Integrated Campaigning Topic Week
By Mohammad Rubaiyat Rahman
Introduction
Integrated naval campaigning refers to a series of operations aiming to achieve strategic and operational objectives through military, diplomatic, and non-military activities.1 Such a naval campaign encompasses multiple domains and the integrated approach features joint and interagency partners of the U.S. government.2 As emphasized in the U.S. National Defense Strategy of 2022, there is a requirement for an integrated approach to gain military advantage, enhance deterrence, and address gray zone challenge.
The demand for U.S Navy engagement in the Indo-Pacific region is stronger than at any time in the preceding three decades.3 Such urgency is well-understood upon the assumption that that the naval dominance of the U.S. Navy paves the ability of the U.S. to project joint power globally. As integrated naval campaigning in the Indo-Pacific region gains traction, the U.S. Navy’s role in deterrence by denial encourages it to focus on countering gray zone operations. Therefore to achieve national objectives, the U.S. Navy requires new fleet-wide operational and campaigning concepts to compete with the gray zone activity of competitors.
The geostrategic situation in the Bay of Bengal reflects the need for a concept of integrated naval campaigning in support of a rules-based Indo-Pacific. The significance of this maritime zone is looming larger in the strategic calculus of the Indo-Pacific region and has become a central arena for gray zone competition, especially between Indian and Chinese maritime forces.4 The gray zone competition entrenched in the Bay of Bengal has long preceded the recent calls for integrated campaigning from U.S. forces.
The Bay of Bengal is a key maritime zone of interest and influence for the U.S. Navy to promote regional security and rules-based order through campaigning. The Bay is a key geographic crossroads between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean through which extensive maritime traffic transits, making the competition over rules-based order especially salient. The gray zone activities in the Bay of Bengal demand specific attention from the U.S. Navy, and will demand operational innovation and partnership-building specifically tailored to the complexities of the local gray zone competition. These efforts will serve the U.S Navy well in informing its broader campaigning throughout the Indo-Pacific region.
China’s Gray Zone Campaign in the Bay of Bengal: Appraising the Situation
The term ‘gray zone’ first started to appear in the policy documents of Japan and the United States.5 Gray zone situations can refer to almost anything below the threshold of high-intensity military conflict, or a large variety of non-military means of competition. It is fundamental to any gray zone situation that the adversary country deliberately extends its gray zone efforts to achieve enough coercive power to undermine the target state’s sovereign control. In the case of targeting littoral states, this can include impeding rightful economic exploitation, hampering the use of maritime zones for safe passage, and other unfair manipulations of norms in the maritime domain.6 In other words, the adversary country utilizes gray zone activities to assert their maritime interests at the expense of other states and the broader norms of the maritime system.7 In comparison to high-end military operations, any gray zone situation naturally belongs to the low-end spectrum of warfare.8 Gray zone campaigns can also seek to inflict long-term political and military costs, facilitate a favorable reinterpretation of the situation with respect to public opinion, and a gradual change of circumstances and behavior in favor of the adversary country’s policy preferences.9
The significance of the Bay of Bengal is looming larger in the maritime calculus of the Indo-Pacific region.10 The geostrategic importance of the Bay of Bengal11 as a critical maritime crossroads between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean has serious implications12 for China’s multi-pronged ambitions towards shaping global governance.13 Mainly from the 1980s, China has been deepening relationships with the Bay’s littoral states and pulling those countries into economic and military partnerships.14
China’s ceaseless endeavor to penetrate into the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka has been a maritime security challenge to rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. Over recent decades, these littoral states have depended on China for economic, military, and infrastructure development. China has constructed ports, roads, pipelines, and railway tracts in these littoral states. Developing maritime infrastructure and facilitating economic dependencies in littoral states function as critical enablers for China’s gray zone campaign in the Bay of Bengal.
