Trent Hone on Admiral Chester Nimitz and Mastering the Art of Command

By Kyle Cregge

Trent Hone offers a detailed examination of the wartime leadership Admiral Chester Nimitz in his book, Mastering the Art of Command: Admiral Chester W. Nimitz and Victory in the Pacific. By studying Nimitz’s talented leadership through the lens of complex adaptive systems and theories of management, Hone introduces new insight into the underlying causes of successful wartime organizational management and strategy-making.

In this discussion, Hone delves into how Nimitz managed personal relationships, how organizational command structures influenced operations, and how leaders can set the stage for their subordinates to rapidly and meaningfully innovate. 

Can you describe where you see the linkages between your previous book Learning War and Mastering the Art of Command? To what extent is this book a “sequel,” if we focus on Nimitz as a central character? How does exploring Nimitz’s leadership within a complex adaptive system help us today?

I think of it less as a sequel and more as a different, but complementary, lens. Learning War focuses on the Navy as a whole, as a large complex adaptive system, and tries to explain how the Navy learned and improved its fighting doctrine. I think that perspective is quite valuable, but I have been told that it can be unempowering, that the role of individuals can be lost when the organization is centered.

With Mastering the Art of Command, I wanted to address that. I wanted to investigate the role individuals play in a broader system, and I thought a good way to do that would be to select a particularly significant individual—Admiral Nimitz—and examine his actions. How did he use his agency to influence the behavior of the system and, more broadly, what does that tell us about leadership in complex systems? How can leaders encourage the outcomes they desire? Those were some of the questions I was looking to explore.

I believe this perspective is helpful for today because it enhances our understanding of leadership and what makes it effective. Complex systems theory helps us recognize the non-linear nature of so much of what we experience. There was an excellent article in the Naval War College Review that discussed this in the context of human conflict—“War is the Storm” by B.A. Friedman—and there is increasing recognition of the value of that perspective. However, most examinations of leadership still embed an assumption of linear causality. They assume that a sufficiently inspired leader can just take the right action and the desired outcome will follow. This is fundamentally misleading and I believe it holds us back. It is not that straightforward or that easy.

Admiral Chester W. Nimitz at his desk in December 1941, following his appointment as Commander in Chief, Pacific Fleet. (Photo via NHHC Photograph Collection, NH 62027)

I wanted to provide what I think is a more accurate perspective, one that recognizes that leadership is not linear. It is not a simple problem with globally applicable patterns. It requires a deft touch, contextual sensitivity, and an ability to foster connections and relationships that may indirectly lead to desired outcomes. A leader cannot just do X; they have to inspire action toward the desired outcome (Y). Nimitz knew this and I tried to illustrate how his leadership can be better understood through the lens of complex adaptive systems.

In the aftermath of the attack on Pearl Harbor, you credit Nimitz’s aggressiveness in having Halsey conduct the early carrier raids into the Gilbert and Marshall Islands, as well as the Doolittle Raid. You describe the raid as having limited tactical impact but significant strategic impact, partly because it slowed Japanese advances against New Guinea and Ceylon, for fear of further American attacks. While historical research offers answers with the benefit of hindsight, by what process can leaders determine their present opportunities which may appear insignificant, but may in fact greatly affect adversary decision-making?

It might be valuable to start with specifics. In those early months of World War II, signals intelligence and codebreaking provided Nimitz with the information necessary to understand that he was impacting Japanese decision-making. However, the point of your question—and the value of it—is to generalize and I think the general point is that Nimitz was open to new information from a variety of sources. He was trying to create what we might call a “sensor network” that would allow him to gather information that he could use to further Allied strategy. Signals intelligence emerged as an effective means to do that, and so retrospectively, we can look to that as the key. However, at the time Nimitz did not have the luxury of focusing exclusively on one source, so he used multiple ones. Submarine reconnaissance is one that doesn’t receive a great deal of credit, but it was very important to those early raids, especially in the central Pacific.

If I were to generalize further, I think an important lesson is that information gathering mechanisms both highlight and filter. They draw attention to the things they expect and dismiss things they don’t, creating a kind of hidden blindness. Nimitz was fortunate in early 1942 that the Navy’s established mechanisms for information gathering were relatively informal. Structures weren’t overly rigid. That meant he could access a variety of sources and shape his relationship with those sources. The fractured nature of the Navy’s intelligence organization—which often failed to reach consensus—at that time might actually have been beneficial in this respect.

Today’s leaders need to be thinking about potential sources of blindness inherent in their organizations and how they might gather alternative perspectives to overcome them. Organizational structures enable, but they also constrain. Nimitz seemed to have an intuitive understanding of this.

By far my favorite historical anecdote in your book is from early in the war. Nimitz and his recovering Pacific staff are “maintain[ing] a clear sense of the unfolding engagement [in the Battle of Midway] at Pearl Harbor, using a large plot ‘laid over plywood across a pair of sawhorses.'” It is amusing to imagine now given our focus on high-end computing and battle management systems at Maritime Operations Centers or on ships today. As you were doing your research, did you have a favorite anecdote or example of how Nimitz, his team, or his subordinates were getting it done given what they had? 

I love the idea of an analog plot on a physical map over sawhorses. I was disappointed when the most recent Midway movie showed a much more sophisticated plot at CINCPAC headquarters. If the film been more accurate, I think it would have made Woody Harrelson’s portrayal of Nimitz more accessible (and more accurate). And while we’re on the subject, I do think there’s a value to physical plots that digital interfaces don’t provide. I’ve seen it in my work; the physical act of moving things on a shared visualization prompts learning and thinking in a way that digital artifacts do not.

