curtailed and thwarted many good things around the world, it somewhat ironically has helped catalyze this process in the Caribbean.

Ocean Governance and Maritime Security in The Gulf of Guinea,” by Bem Ibrahim Garba

Much can be achieved through the collective efforts of these coastal communities when they come together as progressive stakeholders for the governance of the Gulf of Guinea. Effective ocean governance within the Gulf of Guinea will require their collective identification of common goals and the implementation of collectively agreed upon effective strategies for managing the region. These must all be built on enduring institutional structures.

Using Geospatial Data to Improve Maritime Domain Awareness in the Sulu and Celebes Seas,” by Michael van Ginkel

Sprawling archipelagos and limited government resources make comprehensive maritime domain awareness (MDA) challenging in the Sulu and Celebes Seas. To improve their information gathering capabilities, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines have invested in advanced geospatial data acquisition technologies like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and satellites. 

In the Deep End: How Seafarers Are Redirecting Security Consciousness,” by Jessica K. Simonds

Seafarers engage in various security practices while transiting the Straits of Hormuz, Bab Al-Mandeb, the Gulf of Aden, and the broader Indian Ocean. How have these practices developed to identify and communicate emerging maritime threats based on how seafarer feedback has been incorporated within strategies that counter piracy?

Implications of Hybrid Warfare for the Order of the Oceans,” by Alexander Lott

Since Frank Hoffman coined the term “hybrid warfare” in 2007, numerous articles and books have been written on this theme from the perspective of military studies and international relations. Yet the existing legal literature has not so far focused on the challenges that hybrid warfare poses for the order of the oceans. One of the main current research gaps lies in the lack of clear understanding on how the law of the sea operates in hybrid warfare.

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at Content@cimsec.org.

Featured Image: An overhead view of a container ship (Getty)