China’s economic relations with these littoral states have raised two concerns, namely the potential use of infrastructure for enhancing China’s military access in the region, and China earning significant political leverage over the decision-making of those countries, to the detriment of democracy and the rule of law. In recent years, such hegemonic influence has acquired a more virulent form. For example, when ASEAN announced its outlook policy on the Indo-Pacific, some littoral states in the Bay of Bengal opted for a cautionary reaction, likely reflecting how China would prefer they receive the policy declaration. The littoral states of this region are also reluctant to clarify their observations towards integrated deterrence in the Bay of Bengal.15 For example, in Bangladesh’s outlook on the Indo-Pacific strategy, there lacks any integrated deterrence measures and maritime security objectives in the Bay of Bengal.16
For many littoral states of the Bay of Bengal, China is the major supplier of military hardware.17 A key example is Bangladesh’s recent operationalization of the country’s only submarine base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, constructed with Chinese financial and technical assistance. Bangladesh also acquired China’s modern VT5 light tank. Thailand has signed deals with China to acquire surface warships and submarines for its navies.18 Myanmar’s airstrip extensions and construction of aviation hangers on the Great Coco Island suggests Chinese involvement and potential uses for maritime surveillance.19 Furthermore, China’s involvement in developing infrastructure in these countries points to a strategy of facilitating a long-term presence in the Bay of Bengal, as well as laying steppingstones for blue water activities in the broader Indian Ocean.20
Chinese Survey Vessels in the Gray Zone Campaign: Pruning Hooks into Spears
There are three broad categories of Chinese gray zone operations in the Bay of Bengal. These include its development of maritime infrastructure, oceanographic survey vessel activity, and undersea operations. In particular, the frequent activity of Chinese oceanographic survey vessels over the past few years are a key indicator that China is seeking a better understanding of the undersea environment in the Bay of Bengal. These activities pave the way for submarine operations, which encourage a comprehensive understanding of water currents, seabed topography, and seasonal variation of the maritime environment.21,22 This data on undersea conditions is also useful for understanding how submarine stealth will fare in the area.23 With respect to gray zone campaigns, submarine and subsurface assets provide multiple advantages, including creeping coercion and operational uncertainty for targeted states.24
Several Chinese oceanographic vessels have been at the forefront of this effort. The Shi Yan 1 was used in the Indian exclusive economic zone adjacent to the Andaman Nicobar Islands.25 The Xiang Yang Hong 06 conducted joint scientific surveys in the territorial sea of Myanmar in February 2020.26 This same oceanographic survey vessel, prior to the Myanmar visit, conducted research on the seabed of Sri Lanka’s territorial sea.27 In select offshore zones of Bangladesh, Chinese survey ships conducted 2D seismic survey projects.28
In pursuing gray zone activities in the Bay of Bengal, these Chinese survey vessels repeat common operational patterns. First, these maritime research vessels, some of which have ballistic missile and satellite tracking capability, seek clearance for replenishment purposes, to be conducted at littoral state infrastructure.29 These survey vessels also often switch off their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders, which makes it difficult to track their locations and activities.30 After coming under international pressure Sri Lanka sought to delay a port visit by China’s Yuan Wang 5 ballistic missile and satellite tracking ship, but China applied pressure and was able to get the decision reversed. Sri Lanka allowed the ship to dock with certain stipulations, including having the ship keep its AIS transponder on.31, 32, 33
It is worth drawing particular attention to the Indian Navy’s efforts at maritime domain awareness in the Bay of Bengal, since it is complementary to the U.S. Navy’s goals and the integrated campaign approach required for U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. The Indian Navy’s Information Fusion Center for the Indian Ocean Region exchanges information and facilitates communication with select partners.34 The littoral states of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar are among the partners in this security collaboration structure.35 The Indian Navy’s deployment of coastal surveillance radar systems in Bangladesh,36 Sri Lanka, and Myanmar highlights not only its proactive efforts37 in addressing gray zone situations,38 but also its concern about the growing competitiveness of Chinese gray zone operations. A salient feature of the surveillance system is that the system can quickly detect, locate, and monitor movements of dhows and vessels in any given surveilled area.39
Because of these surveillance assets in particular, the Indian Navy would be a useful partner for the U.S. Navy in a Bay of Bengal integrated naval campaign to counter China’s gray zone activity.40 To compete with China’s gray zone operations, it is vital for the U.S. Navy to form regional partnership with the navies and coast guards of littoral states and improve their capabilities.41 But the U.S. Navy mostly focuses its operations in the vicinity of East Asian littoral states, leaving much to be desired in the waters west of Malacca.42
China’s Undersea Strategy in the Bay of Bengal
The frequent operations of Chinese submarines and oceanographic survey vessels in the Bay of Bengal, the increased detection and protests by the Indian Navy, and Sri Lanka’s replenishment of Chinese vessels highlight a complex gray zone situation in the Bay of Bengal. The situation may be even more complex than previously thought due to the hidden nature of Chinese submarine operations in the area.