My favorite anecdote about Nimitz and his staff “getting it done” happened in late September 1942 during Nimitz’s flight from Espiritu Santo to Guadalcanal aboard a borrowed B-17. When they arrived over Guadalcanal, the weather was poor and the USAAF pilot could not find Henderson Field. Fortunately, Cdr. Ralph Ofstie, who was an aviator on Nimitz’s staff, remembered that Lt. Arthur H. Lamar, Nimitz’s aide, had brought a National Geographic map of the South Pacific. Ofstie borrowed it and used it to navigate the B-17 to a safe landing. I think that was a remarkable “get it done” moment and it is worth imagining what might have happened if Ofstie hadn’t been able to find the field. Unfortunately, I did not include that story in my book. As much as I like it, I sacrificed it for broader themes about organizational structure and planning. I had a word count to contend with and cut a lot of things that were potentially really interesting, but not aligned with my broader themes.

In the past few years in the U.S. Navy, we have seen some fairly high-profile dismissals for cause due to a lack of trust and confidence of leaders in their roles. You do a great job documenting how even coming into the job, Nimitz had to win and maintain the trust and confidence of his superiors (President Franklin Roosevelt, Secretary of the Navy Frank Knox, and Admiral Ernest King) and restore the faith of his new subordinates (namely, the Pacific Fleet staff). Besides the basics of battlefield success, what do you think Nimitz did that improved trust and confidence up and down his chain of command, that Navy leaders at all levels can employ today? 

I was very impressed with Nimitz’s ability to use one-on-one conversations and personal relationships to promote shared understanding and address difficult topics. Three specific occasions come to mind.

In early February 1942, Nimitz sent Vice Admiral William S. Pye to Washington to meet with Admiral Ernest J. King, the Navy’s new commander in chief. Pye had been the interim commander of the Pacific Fleet after Admiral Husband Kimmel was relieved in the aftermath of Pearl Harbor, and Nimitz kept Pye on as an advisor. February 1942 was a crucial time. The Japanese were advancing rapidly through the Netherlands East Indies and King was pressuring Nimitz to take some aggressive action that would disrupt the Japanese offensive. Nimitz knew he didn’t have the capability to raid in the central Pacific in strength (King urged him to use battleships, for example), but King was very insistent and, in modern terms, was micromanaging the situation.

I am not sure what Nimitz said to Pye before he flew to Washington. I am also not sure what Pye said to King when they met. However, King’s attitude changed after his meeting with Pye. Some of that may have been because of the February 1 raid on Japanese positions in the Marshalls and Gilberts, but I think Pye’s conversation with King was more important for King’s attitude shift. King and Pye had known each other for a long time and worked together before. Nimitz knew that if anyone could clarify the situation at CINCPAC HQ for King, it was Pye. It was a very deliberate choice on Nimitz’s part and the record suggests it had important outcomes.

The second occasion was the first wartime meeting of King and Nimitz in April 1942. Prior to the meeting, King’s impression of Nimitz was not entirely favorable. King thought Nimitz was a personnel specialist who lacked the decisiveness to lead the Pacific Fleet in wartime. This was perhaps not an unreasonable assumption because of the time Nimitz had spent serving in and leading the Bureau of Navigation (which would later become the Bureau of Personnel).

Nimitz showed up to that meeting armed with a plan to ambush a substantial portion of the Imperial Japanese Navy’s First Air Fleet—the aircraft carriers of the Kidō Butai—in the Coral Sea. Codebreaking had given Nimitz insight into Japanese plans to seize Port Moresby by sea, and Nimitz intended to trigger a major battle with all four of his available fleet carriers. King didn’t approve the operation right away, but he eventually did before Nimitz returned to Pearl Harbor. Nimitz’s plan ultimately didn’t work out; two of his carriers failed to arrive in time for what became the Battle of the Coral Sea. However, the two carriers that were there won a strategic victory and, after that first meeting, King was much more willing to trust Nimitz to fight.

The third occasion was immediately before the Battle of Midway. Nimitz had planned to give Vice Admiral William F. Halsey, Jr. command of his carrier forces, but Halsey was ill. Nimitz put Rear Admiral Frank J. Fletcher, who had commanded the carriers at Coral Sea, in charge of the carriers. Now, Nimitz and King were not entirely satisfied with Fletcher’s performance at Coral Sea. King, for example, felt Fletcher should have initiated a night search and attack with his destroyers. So, Nimitz pulled Fletcher aside and had what I imagine must have been a delicate conversation. Nimitz let Fletcher know where his performance appeared to have fallen short. At the same time, Nimitz offered encouragement and expressed his faith in Fletcher’s ability to command the coming battle. Anyone who’s had to have a conversation like that with a subordinate, where you offer critical feedback while also inspiring them to better things, knows it is tricky. Nimitz was good at it.

In each of these instances Nimitz used his interpersonal skills to directly address sources of potential conflict and misunderstanding in one-on-one conversations. He “leaned in” to that kind of friction and used it as a way to increase clarity about what he expected and what he intended to do. This approach increased trust and confidence. I think that commitment to surface potential conflict and address it before it becomes a more serious issue is an excellent lesson to take forward.

Admirals Chester Nimitz and William Halsey aboard USS Curtiss at ‘Button’ Naval Base, Espiritu Santo, New Hebrides, January 20, 1943. (U.S. Navy photo)

Throughout the book, you credit Nimitz for staff adjustments and flexibility to maintain a sensing organization, from fielding the first Joint Intel Operations Center, or making adaptations on ships like directing crews to set up a Combat Information Center. I was especially impressed with how Nimitz provides an end goal without specifics, which creates something like a meritocratic laboratory at sea for lessons learned to bubble up. If you were to distill Nimitz’s sensemaking-to-organization-adjusting process, how can staff or fleet leaders use that today for some of our emerging challenges that include far more services and capabilities than what Nimitz had to organize? As a leader, how do I discern that my organization is not sensing problems effectively anymore and requires change?

