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Considering Global War: A Strategy for Countering Revisionist Powers

2027 War Readiness Week

By Justin Cobb

Zoom out and look beyond the operational outlooks to consider strategy. Any future conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) begun over an invasion of Taiwan is destined to end up being about more than just the fate of Taiwan. The stakes are much higher than the fate of Taiwan alone. A number of articles and studies have concluded that the best, and perhaps only way to prevail against an invasion of Taiwan is to rapidly defeat and destroy the invasion force itself through a denial strategy.1 These arguments have reviewed the possibilities and implications of horizontal escalation, broadening the war to regions outside of Taiwan, and carefully studied slower more gradual responses such as blockades and sanctions. All have concluded that neither horizontal escalation nor gradual or distant approaches are likely to prevent a successful lodgment of PRC forces on Taiwan, making a PRC victory probable. As accurate as these studies and proposed strategies may be, they have erred from the very start by beginning with the premise that the defense of Taiwan itself is the highest strategic goal should war with the PRC break out.

The denial strategy advocates internalize that a high-intensity limited war fought between the US and PRC is possible, with options for off-ramps from conflict easily defined by either a quick US victory by preventing the initial invasion, or a quick PRC victory by achieving a first successful lodgment and occupation. A more likely scenario, however, is that if large-scale open conflict between the US and the PRC has been initiated, the struggle to defend Taiwan would be better understood as a single named operation in a series of ensuing battles that will almost surely rage through protraction and across theaters regardless of the outcome on the beaches in Taiwan. Neither PRC occupation nor US victory in preventing a successful amphibious landing would present any realistic offramp for cessation of hostilities. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has repeatedly staked its legitimacy on bringing Taiwan to heel.2 Once forces and the reputation of the PRC were committed to combat, CCP leadership would be bound to continue hostilities for many of the same reasons that Russia’s future and fate are tied to Ukraine, except with much higher political and military stakes and much greater depth of resources and social will to continue.3 Even without the strong political, social, and psychological requirements to sustain and prevail, given the PRC’s massive industrial advantage, it would have many rational military incentives to pursue protraction against the United States and hunker down to achieve its objective. Conversely, if Taiwan were lost, the United States would also have little incentive to accept the outcome and work towards some new normalized world order. Even less so if it had lost considerable numbers of servicemembers and forces in the process. Certainly, at some level of loss, it could become politically impossible for either side to disengage, and that level may be a single aircraft carrier, or even a single destroyer.4 

It is challenging to reach the conclusion that after a violent clash and initial outcome on Taiwan that broader war could be quickly terminated. War between the PRC and US could be as catastrophic as that between great powers during the world wars and would carry the nuclear dangers of the Cold War. The stakes of such a conflict would also be broadly similar to both of these historical analogies, the legitimacy of the global order and the future direction of the world.

If a future war over an invasion of Taiwan only signals the opening salvos of a broader conflict for global leadership and order, responses to such an invasion must be understood in that context. How might such a global conflict unfold? How should the US respond to a prolonged struggle in defense of the current rules-based order, and what roles do US allies and partners play in such a conflict? And, if such a future is on the horizon, what should the US and its coalition of like-minded partners and allies be doing now to prevent or prepare for it?

Who is likely to be involved and how might such a conflict play out?

A theory of the conflict should be developed before proposing the way ahead. If the US is prepared to commit huge numbers of forces and resources to defend Taiwan in a high-stakes decisive battle, it must also be cognitively prepared for the possibility of escalation up to and including total war and widespread mobilization of populations and industrial capacity. Committing entire fleets to operations that risk the loss of tens of thousands of servicemembers and perhaps dozens of warships and hundreds of aircraft over a short period by either the US or PRC (or, more likely, both) risks enormous potential to fast-track uncontrolled escalation.

As unlikely as a controlled decisive battle scenario is, a war geographically focused exclusively on Taiwan itself also seems less likely. The current size and capability of both the PRC and US military eliminates the possibility of a single knock-out strike by either side. Whether the PRC strikes US forces first in a Pearl-Harbor redux, or endures the first phase of a US-led denial strategy before openly targeting US forces and allies, both sides would still maintain a massive conventional capability for military response. There is little compelling reason to assume that even after an initial defeat in the Taiwan Strait that the PRC would not open large-scale counteroffensive campaigns that could include land assaults against places that enabled a US response, including parts of the Philippines and Ryukyu Islands of Japan and certainly involve subsequent attempts on Taiwan.5 Such actions would have immediate implications for a rapid denial strategy and likely cause shifts in political and military priorities from the very beginning. The potential scale of the conflict would likely continue to grow.

Outside of the immediate region, increasing cooperation and broadly aligning geopolitical objectives between the PRC, Russia, North Korea, and Iran point to the potential for a conflict that becomes more coordinated than opportunistic and rapidly expands to threaten US interests globally.6 In what has been called the “axis of ill will,” despite their differences in priorities and desired endstates, many signs point to increased cooperation and belligerence from these revisionist actors, not less.7 In Ukraine, the Red Sea, and the Levant, the world is getting a sense of what this cooperation might look like, albeit at a lower intensity than is likely if open conflict breaks out between the PRC and US.8

Planners and strategists should fully expect support and varying levels of involvement from each of these belligerents should conflict initiate over Taiwan. Across the globe, direct, indirect, and opportunistic support will confront the US and its allies in every theater. Large-scale conflict between the US and PRC would provide the pretext and opportunity for Russia to expand its belligerence to smaller or more vulnerable nations, and for Iran to attempt to further regional dominance. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) may be sufficiently deterred by a mutually assured devastation from an outright invasion of the Republic of Korea (ROK). But they should be expected to increase their militancy to tie down ROK support to the US and provide their military support and resources to the PRC, Russia, and Iran at a much larger scale than they have already begun.9 The axis of ill-will would be incentivized to take advantage of the opportunity to harm the US in any way that presents itself. Russian submarines could be hunting US and allied ships in the Atlantic and Pacific while maintaining they were PRC submarines, or Iranian forces dramatically increasing missile and drone attacks against US and allied forces and interests throughout the Middle East.

