A System of Systems Analysis is Needed for Maritime Strike

By Dick Mosier

The US military is expanding its inventory of long-range maritime strike missiles such as the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), Maritime Strike Tomahawk (MST), Standard Missile 6 (SM-6), Long-Range Anti-ship Missile (LRASM), and Naval Strike Missile (NSM). These capable weapons all have ranges well beyond the effective range of the sensor systems organic to their launch platforms – meaning their effective employment relies on third party targeting data. 

While these missiles all have terminal seekers for target acquisition and aim point selection, they require target location and identification information from deep-reach external sensor systems for mission planning, missile launch decisions, target location updates to in-flight missiles, and battle damage assessments (BDA).

The threat of long-range (400 km/160 nm), hypersonic, air-to-air missiles such as the PLAAF’s new PL-21 indicate that US conventional reconnaissance and targeting aircraft must now operate within protected airspace limiting their ability to target enemy ships out to the maximum ranges of US anti-ship missiles. As a result, targeting for US long-range anti-ship missiles is increasingly dependent on NRO and Space Force satellite reconnaissance and targeting systems.

A fundamental problem facing the US military is that the services have fielded capable, long-range missile systems, but only possesses limited deep-reach Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Targeting (ISRT) capabilities, limiting the effective employment of long-range missile systems. The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and Air Force/Space Force are developing satellite ISRT constellations to address the problem, but the services need to use a ‘Maritime Strike System of Systems’ approach to address the true functionality of US maritime strike capability.

A System of Systems Approach

The Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition & Technology) Systems Engineering Guide for Systems of Systems defines a System of Systems (SOS) as: “a set or arrangement of systems that results when independent and useful systems are integrated into a larger system that delivers unique capabilities.” The “Maritime Strike SOS” is the set of systems and human processes integrated into a larger system of systems that provide engagement quality tracks on moving enemy ships within stringent time latency requirements for the successful engagement by the various long-range, anti-ship missiles fielded by the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and the Army.

A Maritime Strike SOS analysis would address the functionality of not only NRO and Air Force/Space Force space systems; but also, the other essential components and processes of the end-to-end architecture, such as requirements submission and adjudication, satellite/constellation tasking, satellite data relay, ground processing and exploitation, and information/data dissemination to tactical forces. The SOS analysis would ensure that the end-to-end architecture and its timeliness will provide the targeting required for effective anti-ship missile engagements.

Without guaranteed performance across this entire architecture—particularly its timeliness—these substantial space investments will fail to enable anti-ship missile engagements.

Maritime Strike SOS Analysis

Missile Range Velocity Service
Naval Strike Missile

 (NSM)

115 nm 450 kts Navy, USMC
Maritime Strike Tomahawk (MST) 1000 nm 450 kts Navy, USMC, Army  
Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) 200 nm 450 kts Navy, USAF
Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) 350 nm 3334 kts Army
Standard Missile 6

(SM-6)

130 nm 2334 kts Navy, USMC, Army

The first step in a Maritime Strike SOS analysis is to determine the capability required of the SOS for each type of anti-ship missile and launch platform combination. The objective is to determine the sequence and timing of events from receipt of a mission task by a launch platform to the acquisition of the moving target ship by the missile seeker.

In the final analysis, the missile must arrive at the target ship location area of uncertainty and begin its search before the moving ship has time to exit the area of uncertainty. This analysis will determine the maximum usable time latency from satellite target sensing to entry of the target information into the missile by the launch platform.

The SOS performance requirements are derived from the performance attributes of these five existing missile systems fielded by the Services for use in the context of joint force operations.

Maritime Strike SOS Baseline

Once the SOS performance requirements are defined for each type of missile, the next step is to identify and evaluate the baseline and alternatives. The targeting timeline for the SOS analysis would begin with receipt of a Maritime Strike mission order, and include the following:

  • Processes for the submission of collection requirements
  • Adjudication of collection tasking priorities
  • Planning of satellite mission or constellation coverage
  • Tasking of satellites
  • Time for satellites to access the target area
  • Collection of data by the satellites
  • Dissemination of sensor data to ground/shipboard systems for data processing and image exploitation
  • Dissemination of target information to missile launch platforms

The combination of all these factors has to occur within the maximum allowable time latency for successful missile engagement. 