There are several aspects to this. First, it is important to have a high-level goal that focuses effort on a desired outcome. Innovation and creativity must be fostered and often the best way to do that is to work across or through existing organizational boundaries. A high-level goal helps with this because if the goal is small or too easily achievable it can easily be broken down and approached within an existing organizational structure. That constrains the solution space and limits potential solutions. Conway’s law, which holds that a solution design mirrors the communication structures of the organization that created it, is an excellent example of this idea.

The Combat Information Center (CIC), and the innovative work that led to it, benefited from cross functional collaboration in pursuit of a high-level goal. The CIC required adjustments to the Navy’s existing shipboard organizational structure. If the problem had been broken down into smaller pieces and solved within that structure, it would not have led to the transformational solution that became the CIC.

Now to the question about how one knows if their organization isn’t sensing problems effectively anymore. I think the best answer to that is not to look for some kind of trigger to see if effective sensing has stopped. Instead, I think it is best to assume that sensing is always slightly off and never fully accurate. Therefore, organizations need an inbuilt capacity to continuously adapt, adjust, and reassess. Otherwise, that capability will not be there when it is really needed. In the book I build off the work of David Woods and use his perspective on adaptive capacity and his theory of “graceful extensibility.” Both rely on having sufficient spare cycles (spare capacity) to reflect on the current state and adjust to new information. I believe that is something that Nimitz and other officers like him actively sought to create, an ability to adapt, adjust, and reconfigure on a regular basis to keep pace with the evolving nature of the war. It is a point I make in the book.

All of this necessitates a comfort with flexibility, in terms of organizational structure, and uncertainty, in terms of one’s role and the part one will play to achieve desired outcomes. I think that comfort with uncertainty and variability is very important. It is something that can be nurtured, and so if there’s one thing that today’s readers take away, I think it ought to be that. How do they foster the necessary comfort with uncertainty so that they and their teams can be ready to adapt to the new and unanticipated? In a Proceedings article I co-authored with Lieutenant Eric Vorm, he and I called this “intellectual readiness.” I think it is a good model for how to think about it.

One lesser-known story for me was the American efforts to dislodge or deny Japanese attacks on the Aleutian Islands in the North Pacific. It seemed like personality clashes on the ground and staff planning affected joint operations nearly as much as the weather did. What differences do you see in the more flexible Southwest and Central Pacific advances that weren’t present in the Northern Pacific, and what do you think Nimitz might offer as advice for working with conflicting personalities and visions for a mission?

I’m glad you found the discussion of the Aleutians valuable. I think it is an important aspect of the war that is sometimes overlooked. The crucial difference between the Aleutians and the South Pacific and Central Pacific was lack of unity of command. Nimitz expected Rear Admiral Robert Theobald to establish a unified command structure—at least a sufficiently well-aligned understanding with his U.S. Army counterparts if not a shared organizational hierarchy—but Theobald did not do that. In this sense, personalities matter, and those personalities need to be able to subordinate their service loyalties and personal pride to the pursuit of strategic objectives. Nimitz’s subordinate area commanders who were able to do this—Admiral Halsey, who collaborated with General MacArthur in the South Pacific, and Admiral Kinkaid, who worked well with the Army in the North Pacific and then with MacArthur in the Southwest Pacific—succeeded. Those who did not were relieved.

Geography played an important role too, of course. There were more options for maneuver in the Southwest Pacific and Central Pacific, more pathways to strategic objectives. The North Pacific was necessarily more linear because of the arrangement of the Aleutians. Even still, Kinkaid was able to leapfrog Kiska and seize Attu. That was a very creative solution to the resource constraints he and his peers in the Army faced and it ultimately made the Japanese position on Kiska untenable, easing its recapture.

I think Nimitz’s advice would be to collaborate and think creatively across service and national lines. He encouraged this regularly. One specific instance stands out. When he visited the South Pacific in September 1942, before Admiral Halsey relieved Admiral Ghormley, he told the attendees of one conference, “If we can’t use our Allies, we’re god damn fools.”

You recount how in the final planning for the mainland invasion of Japan, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) realized they can’t choose Nimitz or MacArthur as overall theater commander, as neither was willing to be subordinate to the other, with the General designated Chief, U.S. Army Forces, Pacific (CINCAFPAC), and the Admiral responsible for “all U.S. Naval resources in the Pacific Theater” except for those in the Southeast Pacific. The first de facto Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Bill Leahy, “felt the implications were ‘somewhat academic,’” but you say there were significant consequences, because it “discarded Nimitz’s integrated approach to joint command…. in favor of MacArthur’s centralized approach… in effect [making] the JCS the [General Headquarters] GHQ for the Pacific theater.” Can you expand on those consequences, and as a civilian academic observer, how do those lessons inform your view of our current Geographic Combatant Command structure, which looks very much like the end-of-war model, albeit with a single individual in theater and in command, rather than the JCS?

I didn’t fully appreciate those late war organizational adjustments until I got into them and analyzed their implications. A little background is important. Both Nimitz and MacArthur employed “unity of command” in that all the forces in their respective theaters were under their command (the one important exception being the USAAF’s strategic air force in the Marianas). However, Nimitz and MacArthur approached that idea differently below their headquarters level.

Nimitz maintained unity of command even at lower levels of his command structure. Halsey, for example, commanded all the forces in the South Pacific Area, and Spruance, when he commanded the Fifth Fleet, controlled not just the ships of that fleet, but also its amphibious forces and supporting land-based planes. That meant that when Spruance wanted to use Army B-24s in the forward area to scout for his carrier forces, he could just order them to do so. He didn’t need to request permission from a parallel command. Nimitz’s approach was especially important for major amphibious operations. Command rested with a single commander who could coordinate all the forces involved. Usually, for an amphibious operation, that was a naval officer.