With increasing rapidity and intensity, military actions and maligned activity would threaten nations across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Simultaneously, irregular and cyber warfare from each revisionist belligerent nation might target western financial, utility, and communications networks. Large swaths of the global commons would be at risk for declared no-fly and maritime exclusion zones – all under constant threat. Maritime shipping and global air travel would be severely impacted and, in some cases, paralyzed. Economies and populations would be held at risk, and irreversibly impacted.

Even at the lowest levels of cooperation and intensity, the US and US-led coalition would be forced to respond to these actions simultaneously. Defending shipping, trade, travel, networks, utility grids, and borders simultaneously, those defending the rules-based order would be hard pressed to also mount sustained large-scale counter assaults focused exclusively on Taiwan. US military support and resources would be in even greater demand to defend the homeland and territories as well as that of allies across the globe, even as they are most urgently needed in mass in the Pacific.

Away from the front lines and missile strikes, a rapid partial decoupling of western economies from China would likely follow any large-scale military conflict and be damaging for both sides. In the economic warfare domain of the conflict, western nations might fare worse in the short run as the PRC has been diligently working to insulate itself from current levers of power, while western nations have done relatively little to de-risk their own economies from reliance on the PRC.10 The economic fallout that is likely to result following a massive military campaign itself could be devastating if full decoupling were to occur.11

In most likely scenarios involving open hostilities between the US and PRC, one thing is almost certain, the status quo ante bellum will not return. While regime change or total victory are far outside the scope of any war involving major nuclear powers, cessation of conflict by either grinding protraction or reasoned detente will still leave a world forever changed. Even in the best-case scenarios that do not involve total war or nuclear exchanges, once large-scale open conflict has commenced the most likely conclusion will be a perpetual state of lower end conflict with occasional high-intensity flare-ups until significant leadership or political changes occurred in either the PRC or the west. If the US was substantially damaged through such a conflict, a new era of global instability, violence, and balkanization would likely take hold, as those no longer restrained by American security guarantees take advantage of a more permissive global environment.

How can the US respond and what roles will allies and partners play?

A strategy that emphasizes speed and large-scale force-on-force actions should be considered the least preferable. Such a strategy risks more unpredictable outcomes, considerably less opportunities to politically message and manage escalation, and is simultaneously far less likely to receive in-kind support from most US allies. Additionally, if the US were to lose or even draw such a large-scale high-stakes engagement, it would have the deleterious effect of leaving allies and partners more vulnerable to follow-on aggression globally.

Assuming deterrence has failed, the US-led coalition should instead focus on building responses designed to degrade and deny the long-term strategic objectives of the revisionist coalition. The range of response options should allow the US to buy time and pursue alternate outcomes while broadly shoring up and defending the global order – directly countering the ultimate strategic objectives of the revisionist block. Relying on proxies (namely the Taiwanese military or remnants of that military should the main force be defeated), non-attributional and irregular responses across all domains, and political and economic pressure at the outset of conflict would allow the US to also posture and provide military resources globally. Escort duties, air defense, forward presence, and some limited conventional responses will be required across strategically significant regions and in support of allies.

While countering and blocking aggression globally, US aims should be focused on draining revisionist powers of resources, will, legitimacy, and support. The US will need to assume the leading role of a global counter-revisionist response that stitches together allies and partners, protects and reinforces the global economy, and reduces the military and economic capabilities of adversaries in ways that do not threaten existential escalation. This US-led effort must out-compete the PRC for any future global leadership role and win the narrative that will define the global order.

When required, counter-strikes and coordinated offensive action across all domains (including cyber) should be layered with special operations actions, arming and funding proxies and resistance groups, intense lawfare, economic warfare, and the building and strengthening of broadened NATO-like alliances with committed global partners. With few notable exceptions, most US allies are in a better position to contribute to this style and intensity of conflict than large-scale conventional modern warfare. An attempted invasion or strangulation of Taiwan could either serve as the rallying point to dramatically strengthen the resolve of a new coalition of allies and partners steeled to resist the PRC and autocratic and totalitarian regimes, or as the opening stages of an even darker chapter of global disorder and destruction.

What should the US be doing now?

The most urgent effort the US should be undertaking is revitalizing its leadership role and strengthening alliances and relationships globally. At home and abroad, the US should be more clearly articulating the stakes and making the case for why the current rules-based order is worth defending. The most pressing question that should be asked is how to better compete and win without widescale conflict, and how to design and inspire a deterrence strategy that is truly whole-of-government and coordinated with allies and partners to resist the revisionist order envisioned by rivals.12 The defense of Taiwan is only one component of an effort that requires Cold War-like mobilization of governments, economies, and militaries with shared values and a vision of the future that is not dominated by oppressive authoritarian regimes.

