All posts by Juramentado

China Seizes U.S. Navy Underwater Drone

By Armando J. Heredia

Grpahic by CIMSEC Member Louis MV

On December 15th 2016, the Chinese Navy seized an American unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) operating in international waters off the Western coast of the Philippines. The USNS Bowditch, an unarmed T-AGS class hydro-graphic survey ship, was being shadowed by a People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) salvage vessel identified as a Dalang-III class (ASR-510).

The UUV had surfaced as part of a pre-programmed instruction, and sent  a radio signal marking it’s position for pick-up. As the Bowditch was preparing to recover the drone from the water, a small boat crew from the Dalang III raced in and plucked the unmanned vessel. The incident occurred approximately 50 nautical miles northwest of Subic, Luzon.

While the exact type of drone is unknown, there have been several instances of U.S. Navy Slocum Gliders snagged in local fishermens’ nets or washed ashore on beaches in the Philippines. This type of drone is not weaponized, and is used to collect a variety of environmental readings such as water temperature and salinity, to improve forecasting accuracy of extreme weather such as typhoons. The UUV uses wave movement to propel itself without any on-board engines, with an endurance time of months. The Department of Defense estimates the seized drone’s value to be around $150,000.

The crew of the Bowditch immediately contacted the PLAN vessel on bridge-to-bridge radio asking for the return of the drone. The PLAN vessel reportedly acknowledged the message, but then stopped responding and sailed away with the UUV. On Friday the 16th, the U.S. State Department issued a formal protest, or demarche, with the Chinese Department of Foreign Affairs, demanding an immediate return of the drone. At the time of this article’s publication, the Chinese government has not responded.

Purpose

Motivations behind the seizure are unclear, but tensions between the two nations have recently increased over President-Elect Donald Trump’s conversation with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in what Beijing considers a blatant disregard of the standing One-China Policy. It could also have been a quick riposte to undermine Head of Pacific Command U.S. Navy Admiral Harry Harris’ recent comments that the US is “ready to confront [China] when we must.”

Notably, the Philippines has chosen to remain silent over the incident. While traditionally a U.S. ally, the election of President Rodrigo Duterte has brought a deterioration of relations between Manila and Washington. Thanks in no small part to Duterte’s bloody prosecution of an Anti-Drug war punctuated by high civilian casualties and accusations of extra-judicial killings, a large multi-million dollar U.S aid package was just withdrawn this week – prompting the volatile President to threaten abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement. The Philippine Department of National Defense indicates they had no idea that the incident was ongoing; highlighting the enormous capability gap the Philippines has regarding Maritime Domain Awareness. The Philippine government became aware via communications from the U.S. State Department to their embassy in Washington D.C.

Coupled with Duterte’s increasingly close orbit of China following last month’s visit to Beijing, the United States could potentially find itself without bases that would ease the mission of maintaining a robust presence in the South China Sea. Recent analysis shows China has expanded militarization of their Spratly Island outposts by placing what appear to be defensive anti-aircraft and close-in weapon systems on Hughes and Gaven reefs, while fortifications have sprouted on Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi reefs; the latter group are in close proximity to other claimant outposts in the region.

Taken together, China appears to be using it’s famous “Salami-slicing” techniques to slowly ratchet up its presence and capabilities within the region without crossing any significant “bright lines” leading to a military confrontation. The UUV seizure is consistent with opportunistic interference of U. .Navy operations while striking propoganda points with regional states. Notably, the unresponsiveness of Philippines to an international incident within their EEZ tells a tale that the U.S. cannot count upon its traditional ally going forward to assist in the presence mission.

Armando J. Heredia is a civilian observer of naval affairs. He is an IT Risk and Information Security practitioner, with a background in the defense and financial services industries.  The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, any particular nation’s government or related agency.

Featured Image: Slocum Ocean Glider. (University of South Florida)

Fluid Alliances and Unexpected Consequences: Philippine UNDOF Crisis

RP-UNDOFThe recent crisis faced by Philippine Peacekeepers in the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) highlights the fluid dynamics in alliances and the unexpected consequences that have precipitated in the wake of the Syrian Civil War.