MacArthur approached the challenge differently, and maintained a separation of the services—Army, Navy, Army Air Forces—below the level of his headquarters. So, both MacArthur and Nimitz used unified command, but because they unified at different levels, the implications were different. Coordination in MacArthur’s theater required more cross-service collaboration, and, unsurprisingly, he had a larger headquarters as a result. More officers were needed to deal with the greater administrative burden. That coordination also cost time. Late in the war, once the services started to unify across the Pacific, Halsey wanted land-based air support. Instead of just ordering it like Spruance had, Halsey had to wait for his request to go up the command chain to Nimitz, over to MacArthur, and back down to the USAAF planes he needed. That cost time and effort.

The ramifications of this have largely been ignored because by the time the changes took place the war was almost over. The last major operation, the capture of Okinawa, was already under way and although the invasion of Japan was in the planning stages, it did not take place. However, had it taken place, the implications of the new approach would have been very evident. In effect, unity of command in the Pacific had been abandoned. MacArthur was given the Army (and Army Air Forces, again with the exception of the strategic air force) and Nimitz the Navy. They would have had to coordinate and collaborate to successfully invade Japan, and the only place their command chains met was at the JCS. We can see the challenge this presented even in the planning stages. When preparing for the invasion, MacArthur was quite willing to escalate his disagreements with Nimitz to the JCS and pull them into operational planning decisions, such as command arrangements for the amphibious assault on Kyushu.

General MacArthur and Admiral Nimitz arrive on USS Missouri for the signing of the Japanese instrument of surrender, September 2, 1945. (NHHC photo)

I appreciate you linking the combatant commands to the late-war Pacific organization; I hadn’t considered that. As someone who studies naval history, I think the Geographic Combatant Command structure is problematic, but for a different reason. Naval strategy ought to be global in scope. Unfortunately, the combatant command structure assumes that U.S. strategic interests can be geographically compartmentalized. I don’t think that’s true, and I think the emphasis on combatant commands has hindered—or, perhaps more accurately, disincentivized—the development of a global strategy that maximizes the nation’s ability to achieve its geopolitical goals. Instead, the emphasis on optimizing each individual command has led to suboptimizing the whole, which, if you think about it, is a logical outcome from a systems theory perspective. It is like the high-level goal idea from your earlier question about sensing organizations. The current structure constrains the solution space and confines it to things combatant commands can solve. The challenges the U.S. faces are bigger than that. 

Is there anything we haven’t talked about from your book that you feel is important and would like to share?

I alluded to risk earlier, but I think it’s important to stress Nimitz’s approach to it and how it differs from today’s accepted wisdom. Nimitz is famous for emphasizing “calculated risk” at Midway, and appropriately so, but most analyses I’ve seen emphasize the “calculation” and not the “risk.” That makes sense from a contemporary perspective; we tend to assume risk is something we can design out.

Nimitz felt it was something that had to be embraced, that great victories were not possible without embracing a corresponding degree of risk. I think that’s a more appropriate way to view Midway. Nimitz was definitely calculating, but the great risk was not the positioning of the carrier forces. Instead, it was the decision to fight for Midway, to make it the focal point of the ambush Nimitz had been seeking since late April.

Because Nimitz’s gamble worked out, it’s hardly ever questioned, but it was a significant risk. If the Japanese had focused elsewhere, if Midway had been a feint, our view of Nimitz might be very different. He was willing to take that risk because he thought the upside was worth it. He was willing to gamble.

For some final takeaways, what are you reading, what’s next for you, and where can people interact with you or your work in the future?

I’ve got a reading stack that grows faster than I can consume it. One really interesting book I read lately was The Dawn of Everything by David Graeber and David Wengrow, which presents an alternative view of human societal evolution. It is powerful because it undermines the narrative that society evolved in a linear, predictable way and suggests that there are many more alternative approaches to organization and government than we tend to assume.

I also really enjoyed Mike Hunzeker’s Dying to Learn. It is a great complement to my own Learning War. I believe Dr. Hunzeker did an interview with CIMSEC about it. He and I were on a panel together at the Society for Military History’s annual conference, so I wanted to get up to speed on his perspective.

I am also working on a number of things. I recently published an article on the evolution of World War II Pacific logistics in the Journal of Military History. I have co-edited a newly released volume on naval night combat called Fighting in the Dark that covers the period from the Russo-Japanese War through World War II. The U.S. Navy’s approach to night combat has always been of great interest to me, and for that book, I wrote a chapter on the U.S. Navy which focuses on the increasing use of the CIC in 1943 and 1944. I have also got a chapter planned for a Naval War College project, and another book in the works with the Naval Institute Press, on another famous admiral.

Trent Hone is an authority on the U.S. Navy of the early twentieth century and a leader in the application of complexity science to organizational design. He studied religion and archaeology at Carleton College in Northfield, MN and works as a consultant helping a variety of organizations improve their processes and techniques. Mr. Hone regularly writes and speaks about leadership, sensemaking, organizational learning, and complexity. His talents are uniquely suited to integrate the history of the Navy with modern management theories, generating new insights relevant to both disciplines. He tweets at @Honer_CUT and blogs at trenthone.com.

Lieutenant Kyle Cregge is a U.S. Navy Surface Warfare Officer. He is the Prospective Operations Officer for USS PINCKNEY (DDG 91). The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or the Department of Defense.

Featured Image: Fleet Admiral Chester W. Nimitz, Commander in Chief, Pacific Fleet and Pacific Ocean Areas, in his office at CinCPac / CinCPOA Advanced Headquarters at Guam, in July 1945. (NHHC photo)

Pitch Your Capability Week Concludes on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

Last week CIMSEC ran pieces submitted in response to our call for articles on pitching novel capability ideas. 