While it is true the US and the west more broadly are increasingly engaging and challenging the PRC across the diplomatic, information, military, and economic spectrum, it does not appear well-coordinated and does not seem to have clear leadership. This is visible even within the Department of Defense where the services can be readily seen pursuing different priorities, objectives, and theories of competition and victory, even while congressional reports implore a comprehensive strategic posture.13 The confused response levied against the PRC for activities in the South China Sea targeting the Philippines and the Second Thomas Shoal provide a pointed example of how far the US still has to go to mount a unified counter-response to the revisionist deconstruction of the global order.14

The US can and should lead a strengthened diplomatic, economic, and legal effort, bolstered by meaningful multi-lateral non-military response options, to rally the rest of the world against PRC actions and behaviors. There is a lot of distance between holding the line or pushing back against PRC malign and illegal activity in the global commons on one hand and preparing the US military for massive kinetic response options on the other. If the US is unable or unwilling to do the former, the latter should not be seriously considered. Furthermore, the overarching strategic objective cannot be simply to deny offensive action across the Taiwan Strait. Developing a force focused on a specific operational outcome may be as likely to achieve that objective as it is to become the Maginot Line of the modern era. Making matters worse, such a narrowly-focused strategy could also heighten the prospect of broader deterrence failure in the first place.15

The U.S. has already moved into an era beyond straightforward competition for global order. The revisionist challengers have signaled they intend to use violence and military strength rather than economics, influence, and soft power to usher this change.16 Recognizing this fact, those committed to the defense of the current global order must prepare. A denial strategy focused exclusively on Taiwan is not a true strategy but rather a subsidiary campaign objective. Zoom out and assess the broader implications of countering destructive revisionist powers. Western aligned nations must begin expanding military power and cooperation immediately and address the dilemmas that define effective force design and deterrence posturing globally.17 NATO and new NATO-like alliances of like-minded nations must be developed, strengthened and postured everywhere to defend the global commons, protect our way of life, and defend our shared values. The US certainly needs more ships, aircraft, and missiles, but it also needs to articulate the stakes, prepare economies and people, and engage across every domain to counter and out-compete revisionist nations.

Commander Cobb is an operations staff officer with Carrier Strike Group 11. A rotary-wing aviator, he previously served as the training officer for the SEAWOLF Rotary Wing Weapons School at NAWDC in Fallon, NV, and as the commanding officer of Helicopter Training Squadron 18 at Naval Air Station Whiting Field in Milton, Florida. A graduate of the Joint Forces Staff College, he conducted his joint tour at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe in Mons, Belgium, where he was the lead action officer for several strategic projects including the NATO joint command-and-control concept.

References

1 Heim, Jacob L., Zachary Burdette, and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga. “US Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People’s Republic of China.” RAND Corporation, February 21, 2024. https://doi.org/10.7249/PEA1743-1.

2 Roy, Denny. “China Struggles to Repurpose the Lessons of the Pearl Harbor Attack.” Asia Times, December 28, 2023. https://asiatimes.com/2023/12/china-struggles-to-repurpose-the-lessons-of-the-pearl-harbor-attack/.

3 Schroeder, Peter. “Putin Will Never Give Up in Ukraine—The West Can’t Change His Calculus—It Can Only Wait Him Out.” Foreign Affairs, September 3, 2024. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-will-never-give-ukraine.

4 Krepinevich Jr., Andrew F. “Protracted Great-Power War: A Preliminary Assessment.” Center for New American Security, February 2020. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/protracted-great-power-war.

5 Geist, Edward. “Defeat Is Possible.” War on the Rocks, June 17, 2021. https://warontherocks.com/2021/06/defeat-is-possible/.

6 Chivvis, Christopher S., and Jack Keating. “Cooperation Between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia: Current and Potential Future Threats to America.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 8, 2024. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/cooperation-between-china-iran-north-korea-and-russia-current-and-potential-future-threats-to-america?lang=en.

7 Brands, Hal. “China, Russia, and Iran Are Reviving the Age of Empires.” Bloomberg, April 13, 2024. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2024-04-14/china-russia-and-iran-are-rebuilding-empires-to-defeat-us-europe.

8 Fong, Clara, and Lindsay Maizland. “China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers.” Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-russia-relationship-xi-putin-taiwan-ukraine.

9 Park, Ju-min, and Jack Kim. “North Korean Troops in Russia Readying for Combat in Ukraine War, South Korea Says.” Reuters, October 18, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-north-korea-troop-dispatch-russia-is-grave-security-threat-2024-10-18/.

10 Collins, Gabriel. “The US-China Economic Relationship Needs ‘Robust De-Risking,’ and a Little Strategic ‘Decoupling.’” Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, November 13, 2023. https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/us-china-economic-relationship-needs-robust-de-risking-and-little-strategic-decoupling.

11 Wright, Logan, Agatha Kratz, Charlie Vest, and Matt Mingey. “Retaliation and Resilience: China’s Economic Statecraft in a Taiwan Crisis.” The Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center, April 2024. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/retaliation-and-resilience-chinas-economic-statecraft-in-a-taiwan-crisis/

12 David, Arnel P., Sean A. Acosta, and Nicholas Krohley. “Getting Competition Wrong: The US Military’s Looming Failure.” Modern War Institute at West Point, December 3, 2021. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/getting-competition-wrong-the-us-militarys-looming-failure/.