On the morning of August 28th, approximately 75 Philippine Army troops of the 7th Contingent to UNDOF were surrounded by militant forces, some later identified as Al-Nusra Front fighters, and were ordered to surrender their arms. The Anti-Government Fighters focused their siege against strategic UN positions including Al-Quinaytirah,  the only crossing over the Golan Heights. The situation was exacerbated by the earlier capture of approximately 44 UN soldiers from Fiji manning posts on the Northern sector of the ceasefire zone. The rebels attacking the Philippine positions initially sent an English-speaking Fiji soldier to relay their surrender demands.

The peacekeepers, split into two units spread across the Filipino sector of responsibility, both refused the call to disarm. A fire-fight later ensued at their positions in Ar-Ruwayhinah, located in the southern portion of the Heights.  Despite being armed with only rifles and squad weapons, the Philippine unit was highly experienced – most of the UNDOF contingent belong to the 80th Infantry Battalion – which came fresh off anti-communist combat operations in Mindoro and run through a preparatory workup before deploying in the Golan. The militants arrived in technicals armed with anti-aircraft guns and besieged UNDOF Oupost 68 for several hours before being driven off. At one point, the rebel pick-up trucks started ramming the outpost gate to overrun the defenders and subjected the troops to mortar fire.

Some of the encircled troopers were eventually relieved and withdrawn to more secure positions by a combined Irish-Filipino Mobile Reaction Force equipped with armored personnel carriers from Camp Faroar on the Syrian side of the Heights. Outpost 68 was able to walk out on their own terms after a lull in the fighting and re-consolidated at Mission HQ in  Camp Ziouani near the Israeli border. What was notable is that the Al-Assad Syrian Army fired artillery rounds during the Outpost 68 firefight to help suppress the rebel assault. This may be a result of back-channel discussions stemming from then Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro’s mission to Damascus as early as 2009, when the Manila started contributing troops to the UN mission. But equally likely is the well-established “Cooperation and Coordination” aspect of UNDOF with the warring parties, which was finely-honed when the Mission was first established in the mid-1970s.  UNDOF Command closely communicates at an operational level with both Israeli Defense Force and Assad’s Syrian Army through liaisons. Additionally, this is a strong indicator that the Assad regime is not as unstable as the popular media narrative would indicate. The ability to quickly and effectively deliver indirect fire into the Area of Separation speaks to the existence of intact and professional Syrian Army elements despite the widespread Civil War.

This is not the first time Philippine forces in UNDOF have been under fire. In 2011, approximately 21 troopers and civilian workers were taken hostage but later freed without incident, and another soldier wounded by shellfire during the same year.

The assistance of the Syrian Government during this crisis is in direct contrast to current Western foreign policy, which seeks the unconditional removal of Assad’s regime. Collectively, all the stakeholders in the localized area of the Golan recognize the greater threat that the more militant spectrum of the Syrian rebellion represents, and can cooperate when necessary to achieve the common goal of maintaining stability within the area.

The dynamics of individual Peacekeeping Missions are also subject to the aspects of operational realities and unexpected consequences on the ground.

In the Outpost 68 firefight, the Anti-Government fighters were reportedly adamant about the Philippine troops surrendering their weapons before acceding to a cease-fire, as a matter of honor. It is likely that the rebels also saw this as a means of expanding their Table of Equipment.   Equally on the same point, as well as for more practical reasons, the Philippine troops refused to turn over their weapons, most of which was newly issued and the latest in terms of ordnance available to the country’s Armed Forces. The firefight may have been inevitable from a tactical viewpoint, but the supposed demand by UNDOF Mission Commander Lt. General Iqbal Singha of India that the Filipinos surrender to ensure the Fijians’ safety by “stacking arms” prompted a call for investigation by Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Gregorio Catapang Jr. If the allegations have merit, it would be highly ironic given the UNDOF I-C’s very comments to the contingent during the October 2013 UN Day Parade that “Your job is to carry out your peacekeeping tasks and my job is to ensure your security.”