As technology changes and the threat environment intensifies, the ability to harness disruptive innovation will be a major source of competitive advantage. Authors assessed platform concepts for contested logistics and fielding modular capability, as well as for fulfilling burgeoning ISR demand. Such capabilities and concepts offer novel sources of advantage that could change the character of the competition and drive rival powers toward costly counters. 

Below are the authors who featured during CIMSEC’s Pitch Your Capability Topic Week. We thank them for their excellent contributions.

Procuring Modular Containerships for Flexible and Affordable Capability,” by Tyler Totten

Containerships can act as valuable force multipliers and retain a significant amount of modularity in a time when conventional naval force structure is at risk of falling behind the rapidly evolving state of capability.

When the Balloon Goes Up: Naval Mesh Networking with Stratospheric Balloons,” by Mark Howard

Traditional conceptions of what military capability “ought” to look like must give way to more nuanced visions of what is possible amidst the evolving technological landscape. In the case of stratospheric balloons, the capability is already quite mature and ripe for exploitation.

The NightTrain: Unmanned Expeditionary Logistics for Sustaining Pacific Operations,” by CDR Todd Greene

The USMC is aware of the logistics challenges accompanying their shift in doctrine against a peer adversary. There are many efforts to address the problem, but none cohesively solve it end-to-end. A solution is needed to address not only the challenges of long-distance contested transit across the open ocean, but also the last mile from sea to shore. A new, simple, and survivable system and its attendant concepts of operation could address these challenges and help provide consistent logistical support to stand-in forces.

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at Content@cimsec.org.

Featured Image: Arabian Gulf (March 8, 2023) An Aerovel Flexrotor unmanned aerial vehicle takes off from the flight deck of the guided-missile destroyer USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) in the Arabian Gulf, March 8, 2023, during International Maritime Exercise 2023. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Elliot Schaudt)

Sea Control 435 – The High Seas Treaty with Gabrielle Carmine

By Jared Samuelson

Gabrielle Carmine joins the program to provide a first-hand account of the passage of the High Seas Treaty. Gabrielle is a fourth-year Marine Science and Conservation PhD student at Duke University in the Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab. Her doctoral research in ocean science focuses on high seas fisheries, corporate powers, and ocean governance.

Download Sea Control 435 – The High Seas Treaty with Gabrielle Carmine

Links

1. “Agreement Reached to Advance High Seas Treaty,” The High Seas Alliance, March 4, 2023. 

Jared Samuelson is Co-Host and Executive Producer of the Sea Control podcast. Contact him at Seacontrol@cimsec.org.

This episode was edited and produced by David Suchyta.

The NightTrain: Unmanned Expeditionary Logistics for Sustaining Pacific Operations

Pitch Your Capability Topic Week

By CDR Todd Greene

“It is very clear to me that logistics, among the warfighting functions, is the one that we need to make the most progress on right now…My number one focus is logistics, logistics, logistics.” –General David Berger, Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, May 23, 2023.

During a future conflict, the USMC may be operating multiple Expeditionary Advanced Bases (EABs) on dispersed islands across the Western Pacific. Within their respective island groups, the bases may reposition frequently to complicate enemy targeting. These EABs would either be established prior to the conflict while access was open, or they would be forcibly established with the joint support of naval assets fighting their way in. But naval support may not be accessible enough to provide steady logistical support to advance bases. This is an acutely challenging problem for EABs and demands innovation.

The USMC is aware of the logistics challenges accompanying their shift in doctrine against a peer adversary. There are many efforts to address the problem, but none cohesively solve it end-to-end. A solution is needed to address not only the challenges of long-distance contested transit across the open ocean, but also the last mile from sea to shore. A new, simple, and survivable system and its attendant concepts of operation could address these challenges and help provide consistent logistical support to stand-in forces.

Revising the Iron Triangle

Supplying widely distributed EABs of varying size, composition, and organic capability presents two sets of challenges – long-range transits across thousands of miles of contested open oceans, and last-tactical-mile delivery over an unimproved shoreline and into the hands of stand-in forces. Today’s systems mainly focus on one or the other, but there is nothing that can do both well.

Innovation must be directed at designing connectors that can bridge capability between these two distinct challenges. They must be able to transit oceanic spaces that feature hostile environments stemming from the open ocean environment and adversary capability. After traversing these many miles, the same system must somehow get supplies across a beach and into the hands of the stand-in force. Innovative connectors are necessary to provide the vital link between the stand-in forces and seabases or logistics hubs.

To help define the design of a new, innovative logistical connector it is important to first articulate and prioritize the system’s characteristics. Historically, a system that carries a payload is constrained by what is referred to as the “Iron Triangle” – range, speed, and payload weight. To increase performance in one area, the other two must suffer. Typically a tool cannot go fast and far while carrying a large load. Designers must pick one attribute to emphasize, or accept compromises across all. While these three traditional characteristics are still valid, the unique attributes of the transoceanic contested logistic problem leads to a revised iron triangle – efficiency, survivability, and cost.

Efficiency must be a driving consideration in any attempt to solve a problem when a cargo is being transported. Efficiency is often gauged by Freight Ton Efficiency (FTE), and measured in cargo ton-miles per gallon. When framed within the transoceanic lens, the optimized solution to move a variety of cargo already exists – the large containership. Unfortunately, a containership does not effectively meet the other two criteria.

By layering the additional need to not just cross an ocean, but cross a contested ocean, survivability must also be considered. The most efficient solution is no longer viable, since the typical containership is not survivable in wartime. Specifically, it is susceptible to targeting, vulnerable to attack, and does not have any ability to recover mission capabilities after suffering damage. Looking toward historic examples for design inspiration, the survivable solution to transoceanic contested logistics has historically been an escorted convoy.