13 The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States. October 2023. https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/A/Am/Americas%20Strategic%20Posture/Strategic-Posture-Commission-Report.pdf.

14 Danby, Nick. “By, With, and Through at the Second Thomas Shoal.” War on the Rocks, May 20, 2024. https://warontherocks.com/2024/05/by-with-and-through-at-the-second-thomas-shoal/.

15 Montgomery, Evan. “Kill ’Em All? Denial Strategies, Defense Planning, and Deterrence Failure.” War on the Rocks, September 24, 2020. https://warontherocks.com/2020/09/kill-em-all-denial-strategies-defense-planning-and-deterrence-failure/.

16 Van de Velde, James. “What Is ‘Strategic Competition’ and Are We Still in It?” The SAIS Review of International Affairs, February 2, 2024. https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/what-is-strategic-competition-and-are-we-still-in-it/.

17 Brands, Hal, and Zack Cooper. “The Marshall Papers—Dilemmas of Deterrence: The United States’ Smart New Strategy Has Six Daunting Trade-offs.” Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), March 12, 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/dilemmas-deterrence-united-states-smart-new-strategy-has-six-daunting-trade-offs.

Featured Image: MANILA, Philippines (April 28, 2023) – Amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD 8) arrives in the Philippines for a regular scheduled port visit. (US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Apprentice Dominic Delahunt)

Weaponized Containers: A Warship-in-a-Box for Warfighting Advantage

2027 War Readiness Week

By Steve Wills

Introduction

Naval vessels of all types have grown over the past 50 years. Even relatively low-end warship classes, such as the littoral combat ship, possessed significant system complexity. The tilt towards increasing warship complexity occurred before the mid-20th century. Arguably, the warship significantly diverged from its civilian, merchant counterparts around the time of the American Civil War (1861-1865), the last major conflict the U.S. converted large numbers of commercial vessels into front-line warships. At the time, one could merely provide a naval crew and mount a few guns onto a merchant ship to create a relevant warship. While that level of simplicity has long passed, technology has again made it possible to use elements of the commercial maritime system to quickly create functional warships. The ubiquitous shipping container, equipped with everything from cruise missiles to towed array sonars, generators, berthing, and command spaces, allows for the conversion of any container-capable commercial ship into a combatant.

These conversions do come with limitations in speed and especially the ability to sustain and recover from damage. That said, the “warship in a box” concept offers navies the ability to create combatants of different sizes and capabilities rapidly, from smaller offshore resupply ships with only a couple of containers to large “missile merchant” vessels depending on the number and types of container-based systems fitted.

Making Warships from 1775 to 1865

The United States Navy began in October 1775 with the basis of its fleet consisting of converted merchant ships. A squadron of ships composed of the vessel Alfred, with 24 guns, and the eight gun schooners Wasp and Fly, formed the first combatant formation. The squadron was responsible for capturing British military supplies in Nassau. Most of the Continental Navy was merchant-based until Congress authorized the first thirteen purpose-built frigates in December 1775. John Paul Jones’ famous vessel, Bonhomme Richard, was a heavier type of cargo vessel class, an East Indiamen that featured strengthened decks to carry a gun armament for self-protection on the trade routes.

By the 1790s and early 1800s, the U.S. Navy was known for its powerful frigate warships, yet it still retained the option to expand its fleet in war through the commissioning of armed merchant vessels as combatants. This practice continued up to and expanded during the Civil War, with the Union Navy expanding 15-fold in numbers, primarily through converted merchant ships. The Brooklyn Navy Yard alone refitted 190 merchant ships as warships and completed one such refit (USS Monticello) in just 24 hours.

While converted merchant ships arguably helped win the Civil War through their use as blockade ships, a combination of technological changes during the Civil War made converted merchant warships far less useful. Heavy rifled guns, armored steel plates, and steam-powered machinery created a new kind of warship that civilian conversions could not easily match or contest. Warships had to be designed to support armor and heavy guns, now mounted in heavy armored turrets. Modern armaments and protective armor could not be easily added to an existing commercial ship.

Gradually, the merchant warship disappeared, although some high-speed ocean liners went to sea with the provision to mount medium-caliber guns to serve as “merchant cruisers” for sea lane patrol and raiding. However, these vessels were no match for purpose-built warships, and the submarine largely assumed the role of raiding naval platforms. The end of the merchant cruiser is perhaps symbolized by the sinking of the British-armed merchant cruiser, HMS Jervis Bay, by the German “pocket battleship,” Admiral Scheer, on November 5th, 1940, in less than 30 minutes of combat.

Return of the Merchant Warship

Unlike the 1940s, today’s merchant ships are often much larger than their warship counterparts. The sheer size of merchant vessels offers some degree of protection through plenty of reserve buoyancy and is resource-friendly by requiring just a handful of sailors to crew them. The introduction of the shipping container in 1956 by American businessman Malcolm McClean effectively invented container intermodalism in the commercial maritime world. Most commercial goods are moved by shipping container, whether by sea, truck, or rail transportation. Russia has already weaponized the shipping container, and perhaps the Chinese as well with containerized cruise missile launchers.

The concept is that an armed merchant ship might serve as a hidden raider or provide defense against seizure by an adversary. For the United States, the growing number of containerized systems, including cruise missiles, suggests a return to a pre-1865 period when commercial ships could be rapidly converted into effective warships. The shipping container’s many forms become the basis for returning to a merchant warship armed with modern weapons capable of fighting and sinking purpose-built combatants.