The back-channel discussions between SND Teodoro and the Assad government reflects multi-polar realpolitik. While the Philippines is generally seen as a supporter and beneficiary of US strategy and foreign policy in the Pacific, there is a small wealth of political capital that the Asian nation can use in other regions, where Filipinos are seen as a highly reliable source of skilled and unskilled labor, and generally not viewed as an enabler or facilitator of an increasingly divisive and unclear U.S. diplomatic approach.  Leveraging such capital at the right time and the right crisis can result in short-term gains without materially compromising key allies’ existing relationships nor overtly undermining their initiatives.

Another long-standing issue of concern is the inadequate force-protection capabilities of the peacekeepers themselves. In 2013, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Albert del Rosario met with UN officials to air concerns regarding relative troop strength in the Heights and to ensure that the necessary equipment for the “protection and defense of Filipino troops and other UNDOF” were procured by October of that year. The dilemma of adequately arming peacekeepers is well-known and understood, but given the circumstances of the raging Civil War, it is likely that the UN forces will continue to encounter more violent and zealous factions involved in  the turmoil, and must make sound decisions regarding practical limits of the  “Minimum Use of Force” directive.  A larger consideration must be made to enhancing force-protection measures while remaining true to the “peacekeeping” charter. This particular crisis pointed to several shortcomings; such as weapons inadequate to the higher threat level, better intelligence and monitoring of movement within the Area of Separation and a consistent Rules of Engagement  (one unit fought, the other did not) as well as contingency and scenario planning (one unit was relieved, the other had to egress independently  with no support). Otherwise the UN Peacekeeping Force will only perpetuate and not prevent conflicts, as blue-helmets are taken hostage for their political value and their equipment seized to further malicious actor goals.

As a corollary, there’s something to be said about gauging the quality of forces a nation contributes to UN Security Missions. Had it been a less experienced Philippine unit in place than the already-blooded 80th Infantry Battalion, the outcome might have been very different.  It is undoubtedly helpful that the troops had already “seen the elephant” in counter-insurgency operations when the militants started firing.

As a direct result of the deteriorating conditions in the Syrian Civil War, the Philippine Government has announced a complete withdrawal of forces until further notice to both the UNDOF and the UNMIL mission in Liberia, the latter due to the increased health risk of the Ebola outbreak. The Philippines had been contributing personnel to both missions since 2009 and 2003 respectively, and was the nation-in-command for UNDOF in 2012. This doesn’t bode well for many UN security missions – if nations start to withdraw because the global organization cannot effectively manage the numerous efforts underway (at last count 17 Missions world-wide and involving over 100,000 personnel), the spread of a regional crisis progressively engulfing larger portions of the globe could become a grim reality.

Juramentado is the pseudonym for Armando J. Heredia, a civilian observer of naval affairs. He is an IT Risk and Information Security practitioner, with a background in the defense and financial services industries. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, any particular nation’s government or related agency.

Future Rethinking Seminar: Current National Security Challenges & Opportunities

April 17, 2014

ADM James Stavridis, USN (ret)

Dean, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Current National Security Challenges & Opportunities
Marriott Residence Inn, Pentagon City 6:00-8:00PM
Admiral James Stavridis, (USN, ret) is currently the Dean of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.  While on active duty, he led the NATO Alliance in global operations from 2009 to 2013 as Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Previously, he served as Commander of U.S. Southern Command from 2006-2009, with responsibility for all military operations in South and Central America. He also served as the Senior Military Assistant to the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Navy, and was the first Commander of the Navy’s “Deep Blue” strategic and tactical think tank after the 9/11 Pentagon attacks. a graduate of the Fletcher School’s PhD program, Dr. Stavridis has published five books and over one hundred articles. His current focus is on innovation, strategic communcations and planning, and creating security through international, interagency, and public/private partnerships in the turbulent 21st century. (Biography)
For the Rethinking Seminar, Dean Stavridis will be discussing topics related to:
     • National Security Challenges potentially including:
          o Terrorism / extremism
          o Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
          o Rogue nations
          o Regional hegemons (e.g. China/Iran) and the emergence of anti-access/area-denial capabilities, and
          o The growing threat to net centric warfare C3/ISR systems
     • National Strategic Opportunities including:
          o Phase 0 activities
          o U.S. presence in the Mid East and Western Pacific
          o Joint and international training / exercises
          o Partnering, building relations and military to military contacts
          o Military, diplomatic, economic (foreign internal defense) support to host nations
Register Online for this event.
REGISTRATION TIPS: 
 