The first two attributes of our revised iron triangle push the design solution for contested logistics in the direction of large commercial shipping, escorted for thousands of miles by an assortment of warships capable of providing area defense against a variety of multi-domain threats. The reality of available resources makes this a nonviable solution. By taking cost into consideration, the optimum solution becomes something simple, easy to build, and ideally shifts the enemy’s detect-to-engage calculus to where it becomes more expensive to find and kill the logistic system than the system itself. An example of a system matching this description is a simple steel barge.

The revised iron triangle is pushing for an innovation that features the best attributes of a containership, an escorted convoy, and a simple steel barge. How do we best combine these attributes and cross the shoreline?

Early Era Submarines and Narco-Subs

An emerging area of research being done at the Naval Academy and other facilities is in the specific hydrodynamic attributes of semi-submersible vessels (SSVs).1 This research has combined computational fluid dynamics, experimental tow tank testing, and parametric analysis of past and present examples.

Seagoing vessels are typically categorized as a surface ship, with the majority of the hull and superstructure existing and operating above the waterline, or as an undersea vessel that operates primarily completely submerged. A semi-submersible vessel is a hybrid that combines the properties of a surface ship and submarine to partially immerse, minimizing its above-waterline profile, while still remaining on the surface at all times. Yet only about 15-20 percent of a semi-submersible’s volume is above the surface.

In contrast to submarines, an SSV is dramatically simpler in both propulsion and structure. Due to its access to atmospheric air it can be propelled by standard internal combustion engines. It does not need to withstand high hydrostatic pressures since it does not dive, thus eliminating the costs to produce a vessel that can withstand oceanic pressure while submerged. It does not need control surfaces and mechanisms to maneuver sub-surface in three dimensions, further reducing cost.

By operating with a significant fraction of the hull submerged, the SSV differentiates itself from a surface vessel. Being in this semi-submerged regime has obvious advantages in reducing its observable signature. Additionally, there are significant wave-making resistance reductions, in the right conditions, discussed below.

World War I and II submarines frequently operated in a semi-submerged state, and a review of their operational and design parameters provides some instructive guidance for a modern SSV design. A statistical analysis revealed that significant operational advantages were realized in these early designs by optimizing the length to beam ratio and the speed to length ratio. A second, supporting parametric analysis was conducted on the only valid example of a semi-submersible operating in significant numbers today – the narcotics smuggling “narco-sub.” The results agreed with the early era submarine analysis and pointed to potentially advantageous design characteristics.

The U.S. Navy submarine USS Wahoo (SS-238) steaming off the Mare Island Naval Shipyard, California in a semi-submerged state on July 14, 1943. (Photo via Wikimedia Commons)

Using these historic and modern-day examples as a starting point, a set of computational and physical experiments were envisioned and conducted. The results of the experiments confirmed that there is indeed an efficiency advantage to be had by a semi-submersible if the SSV geometry is optimized and it is operated at the best speed.2 In other words, given two identical hulls, one operated primarily as a surface ship, the other operating semi-submerged, the semi-submerged hull can have less drag at the optimal speed.

With the knowledge that a SSV can be both more efficient and lower signature than a comparable surface vessel, the focus shifts to optimizing cost. If all three characteristics can be met, the foundation is laid for the next innovative contested logistics platform.

The Physics (and Beauty) of Shipping Containers

The intermodal shipping container needs no introduction. Nominally a rectangular container, measuring 20 feet in length, 8 feet wide and 8.5 feet high, is known as a TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit). Many variations exist – 40-foot containers, 10-foot containers, Quadcons, High Cubes – but all retain the standard interfaces that allow them to be interchangeably loaded onto a ship, train, truck, and other forms of transport. The intermodal container is the innovation that unleashed the level of efficiencies now seen in transoceanic commerce. This innovation is very powerful in its end-to-end efficiency and must also be applied to optimize cost within the contested logistics problem.

The same characteristics that make the TEU containers valuable for peacetime commerce make them vital to solving contested logistics. The standardized sizes and interfaces not only make loading simpler, it means the material handling equipment to load, unload, and maneuver cargo is mature and universally available. When it comes to cost and production, shipping containers are not hard to acquire and they can be manufactured at many small-scale industrial facilities. Many existing military systems are already designed to be containerized and tens of thousands of containers are immediately available to DoD. Millions of containers are accessible in ports globally today.

U.S. Marine Corps Cpl. Jonathan Perez, a landing support specialist with 3rd Landing Support Battalion, secures a quadcon to a palette during an Alert Contingency Marine Air-Ground Task Force (ACM) drill at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan, Jan. 11, 2023. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Sydni Jessee)

Unfortunately, it is not unheard of for shipping containers to be lost overboard. While not good for commerce, this gives us insight to another attribute that can be leveraged for innovation. Like a ship, a container that is immersed in seawater will sink to the point where the weight of water displaced by the container is equal to the weight of the container. This is known as Archimedes Principle. Hence, a fully laden 20-foot dry container will float for a time. This is because the volume of a 20-foot container is approximately 1,300 ft3. If it were to be fully immersed, it would produce about 83,000 pounds of buoyant force pushing it up, which is more than the 53,000 pounds of gross allowable weight of the container. Much like a semi-submersible, a fully loaded 20-foot container will therefore float with about 15-20 percent of its surface showing above the waterline, until it fills with water and sinks.

Containers come in many shapes and sizes, but only fit together in certain standard arrangements. Logisticians can choose the building blocks necessary to solve the contested logistic problem, while optimizing the freight ton efficiency, and ensuring compatibility with the receiving unit’s material handling capability. Building on conventional container variants, several unique container designs can optimize the opportunity presented by these systems.