Depiction of how containerized systems can fit together as a warship. (Author graphic)

What types of systems can be containerized for combat?

While shipping containers fitted with missiles have captured most of the attention, many other variants exist that could serve to create a containerized warship. Finnish defense contractor Patria created a 120mm gun system that fits within a shipping container. The weapon box contains 100 rounds of ammunition, requires a crew of three to operate, is self-contained with air conditioning, and resists chemical/biological/radioactive (CBR) agent penetration.

Anti-submarine warfare systems can also come as containerized packages. Atlas-Electronik makes a two-container, plug-and-play, towed array sonar system complete with operator consoles in one of the containers. Loitering drone munitions are another option. German defense contractor Rhinemettal makes a modified shipping container with 126 launch cells for the Hero loitering munition (suicide) drone. Other containerized applications include secondary weapon systems, additional sensors, data storage, medical facilities, and control spaces. Containerized generators offer energy solutions for powering these systems. Containers can also house combat information centers and additional crew berthing.

The full rendering of the containerized launch system for Hero family loitering munitions. (Rheinmetall graphic)

Pulling Containerized Systems into a Warship in a Box

Containers are the basis of goods movement globally, available in numbers and able to fit on a wide range of vessel types and sizes. Containers with military capabilities can be hardwired together to form a complete system or connected with Wi-Fi in some applications to reduce vulnerability to connection loss due to battle damage.

The modular nature of containerized warships means that training can occur on or off the ship platform. The warship-in-a-box system can be exercised ashore on a pier just as easily as at sea. Given this feature, it might be a good concept for the Naval Reserve to embrace for rapid integration into the fleet. Naval Reserve units located at inland sites could still train with their containers and have regular transportation to port facilities for embarkation on suitable ships for at-sea exercises.

The containers that comprise “Warship-in-a-Box” would be loaded onto an appropriate-sized civilian-built ship, from an offshore resupply vessel to a Panamax container ship in size, and crewed with a Navy complement of sailors approximating the crew of comparable civilian vessels. The idea is to keep the crew size to a minimum to save costs and maximize the number of container warships that can be created. The ship can be painted a haze grey or leave it in merchant livery as a “Q-ship” if desired. Finally, commission it with the appropriate USS Ship Name.

USS Savannah (LCS 28) conducts a live-fire demonstration in the Eastern Pacific Ocean utilizing a MK70 containerized launching system that fired an SM-6 missile from the ship at a designated target. (US Navy photo)

Unlike traditional warships requiring individual weapon system reloads, the warship in a box is defined by its self-contained, containerized capabilities. Warships require specialized equipment and facilities for replenishment of weapons in port. The potential underway reloading of missiles is several years away and still being tested. The warship-in-a-box concept simplifies reloading with containerized systems that can be installed on ships with existing equipment in container ports around the United States. Safety precautions, especially for weapons susceptible to electromagnetic energy, remain a concern. Still, ports worldwide can handle containerized systems with relative ease, unlike purely naval ports, where conventional warships are replenished. This greatly expands the scope of available infrastructure and equipment that can contribute to containerized capabilities.

Like current uncrewed navy ships that are starting to exploit containerized weapons, the warship-in-a-box concept would be deployed for exercises and some contingencies, but would essentially be a “break glass in the event of war” capability to rapidly augment the fleet with additional vessels for warfighting missions depending on numbers and types of containers embarked. They could range in size from large container missile arsenal ships with dozens or hundreds of weapons to offshore resupply ships with only four to six containers supporting one or two basic missions. The Navy has already experimented with shipping container weapons on conventional warships, so moving to a vessel with all capabilities housed in containers is a logical next step.

Drawbacks to the Warship-in-a-Box

While the concept can rapidly bring together the capabilities of a frigate-sized ship, both the host platforms and containerized systems have numerous weaknesses that conventional warships do not possess. Most commercial ship platforms that could host a container-based system are slow, with speeds of only 13 to 16 knots, and are often unsuitable for fleet operations. There would be little to no redundancy in systems or people, features that characterize conventional warships. They are effectively auxiliary warships like the many converted commercial craft seen in world navies into the mid-19th century, but armed with lethal fires and capable of inflicting significant damage on an opponent at relatively low cost and personnel.

Conclusion

The warship-in-a-box program is not a substitute for purpose-built warships that are globally deployable and commanded by national leadership. However, a force of these units in the hands of the naval reserve could be a quickly deployable and operational group of second-tier units for patrol, escort, and even strike operations given the potential size of their missile magazine. Any conflict with a peer opponent would be global, and historically navies find that they never have enough ships to cover all tasks that surface in the course of a major conflict. Using the shipping container, the building block of the maritime world, represents a relatively quick and easy method of creating additional naval capacity to improve warfighting advantage.

Dr. Steven Wills is a navalist for the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States. He is an expert in U.S. Navy strategy and policy and U.S. Navy surface warfare programs and platforms. His research interests include the history of U.S. Navy strategy development over the Cold War and immediate, post-Cold War era, and the history of the post-World War II U.S. Navy surface fleet.

Featured Image: A containership at port. (Photo via Wikimedia Commons)

Topic Week on Readiness for Pacific War 2027 Kicks Off on CIMSEC

By Dmitry Filipoff

This week CIMSEC will be featuring writing submitted in response to our Call for Articles on readiness for Pacific war in 2027.