Prior to 2010, there was little evidence of Chinese submarine operations in the Bay of Bengal. However, the situation appeared to change in 2014 when a Type 039 Song-class diesel-electric attack submarine berthed at the Sri Lankan port of Colombo twice: from September 7-14 and from October 31- November 6.43 The Song class is much quieter than its predecessors due to its seven-bladed propeller, and the combat and command systems of the submarine are upgraded versions of the systems aboard the Type 035 Ming-class submarine.44
Considering the similarity between Type 039 and Type 035 classes, it is noteworthy that China sold two Type 035 G Ming-class submarines to Bangladesh45 in 2016, and a B-variant Ming-class submarine to Myanmar46 in 2021. China’s submarine deals with Bangladesh and Myanmar have paved the way for Chinese submarine crews to be posted to these nations for training purposes.47 These deals allow the Chinese Navy to gradually increase the presence of its personnel and Chinese-sourced hardware in the Bay of Bengal’s littoral states, which increase the competitiveness of its gray zone strategy.
These developments should be a source of concern for the U.S. Navy’s integrated naval campaign against gray zone operations. China’s undersea operations challenge the maritime domain awareness architecture covering the Bay of Bengal, and the littoral states have relatively little in the way of anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Chinese submarine presence is therefore acutely felt in this region, even if it cannot be precisely perceived. The U.S. Navy could provide vital expertise in enhancing awareness of the undersea domain and conducting anti-submarine warfare operations.
How the U.S. Navy can Lead an Integrated Campaign against Gray Zone Challenges
The present-day top leadership of the U.S. Navy views this decade as a decisive one and requires that the Navy improve itself as a self-assessing, self-correcting, and always learning organization to deliver warfighting advantage.48 The leadership of the U.S. Navy understands the importance of changing skillsets and culture in relation to the competition.49 The U.S Navy, in many of its warfighting skillsets and operations, focuses on competing in the low-end spectrum of operations.50 This reflects an appropriate calculation of risk when it comes to allocating focus toward more likely challenges to be encountered in the operating environment, when the competition is staying below the threshold of war.51,52
The U.S. Navy needs to focus on effective gray zone counters that emphasize prompt and precise responses. However, the challenges to gray zone competitiveness are multifaceted and include the cost of providing physical naval presence, as well as managing the competition over regional narratives that frequently accompany gray zone campaigns. Therefore the U.S Navy cannot confront gray zone operations alone. It must integrate with the partner navies of the littoral states of the Indo-Pacific region.53 These partner navies must also take the initiative themselves to understand the U.S. Navy’s perspectives and capacities to influence the gray zone competition in the Bay of Bengal, and develop options for working together through an integrated campaign.
In the post-Cold War decades, the U.S. Navy partnered with the littoral states of the Bay of Bengal for the purposes of promoting shared interests and engaging in naval capacity building, including through bilateral and multilateral exercises. Through the Joint Combined Exercise Training (JCET), the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) and the Malabar Exercise, the U.S. Navy has helped regional navies support maritime security and maritime domain awareness in the Bay of Bengal. Given this history of cooperation, the U.S. Navy is poised to take the lead on formulating an integrated naval campaign for the Bay of Bengal. The substance of these exercises and their focus areas can be adjusted to better fit the gray zone challenges these partner nations are facing from China.
The Joint Combined Exercise Training (JCET) event is a four-week long exercise where U.S. Naval Special Warfare and the U.S. Special Forces units train regional littoral navies to enhance their combat readiness and maritime crisis response tactics.54 The CARAT event is a military-to-military bilateral exercise designed to highlight the ability of both the U.S. Navy and the regional littoral navy (e.g., Bangladesh) to reiterate shared concepts on maritime security, stability, and prosperity. The collaborative initiative of CARAT is conducted at two phases: ashore and at sea.55 The sea phase of the CARAT includes at least three exercises suitable to gray zone situations.56 First, the cooperative ability to track and pursue targets together through the coordinated deployment of surface ships and maritime patrol aircraft (i.e., navigation and tactical maneuvers). Second, bridge simulations designed to practice navigation maneuvering within proximity to other vessels.57 Third, screening proficiency exercises to defend ships from potential threats.
The Malabar exercise is an Indo-Pacific military interoperability exercise which encompasses two phases.58 The first phase includes air defense, anti-submarine warfare, and replenishment-at-sea between ships, whereas the second phase of Malabar involves mobile anti-submarine training target exercise, cross-deck helicopter operations, and surface gunnery exercises.59 Each of these skillsets are relevant to gray zone operations, particularly kinetic exchanges at the low-end spectrum of warfare, and monitoring undersea activity. In 2021, the U.S. Navy hosted the second phase of Malabar in the Bay of Bengal. It is also relevant to mention that the Malabar exercise was first conducted in 1992 as a bilateral exercise between the U.S. Navy and the Indian Navy, with more than 27 iterations since then.60 As the exercise series continues, it can consistently update its content to ensure it enhances capabilities that are most relevant to the nature of the regional competition.