  • Commercially available containers (Figure 1):
    • 20-foot TEUs – standard worldwide.
    • 10-foot TEUs – same height and width as a 20-foot container, but half the length.
    • “Quadcons” – same height and width as the 20-foot TEU, but a quarter of the length, and four fit in the footprint of one TEU.
  • Unique containers envisioned for this system, featuring small departures from the current container variants (Figure 2):
    • Half 20-foot – a standard 20-foot TEU split in two lengthwise, resulting in a container 20 feet long, 8.5 feet high, but only 4 feet wide.
    • Buoyancy wedge – triangular prism with the same footprint as a Quadcon.
    • Propulsion wedge – same dimensions as a buoyancy wedge, but with an installed battery-powered waterjet.

Figure 1: A sample of the standard, commercially available, container variants. (Left to right: Quadcon, 20-foot ISO container, 10-foot ISO container. Author graphic.)

Figure 2: Unique Containers envisioned for this system. (Left to right: Buoyancy wedge, Half-20-foot container, Propulsion wedge. Author graphic.)

Putting it Together: An End-to-End Solution

The system’s functional objective is resupply of distributed stand-in forces. The innovative contested logistic platform proposed is called NightTrain. It consists of an unmanned core semi-submersible, a strongback chassis, plus an assortment of standardized containers. The core vessel uses the hydrodynamic findings from the current and historic research to be optimized in shape and speed for long range transit across a variety of sea states, while being mostly submerged and therefore low-signature. It is autonomous and reusable, while housing the navigation and propulsion systems. It is attached to a cargo section through the strongback and propels the combined vessel.

Multiple cargo containers augment the core SSV. Arrangement of the containers is such that they link together to create the hull of the larger vessel. Loaded containers are placed on a standard commercial container trailer chassis. Like Legos, positioning pins on the trailer bed constrain the location of the containers into standardized arrangements. The loaded trailer is trucked from the warehouse to a port where the cargo containers are placed onto the strongback section of the NightTrain SSV. This strongback resembles a standard flatbed trailer. The consolidated NightTrain, with the forward two-thirds of its length being containerized cargo supported above the strongback, and the aft third being the propulsion system, is lowered into the water for departure or onto a mothership for further deployment. 

This combination of containerized shipping technology and a semi-submersible hull meets our design goals of being efficient, survivable, and low cost. It features all the benefits of ISO standardized containers, including common loading, unloading, and material handling systems and interfaces. It exhibits hydrodynamically-optimized geometry and speed, providing for reduced resistance compared with a similar surface vessel. All system sub-components are over-the-highway transportable. The core SSV is a low-tech and affordable vessel that makes for a passively ballasted and traditional air-breathing diesel vessel that can meet the contested logistics challenge.

Crossing the Last Tactical Mile

The functional objective of this system is to deliver needed supplies into the hands of the stand-in forces while minimizing the specialized equipment and training required to process supplies on the receiving end. In many cases, setting a 20-foot container adrift a thousand yards off the beach is of zero practical value. In order to offer a true end-to-end solution, it must be able to cross the beach.

Imagine as the vessel approaches an EAB a certain number of the containers are released. The core vessel continues to the next EAB, and ultimately makes the round trip back to the logistic hub. The containers are released in navigable water just outside the surfline and cross the last tactical mile in one of three ways, depending on the organic capabilities of the stand-in force:

  • Doorstep delivery via buoyant cache. The floating container is retrieved by the receiving unit using assets available to them (such as small boats or rotary wing aircraft), taking advantage of the container’s standardized connection points.
  • Concealed delivery via subsea cache. The container is ballasted to sink when released. The position of the container is known by the receiving unit and combat divers can retrieve it. Buoyancy bags inside the container can be activated by the divers.
  • Direct delivery via self-propelled containers. Standard containers are augmented by external propulsion containers (no larger than a five-foot Quadcon, Figure 3). These containers use a small water jet propulsion system to drive themselves onto a beach down a programmed line of bearing. This method may be reserved for only small units without any retrieval capability.
Figure 3: Half-20-foot container with attached propulsion and buoyancy wedges after being released from the SSV. Note the submerged water jet nozzle. (Author graphic)

Illustrative Cases

Three scenarios are offered as illustrative cases across the spectrum of possible EAB logistical demand, demonstrating the versatility of the system.

EAB #1 – Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR/F-35 FARP)

Consider the challenges of resupplying an island similar in topology as San Clemente Island, but it is not conveniently off the southern California coast. Rather, the nearest major logistical node is more than 2,500 miles away. The island is about 50 square miles, with a primarily rocky coastline, and a small relatively shallow harbor with a pier capable of mooring barges and LCUs. This is a high volume, long-distance voyage. The most constraining logistical needs are: Class III: aviation fuel, and Class V: aviation ordnance. Fortunately, this EAB features organic capabilities that can help facilitate resupply. These retrieval assets include rotary wing aircraft, a small boat unit, heavy material handling equipment, and logistics personnel (Red Patch landing support, aviation ordnance techs, and refueling techs). 

Operating from a nondescript warehouse near a commercial port in Guam, a Marine Corp logistics element receives the demand signal for 12,000 gallons of jet fuel as well as various aircraft repair parts. Two 20-foot containers are each loaded with a 6,000-gallon fuel bladder, and the bladders are filled. After being weighed, the logisticians fill one compartment of the buoyancy bladder in each container with compressed air, close the hatches, and load them on a flatbed container chassis using an overhead crane. Two additional Quadcon containers are packed with shrink-wrapped aircraft parts. These containers are also weighed and the buoyancy bags filled with air, then loaded on the trailer.