Speculation has abounded as to whether China may or may not actually go to war in 2027. Regardless, the date has offered a benchmark to gauge readiness and spurred militaries to carefully consider their options for improvement if war may only be a few short years away.

Below are the articles and authors that will feature during the topic week. This list will be updated further submissions as the topic week unfolds.

Weaponized Containers: A Warship-in-a-Box for Warfighting Advantage,” by Steve Wills
Considering Global War: A Strategy for Countering Revisionist Powers,” by Justin Cobb
“The Maritime Convoys of 2027: Supporting Taiwan in Contested Seas,” by Nathan Sicheri
“The Four-Block Littoral Force Revisited: Force Design and Marine Littoral Regiment Boarding Teams,” by Clay Robinson

“To Prepare for Pacific War by 2027, the United States Must Harden its Southern Flank,” by Henry Ziemer

Dmitry Filipoff is CIMSEC’s Director of Online Content. Contact him at Content@cimsec.org.

Featured Image: PLA Navy warships conduct replenishment-at-sea during a comprehensive replenishment training exercise. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Xu Taotao)

The Story of William Garrison Payne, The U.S. Navy’s first Black Commissioned Officer

By Reuben Keith Green

The hidden story of the U.S. Navy’s first Black commissioned officer spans five decades, three continents, two world wars, two wives from different countries, and one hell of a journey for an Indiana farm boy. For mutual convenience, both he and the United States Navy pretended that he wasn’t Black. This story had almost been erased from history until the determined efforts of one of his extended relatives, Jeff Giltz of Hobart, Indiana, brought it to light.1

From before World War I until after World War II, leaders in the U. S. government and Navy would make decisions affecting the composition of enlisted ranks for more than a century and that still echo in officer demographics today. Memories of maelstroms past reverberate in today’s discussions regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), affirmative action in the military academies, meritocracy over so-called “DEI Hires,” who is and is not Black, and in renaming – or not – bases and ships that honor relics of America’s discriminatory and exclusionary past. Before Doris “Dorie” Miller received the Navy Cross for his actions on December 7th, 1941, and long before the Navy commissioned the Golden Thirteen in 1945, Lieutenant (junior grade) William Lloyd Garrison Payne was awarded the Navy Cross for the hazardous duty of commanding the submarine chaser USS SC-83 in 1918. While his Navy Cross citation is sparse, the hazards of hunting submarines from a 110-foot wooden ship were considerable. His personal and professional history, still emerging though it may be, reveals much about the nation and Navy he served and deserves to be revealed in full. Understanding the racial and political climate during which he received his commission is crucial to understanding the importance of his place in Navy history.

Fig. 1: USS SC 83 underway. Lieutenant (junior grade) Payne was awarded the Navy Cross for his service as commanding officer. (Photo credit: National WWI Museum collection 2012.98, via subchaser.org.)

Quietly Breaking Barriers

William Lloyd Garrison Payne was born on Christmas day in 1881 to a White Indiana woman and a Black man, and completed forty years of military service by 1940 – before volunteering for more service in World War II. Garrison Payne’s virtual anonymity, despite his groundbreaking status as the first Black naval officer and a Navy Cross recipient, stemmed from pervasive racial discrimination, manifested in political and public opposition (notably by white supremacist politicians like James K. Varner and John C. Stennis), and internal resistance within the Navy. His long anonymity exemplifies a failure to learn from the past.2

Fig. 02. Ensign Payne (seated), in command of USS SC-83. (Photo credit: subchasers.org.)

Garrison Payne, or W.G. Payne, served in or commanded several vessels and had multiple shore assignments during his five-decade career. His officer assignments include commanding the aforementioned USS SC-83 and serving aboard the minesweeper USS Teal (AD-23), the collier USS Neptune (AC-8), submarine chasers Eagle 19 and Eagle 31, which he may have also commanded, and troop ship USS Zeppelin. He had a lengthy record as a Chief Boatswain’s Mate (Chief Bos’n).

Fig. 03: 1917 North Carolina Service Card, thirty-three year-old Chief Boatswain’s Mate Garrison Payne was discharged from the Navy and immediately “Appointed Officer” (Commissioned) on 15 December 1917 while assigned to the USS Neptune (AC-8) at Naval Base, Plymouth, England. (Credit: Public record in the public domain.)

After his commissioning in Plymouth, he presumably stayed in England and later took command of the USS SC-83 after she transited from New London, Connecticut to Plymouth, England in May 1918.

Garrison Payne took Rosa Manning, a widow with a young daughter, as his first wife in 1916. The 1910 North Carolina Census records indicate that she was the daughter of Sami and Annie Hall, both listed as Black in the census records. Later census records list Rosa Payne as White, and using her mother’s maiden name (Manning), as she did on their 1916 marriage license. His race was also indicated as White on the license, and his parents listed as Jackson Payne and Ruth Myers (Payne), his maternal grandparents.

Fig. 04: Garrison Payne and an unidentified woman, possibly his second wife Mary Margaret Payne, presumably taken in the latter 1920s, location unknown. Courtesy of Jeff Giltz.

In the photo above, Payne, wearing the rank of lieutenant, stands beside an unidentified Black woman, who may be his wife. He brought back Mary Margaret Duffy from duty in Plymouth, England on the USS Zeppelin, a troop transport, in 1919, listing her on ship documents as his wife. He used various first names and initials to apparently help obscure his identity.