Forgotten User ID: If you are already a registered user but have forgotten your User ID (which may be your email address), contact the Rethinking Coordinator.
Forgotten Password: The online system will provide you a new password should you require it from a link on the Registration page.
New Users: If you did not receive this message directly, you can register for an event by first establishing a short profile at www.jhuapl.edu/rethinking.  You will also automatically receive announcements about future events.
SEMINAR SPECIFICS:
Cost: None for the Seminar
Location: Marriott Residence Inn, 550 Army-Navy Drive, Arlington, VA (Pentagon City) Directions, map and parking info.
Supper: A sandwich buffet is available 30 minutes before each Seminar on a first-come basis.

 

PAST SEMINARS:

Video, audio, presentation and bulletized note files of past seminars remain available on the Rethinking Seminar Series website www.jhuapl.edu/rethinking under Video Archives (for the current series), Past Series, and Speakers tabs.  Videos from recent Rethinking Series years are also available on the JHU/APL YouTube Channel Rethinking Playlist.

Future Rethinking Seminar – State of Global Terrorism: Potential US Counterterrorism Policy and Strategy

Thursday, March 27th 2014
Professor Bruce Hoffman
Georgetown University
State of Global Terrorism:

Potential US Counterterrorism Policy and Strategy

Marriott Residence Inn, Pentagon City
6:00-8:00pm

Register Online for this event.

Professor Bruce Hoffman has been studying terrorism and insurgency for more than thirty years. He is currently Director of the Center for Security Studies, Director of the Security Studies Program, and a tenured professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. Professor Hoffman previously held the Corporate Chair in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency at the RAND Corporation and several other leadership positions within RAND. Between 2004 and 2006 Professor Hoffman was Scholar-in-Residence for Counterterrorism at the Central Intelligence Agency. During 2004 and 2005 he was also an adviser on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency to the:

  • Office of National Security Affairs, Coalition Provisional Authority, Baghdad, Iraq;
  • Strategy, Plans, and Analysis Office at Multi-National Forces-Iraq HQ, Baghdad; and
  • Iraq Study Group.

Professor Hoffman is also a member of the National Security Preparedness Group, the successor to the 9/11 Commission. (Biography)

For the Rethinking Seminar talk, Professor Hoffman will discuss the state of global terrorism today and what US counterterrorism policy/strategy should be going forward. His talk will include topics such as:

  • Al Qaeda (AQ), its history, its current status,
  • How AQ has morphed from a global entity with consolidated Command and Control into many more regionally focused groups,
  • Whether those regional groups are more concerned with local issues and actions rather than attacking the “far enemy” a.k.a. the U.S. and the West, and
  • The implications of these and other issues for US counterterrorism policy/strategy, particularly in a declining national security budget environment.
Register Online for this event.
REGISTRATION TIPS: 
 
Forgotten User ID: If you are already a registered user but have forgotten your User ID (which may be your email address), contact the Rethinking Coordinator.
Forgotten Password: The online system will provide you a new password should you require it from a link on the Registration page.
New Users: If you did not receive this message directly, you can register for an event by first establishing a short profile at www.jhuapl.edu/rethinking.  You will also automatically receive announcements about future events.
SEMINAR SPECIFICS:
Cost: None for the Seminar
Location: Marriott Residence Inn, 550 Army-Navy Drive, Arlington, VA (Pentagon City) Directions, map and parking info.
Supper: A sandwich buffet is available 30 minutes before each Seminar on a first-come basis.

 

PAST SEMINARS:
Video, audio, presentation and bulletized note files of past seminars remain available on the Rethinking Seminar Series website www.jhuapl.edu/rethinking under Video Archives (for the current series), Past Series, and Speakers tabs.  Videos from recent Rethinking Series years are also available on the JHU/APL YouTube Channel Rethinking Playlist.