The loaded trailer (a 50-foot long combined load) is transported to the local port, lifted onto the waiting strongback, which is already attached to the core SSV. Using standard container hardware, the combined NightTrain SSV is lifted into the water, buoyancy is adjusted, diesels are started, navigation orders are loaded. It commences the 2,300 nautical mile journey to the EAB.

Approximately seven days later, having completed the contested oceanic transit, but unable to approach the island any closer than one nautical mile, the NightTrain SSV releases the cargo containers offshore. The containers float, and visual locator beacons are energized. Marines from the small boat unit, and CH-53Ks from the aviation detachment recover the floating containers. NightTrain transits back to the port where it was launched to refuel and reload.

U.S. Marines with Marine Heavy Helicopter Squadron (HMH) 461 carry a cargo container with a CH-53K King Stallion at Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho, Aug. 11, 2022. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Adam Henke)

EAB #2 – Fires EAB (NMESIS detachment)

Consider an island similar to Snake Island in the Black Sea. While a tactically significant island, it is less than one square mile in area, without much cover. This island does have a short stretch of beach accessible by vehicle. The nearest logistical support node is about 100 nautical miles away. The most constraining logistical demand is Class V: ordnance, specifically canisterized Naval Strike Missiles. The only organic processing asset available on the receiving unit’s end are the NMESIS ordnance techs.

The logistical demand for eight canisterized Naval Strike Missiles is received at the logistics hub. Four “Half-20” containers are loaded with two shrink-wrapped NSM canisters each. After weighing the loaded containers and referring to the buoyancy table, the logisticians fill two compartments of the buoyancy bladders included in the container packout. The half-20s are loaded on a flatbed chassis. Four propulsion wedges are also loaded on the chassis, one attached to the end of each half-20. The total load is 50 feet long and eight feet wide. The trailer is taken to the port, mated with the NightTrain SSV, and launched.

Zmiiny (Snake) Island geographic features. (Image via Navionics)

Upon arrival in the vicinity of the island, all four half-20s are released, each with their own attached propulsion wedge. When afloat they settle on their sides, resembling a rectangular steel barge (20 feet long, 8.5 feet wide, and four feet deep). They are released southeast of the beach on the island and a quarter mile offshore. The electric propulsion units kick on, providing enough thrust and steering control to move the half-20 containers at four knots. The navigation system drives them down the magnetic bearing of 333 until they run aground on the beach. At that point, the NMESIS teams recover the containers with their vehicles, drag them up the beach, and retrieve the missile canisters. The batteries from the propulsion wedges are also recovered and repurposed.

EAB #3 – 6-man Force Recon Team

A recon team is tasked with ES observation using a passive ground-based sensor to provide targeting information to MLR area denial weapons. This unit is positioned on Koto (Xiao-Iam Yu) Island, adjacent to Orchid Island, approximately 40 nautical miles southeast of Taiwan. There are no improved facilities on the island, although it does have a protected sandy beach on its western side and is approachable to about 60 feet of water depth. The nearest logistical support node is between 200-500 nautical miles away. The primary logistical demands are Class III (fuel, 50 gal/day) and Class I. Organic resources available to the team to participate in resupply are just one rubber craft and combat divers.

Logistical demands for 100 gallons of diesel fuel and various food stores are predicted by the logistics depot. A single five-foot long Quadcon container is filled with the supplies and fuel. After being weighed, the logisticians fill three of the buoyancy compartments with water, none with air. A cylinder of compressed air is also attached to the buoyancy bag.

The Quadcon is included with a load of seven other quadcons on a trailer, taken to the port, and loaded onto the NightTrain SSV. The SSV makes the contested transit at 11 knots, stopping at five different waypoints along its way to release various canisters. When it arrives at the island, it releases the Quadcon 250 yards offshore, which sinks to the bottom in 80 feet of water. When ready, the Force Recon combat divers go to the location, dive on the canister, open the hatch, and activate the compressed air canister to float the supplies to the surface.

Ridesharing but for Expeditionary Bases

The rideshare model has shown its value versus the traditional centrally-dispatched taxi. A customer publishes their specific need and a decentralized fleet of suppliers evaluates their own ability to meet that need. The most optimally placed and capable supplier is automatically dispatched to meet the need.

Apply this concept now to our contested logistics problem. By using a combination of standardized and novel container types, many needs of all shapes, sizes, and capabilities can be supplied. There will certainly be many different demands and logistical capabilities of EAB customers. Using a system that allows a unit to publish their need (such as specific quantities of food and fuel) and their retrieval conditions and capability (e.g., rocky coastline, no improved port or protected beach, small boat unit), capable suppliers can self-nominate to fill the demand. This ultimately results in a distributed, resilient logistic network.

The innovative connector that makes this vision possible is an unmanned semi-submersible that serves to transport containers from the source of supply to the stand-in-force. This vehicle is efficient, survivable and relatively inexpensive. It leverages the best of modern logistical and hydrodynamic efficiencies. We call it the SSV NightTrain.

Commander Todd Greene, USN, is an Engineering Duty Officer serving as an naval architecture instructor at the U.S. Naval Academy. He is a graduate of the Naval Postgraduate School and the U. S. Naval Academy. The views and opinions expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Navy.

References

1. Sung, L. P., Matveev, K. I., Morabito, M. G. “Exploratory Study of Design Parameters and Resistance Predictions for Semi-Submersible Vessels.” Naval Engineers Journal, March 2023.

2. Sung, L. P., Laun, A., Leavy, A., Ostrowski, M., Postma, M., “Preliminary Hull-Form Design for a Semi-Submersible Vessel Using a Physics-Based Digital Model.” Naval Engineers Journal, December 2022.

Featured Image: A Rough Terrain Container Handler (RTCH) moving cargo. (USMC photo)

Fostering the Discussion on Securing the Seas.