Jeff Giltz of Hobart, Indiana is the great grandson of Gertrude “Gertie” Giltz, Garrison’s half-sister by the same mother, Mary Alice Payne. She was unmarried at the time of his birth in 1881. Her father, Jack Payne was the son of a Robert Henley Payne, who traveled first from Virginia to Kentucky, and then settled in Indiana, may have been mixed race. During the U.S. Census, census takers wrote down the race of household occupants as described by the head of the household. Many light-skinned Blacks thereby entered into White society by “turning White” during a census year. It is unknown when Garrison made his “transition” from Black or “Mulatto” to White.

None of Garrison’s half-siblings, who were born to his mother after she married Lemuel Ball, share his dark complexion. When she married, Garrison was sent to live nearby with his uncle, William C. Payne, whose wife was of mixed race. In the 1900 Census, Garrison is listed as a servant in his uncle’s household, not his nephew.

Taken together – Garrison Payne’s dark skin, the fact that the identity of his father was never publicly revealed and that he was born out of wedlock with no birth certificate issued, that he was named for a famous White Boston abolitionist and newspaper publisher,3 that his White mother gave him her last name instead of his father’s, that he was sent away after his mother married, and the oral history of his family – all point to the likelihood that Garrison Payne was Black.

In the turn of the century Navy, individuals were sometimes identified as “dark” or “dark complexion” with no racial category assigned. Payne self-identified as White on both of his known marriage licenses. According to Jeff Giltz, there are many references to Garrison Payne in online genealogy, military records and newspaper sites, but none appear on the Navy Historical and Heritage Command (NHHC) website. His military service likely began in 1900.

Rolling Back Racial Progress during Modernization

In his 1978 book Manning the Navy: The Development of a Modern Naval Enlisted Force, 1898-1940, former U.S. Naval Academy Associate Professor Frederick S. Harrod discusses several of the policies enacted during that period that helped shaped today’s Navy.4 He describes how the famously progressive Secretary of the Navy (1913-1919) Josephus Daniels, otherwise notorious for banning alcohol from ships, brought Jim Crow policies to a previously partially integrated Navy (enlisted ranks only) and banned the first term enlistment of Negro personnel in 1919, a ban that would last until 1933. No official announcement of the unofficial ban was made, but Prof. Harrod asserts that it was instituted by an internal Navy Memorandum from Commander Randall Jacobs, who later issued the Guide to Command of Negro Personnel, NAVPERS-15092, in 1945. President Woodrow Wilson and Daniels were both staunch segregationists and White supremacists. The Navy became more rather than less racially restrictive during the Progressive Era because of the lasting effects of both Secretary Daniels and President Wilson.

The number of Negro personnel dropped from a high of 5,668 in June of 1919 – 2.26% of the total enlisted force – to 411 in June of 1933, a total of 0.55% of the total force of 81,120 enlisted men. Most of the Black sailors were in the Stewards Branch, and most were low ranking with no authority over White sailors, despite their many years of service and experience. Those very few “old salts” outside that branch, like Payne, were difficult to assign, as the Navy did not want them supervising White sailors, despite their expertise and seniority.

Following his temporary promotion to the commissioned officer ranks – rising as far as lieutenant on 01 July 1919 – Garrison Payne was eventually reverted to Chief Bos’n, until he was given an honorific, or “tombstone”, promotion to the permanent grade of lieutenant in June of 1940, just before his retirement. Payne died on 14 October 1952 in a Naval Hospital in San Diego California, and was interred in nearby Fort Rosacrans National Cemetery on 20 October 1952, in Section P, Plot P 0 2765 – not in the Officer’s Sections A or B, despite being identified as a lieutenant on his headstone. Garrison Payne’s hometown newspaper’s death notice indicates that he was the grandson of Jack Payne, with no mention of his parents. A handwritten notation on his Internment Control Form indicates that he enlisted on 31 March 1943, making him a veteran of both world wars, as also reflected on his headstone. His service in World War II – as a volunteer 62-year-old retiree – deserves further investigation.

Fig. 05: Garrison Payne’s final resting place, in Section P, Plot P 0 2765 of Fort Rosacrans National Cemetery. Courtesy of U.S. Department of Veteran’s Affairs, Veteran’s Legacy Memorial.

The Navy reluctantly commissioned the Golden Thirteen in 1945 only because of political pressure from the White House and from civil rights organizations like the NAACP, led by Walter F. White, the light-skinned, blond-haired, blue-eyed Atlanta Georgia native who embraced his Black heritage. Unlike Walter White, though, Garrison Payne likely hid his mixed-race heritage to protect his life, his family, and his career. When he married Mary Margaret Duffy in 1937, at the age of 54, he travelled more than 170 miles from San Diego, California to Yuma, Arizona to do so. Why? His new wife, Mary Margaret Duffy, was 37, and an immigrant from Ireland. He had previously listed her as his wife when he transported her to America in 1919. Are there records of this marriage overseas? Would that interracial marriage have been recognized, given that interracial marriage would remain illegal in both states for years to come? On their marriage certificate, as with Payne’s first marriage certificate, both spouses are listed as White.

The Navy’s Circular Letter 48-46, dated 27 February 1946, officially lifted “all restrictions governing the types of assignments for which Negro naval personnel are eligible.” Despite that edict, and President Truman’s Executive Order desegregating the armed forces in 1948, it would be decades before the Navy’s officer ranks would include more than fifty Blacks.