The SOS Satellite Baseline

Satellite communications, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and weapons targeting systems are well into the transition from a small number of operational systems to proliferated architectures that take advantage of lower launch costs, and cheaper satellites to form mega constellations of hundreds of satellites. The following satellite mega constellations designed for or capable of supporting anti-ship missile targeting should be included in the baseline SOS analysis.

NRO Proliferated Architecture

On 22 May 2024, the NRO launched the first set of 21 Star Shield imaging satellites into low earth orbit (LEO) in what the NRO calls the NRO Proliferated Architecture. As of 30 April 2025, 179 Star Shield satellites have been launched. According to the NRO, six more launches are scheduled in 2025. Assuming the previous pattern of 21 satellites per launch the constellation is projected to reach approximately 300 three hundred satellites in late 2025. The NRO also indicates that launches will continue through 2029 but has not disclosed specifics on schedule or the total number of launches. The SOS analysis would address the performance of the satellite sensors and the processes and timelines involved from submission of fleet requirements to delivery of the sensed information to the fleet.

Space Force Long-Range Kill Chains Program

In August 2024, the Space Force Long-Range Kill Chains Program was approved for Milestone B indicating that this satellite-based Moving Target Indicator (MTI) constellation designed to track ships and land targets can proceed to acquisition. Program cost, constellation size, and the technical details of the overall architecture and performance are classified. The schedule and performance parameters are established, and the program is funded for an Initial Operational Capability (IOC) in the early 2030s. The size of this mega-constellation, arrangement of the satellites in space, and the technical details of the overall architecture and performance remain classified.

Space Defense Agency Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA)

The Space Force/Space Development Agency (SDA) is fielding the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) that includes Link 16 and Integrated Broadcast Service (IBS) for the dissemination of information to tactical forces. In August 2024, SDA demonstrated the capability to make a PWSA Link 16 connection with a carrier and an aircraft on its deck.

In late summer 2025, the SDA is expected to begin launching its first set of PWSA satellites with limited operational capabilities. This will include 126 Transport Layer data relay satellites, and 28 Tracking Layer satellites, and 4 demonstration satellites for missile tracking. The SOS should determine the role of the PWSA in the overall SOS architecture for targeting anti-ship missiles.

Maritime Strike Command and Control Baseline

Maritime Strike is a mission that now involves platforms and missiles from the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and USAF. The Maritime Strike SOS analysis must address the command and control relationships and processes among the components to ensure the arrangements are in place for the sharing of target information; and, for the planning, and execution of coordinated multiple component maritime strike operations.

The Services are fielding systems for the receipt and exploitation of targeting information. The Army is fielding Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node (TITAN) variants for Division and above, and a basic variant for division and below. The Navy and Marine Corps are developing and fielding Navy Maritime Targeting Cells (MTC) ashore and afloat; and, the Marine Corps is fielding a Family of Integrated Targeting Cells (MTC-X, MTC-Mobile, and Tactical Edge Node TEN-X). The details of Navy and Marine Corps MTC systems are classified, but they are expected to have capabilities similar to those of TITAN, e.g., direct satellite tasking, satellite sensor control, direct downlink of satellite data, data processing and analysis for the purpose of weapons targeting. The Maritime Strike SOS analysis would assure that these tactical terminal systems are fully integrated with the overall maritime strike SOS architecture.

Conclusion

The SOS analysis could consist of a relatively modest approach based on the integration of the detailed architectures of each of the components of the SOS as should be available from the NRO, NGA, Space Force, and the Services/Joint Force components. The investment in this analysis is justified given the looming conflict with China over Taiwan, one dominated by anti-ship missile operations. The SOS analysis would ensure that the anti-ship missiles operated by Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps will have the timely and comprehensive targeting support required for their effective use against moving ships.

Dick Mosier served as a Naval Flight Officer (VQ and VP); OPNAV N2 civilian intelligence analyst; OSD (Intelligence and Space Policy); SES 4 ASD(C3I) Director Tactical Intelligence Systems; and Deputy Director of a support activity leading OSD studies on space and unmanned airborne ISRT system alternatives. His career-long interest in improving the effectiveness of US Navy tactical operations, with a particular focus on the challenges of assuring the integration of national-tactical ISRT combat support capabilities. The article represents the author’s personal views and do not necessarily reflect the official views of any U.S. government department or agency.

Featured Image: RED SEA (Sept. 19, 2021) Fire Controlman (Aegis) 2nd Class Garrett Town stands watch in the combat information center aboard guided-missile destroyer USS O’Kane (DDG 77) in the Red Sea. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Elisha Smith)


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