Conclusion
The presence of the U.S. Navy is waning in comparison to a Chinese navy, coast guard, and maritime militia that is rapidly growing and becoming more aggressive.61 Therefore an effective integrated naval campaign is not something that can be implemented solely by the U.S. Navy or a partner fleet. Rather, integrated campaigning demands the active participation of all Indo-Pacific stakeholders that are interested in enhancing rules-based order in the maritime domain.
The strategic visions of the U.S Navy envision greater cooperation with international partner navies.62 The U.S. Navy should identify how to increase collaboration to bolster deterrence and effectively compete below the threshold of war. It is imperative to formulate a shared framework for early diagnosis and prompt reaction to any prospective gray zone activities.63 Operational cooperation between the U.S Navy and the regional navies of the Bay of Bengal can be a regular matter of discussion to sort out shared maritime security challenges, and develop an integrated campaign that can competitively advance rules-based order.64
Mohammad Rubaiyat Rahman is a Teaching Assistant at the University of Texas at El Paso. He is a subject matter expert in maritime security, irregular migration, counterinsurgency (COIN), and border disputes with a concentration in the Indo-Pacific region. He contributed as a reviewer at the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, a professional journal of the U.S. Department of Air Force, and Coastal Management (Taylor & Francis, 2022). He has published in the Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, Journal of Territorial & Maritime Studies, and the Diplomat. He has presented papers at the Asian Society of International Law, National University of Singapore, Jawaharlal Nehru University, and Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology.
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[2] Ibid.
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[8] Ibid, p. 55.
[9] Ibid.
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[48] Admiral Lisa Franchetti, ‘Message to the fleet’, August 23, 2023, url: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23917551/nav23188.pdf (accessed on October 25, 2023).
[49] Ibid.
[50] Dmitry Filipoff, ‘A fleet adrift: The mounting risking of the U.S. Navy’s Force Development’. CIMSEC, February 13, 2023. URL: https://cimsec.org/a-fleet-adrift-the-mounting-risks-of-the-u-s-navys-force-development/ (accessed on October 22, 2023).
[51] Dmitry Filipoff, ‘Organizing for training and experimentation’ in Learning to Win: Using operational innovation to regain the advantage at sea against China (Washington: Hudson Institute, 2022), p. 21.
[52] Ibid, p. 32.
[53] Lt Commanders Andrew Kramer and Martin Schroeder, U.S. Navy. 2020. “The Navy Needs a Gray-Zone Strategy”. The U.S. Naval Institute, Vol. 146/6/1, 408; available at url: https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/june/navy-needs-gray-zone-strategy (accessed on 25 October 2023).
[54] U.S. Embassy in Bangladesh. ‘U.S. Navy Concludes training with Bangladesh Navy’. News & Events. November 10, 2022. URL: https://bd.usembassy.gov/28790/ (Accessed on: November 5, 2023).
[55] U.S. Embassy in Bangladesh. ‘U.S.-Bangladesh Navy Commence CARAT Exercise’. News & Event. November 5, 2018. URL: https://bd.usembassy.gov/u-s-bangladesh-navy-commence-24th-carat-exercise/ (Accessed on November 6, 2023).
[56] Ibid.
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[60] Jennifer Parker. ‘Not just another naval exercise: Malabar’s vital messaging’ The Strategist. August 10, 2023. URL: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/not-just-another-naval-exercise-malabars-vital-messaging/ (Accessed on November 2, 2023).
[61] Blake Herzinger. ‘The Navy should take more academics to sea’. American Enterprise Institute. January 6, 2023. URL: https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-navy-should-take-more-academics-to-sea/ (accessed on October 25, 2023).
[62] Kevin Delamer, ‘Analysis: The U.S. Navy’s High-Low Mix’. USNI News, June 10, 2013. URL: https://news.usni.org/2013/06/10/analysis-the-u-s-navys-high-low-mix (accessed October 21, 2023).
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Featured Image: A submarine attached to a submarine flotilla with the navy under the PLA Northern Theater Command steams in the sea during a maritime drill on torpedo attack and defense, submarine control, etc. on October 25, 2022. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Shi Jialong)