The stories of several early Black chief petty officers are missing from the Navy’s Historical and Heritage Command’s website, though it does include the story of a contemporary of Payne’s, Chief Boatswain’s Mate John Henry “Dick” Turpin, a Black man. That Payne, a commissioned officer, is absent and unrecognized can be attributed to at least five possible reasons.

The first is that the Navy didn’t know of his existence, significance, or accomplishments. Table 5 in Professor Harrods’s book is titled “The Color of the Enlisted Forces, 1906 – 1940,” and is compiled from the Annual Reports of the Chief of Navigation for those years, with eleven different racial categories, including “other.” Where Garrison Payne fell in those figures during his enlisted service is uncertain, but he was present in the Navy for each of those year’s reports.

The second is that Payne had no direct survivors to tell his story, and no one may have asked him to tell it. He and his first wife Rosa likely divorced sometime after the death of their only child. It is unknown if his Irish-born wife Mary Margaret produced any children by Garrison.

The third reason could be that the Navy may have kept his story quiet for his own protection, and that of the Woodrow Wilson administration and the Indiana political leadership. Garrison Payne was commissioned by the same President Woodrow Wilson who screened the movie Birth of a Nation at the White House in 1915, re-segregated the federal government offices in Washington DC, refused to publicly condemn the racial violence and lynching during the “Red Summer” of 1919, and whose Secretary of the Navy, Josephus Daniels, was one of the masterminds behind the 1898 Wilmington Insurrection, which violently overthrew an elected integrated government in Wilmington, North Carolina. Acknowledging Payne as a decorated and successful Black naval officer would have been an embarrassment to Wilson, Daniels, and undercut their political and racist agendas.

Black veterans were specifically targeted after both world wars, by both civilians and military personnel, to reassert White supremacy. Payne was from Indiana, where the Ku Klux Klan was revived in 1915, and became a very powerful organization in the 1920’s. Such organizations may have sought out and harassed Payne and his family, had they known that this Black Indiana farm boy, born to a White mother, had not only received a commission in the U.S. Navy but had commanded White men in combat.

The fourth reason is that the Navy may have wanted to hide his racial identity. His record of accomplishment as a Navy Cross recipient and ship’s C.O. would have undermined the widespread belief that Black men could not perform successfully as leaders, much less decorated military officers. He was not commissioned as part of some social experiment or social engineering, but because the Navy needed experienced, reliable men to man a rapidly-expanding fleet and train inexperienced crews. Garrison Payne did just that, during years of dangerous duty at sea.

The fifth reason may be that Payne recognized the benefits of passing for White to his life and career, which may have compelled him to do so. He was raised in a largely white society, by white-appearing relatives. Had he not successfully “passed,” he likely would not have been commissioned.

Regardless of the reasons in the past, it is now time to herald the brave naval service of Garrison Payne. The Navy Historical and Heritage Command, the Smithsonian Institution, the Indiana Historical Society, the Hampton Roads Navy Museum, and others should work together to bring his amazing story out of the shadows.

Why Garrison Payne’s Story Matters

For years, many Black naval officers have searched in vain for stories of their heroic forebearers. Actions taken by politicians regarding nominations to military academies for much of the 20th century helped ensure that Black military officers remained a rarity, particularly those hailing from Southern states.5 The life story of Lieutenant Garrison Payne needs to be thoroughly documented and publicized because representation matters. On a personal note, knowing of his story while I was serving as one of the few Black officers in the Navy would have inspired me immensely. Garrison Payne served as likely the only Black officer in the Navy for his entire career. He showed what was possible. Heralding his trailblazing career can only positively impact the discussions about the future composition of the U.S. Navy’s officer corps as it inspires generations of sailors. Historians and researchers should continue the work of archival research to gain a fuller understanding of his story and significance. My hope is that veteran’s organizations and national institutions such as the Smithsonian Institution begin the effort to flesh out the story of Lieutenant Garrison Payne.

Reuben Keith Green, Lieutenant Commander, USN (ret) served 22 years in the Atlantic Fleet (1975-1997). After nine years in the enlisted ranks as a Mineman, Yeoman, and Equal Opportunity Program Specialist, he graduated from Officer Candidate School in 1984 and then served four consecutive sea tours. Both a steam and gas turbine qualified engineer officer of the watch (EOOW), he served as a Tactical Action Officer (TAO) in the Persian Gulf, and as executive officer in a Navy hydrofoil, USS Gemini (PHM-6). He holds a Master’s degree from Webster University in Human Resources Development, and is the author of Black Officer, White Navy – A Memoir, recently published by University Press of Kentucky.

Endnotes

1. Except as otherwise cited, research in this article is based on documents in the author’s possession and oral history interviews with Mr. Jeff Giltz.

2. War and Race: The Black Officer in the American Military. 1915-1941, 1981, Gerald W. Patton, Greenwood Press

3. All on Fire: William Lloyd Garrison and the Abolition of Slavery, 2008, Henry Mayer, W. W. Norton and Company

4. Manning the New Navy: The Development of a Modern Naval Enlisted Force, 1899-1940, 1978, Frederick S. Harrod, Greenwood Press.

5. The Tragedy of the Lost Generation, Proceedings, August 2024, VOL 150/8/1458, John P. Cordle, Reuben Keith Green, U.S. Naval Institute.

Featured Image: SC 83 underway, steaming under a bridge. (Photo via Subchaser.org)