Adam Smith Would Oppose the Jones Act

By Colin Grabow

Earlier this year, Michael D. Purzycki argued—as others have before him—that the writings of Adam Smith bolster the case for maintaining the Jones Act to address U.S. national security needs. But notions that a law roundly rejected by economists across the ideological spectrum would be embraced by one of history’s great economic thinkers should be met with considerable skepticism. To the extent the Jones Act provides any benefits to the country’s defense, it does so in grossly inefficient fashion that could be better accomplished through alternative means. It is more likely that Smith would view the law as a protectionist relic that imposes a heavy economic burden while undermining the country’s maritime industry and national security.

Passed in 1920, the Jones Act restricts the domestic waterborne transport of goods to vessels that are U.S.-flagged, U.S.-owned, U.S.-crewed, and U.S.-built. These restrictions were ostensibly put in place to help provide the United States with shipyards, U.S.-controlled ships, and a pool of mariners that can be relied upon for auxiliary sealift support in time of war.

The problem is that this approach does not work. U.S. commercial shipbuilding is small and uncompetitive, the Jones Act oceangoing fleet is in a state of perpetual decline, and there is a documented shortage of mariners to meet national security needs. The Jones Act is a clear failure and should be replaced with a more effective and efficient policy.

The Sad State of Domestic Shipbuilding

The Jones Act’s most unusual and self-defeating component is its U.S.-built requirement. When the United States first adopted shipping protectionism in 1789—including restricting the U.S. flag registry to vessels constructed in the United States—U.S. shipbuilders were some of the world’s best. Sadly, this is no longer the case—and has not been since vessels of wood and sail gave way to iron and steam.

By the late 1800s, U.S.-built ships were estimated to be 25-35 percent more expensive than those constructed in British shipyards, with a similar estimate made in 1922. By the 1960s, U.S. shipbuilding costs were double those of leading international yards, while by the 1990s they were three times higher. Ensconced behind its protective Jones Act wall, U.S. commercial shipbuilding’s competitiveness has now deteriorated to the point that a U.S.-built ship is estimated to cost four to five times as much as one constructed abroad.

Unsurprisingly, demand for U.S.-built merchant ships has been relegated to the increasingly diminutive and captive domestic Jones Act market. Since 2000, deliveries of oceangoing cargo ships from U.S. shipyards have averaged just three per year. Last year American shipyards produced zero. The few ships that are delivered, meanwhile, are highly dependent on foreign ship designs and components, shattering any notions that the Jones Act frees the United States of foreign reliance for its commercial shipbuilding needs.

Jones Act protectionism is complicit in the industry’s diminished state. A complete shielding from the competitive pressures of global shipyards as well as the limited scale and reduced specialization from building for a small domestic market makes its lack of competitiveness a foregone conclusion. Put differently, U.S. shipbuilding inferiority is baked into the Jones Act cake.

That a small handful of larger shipyards still exist is owed far more to taxpayer expenditures than commercial Jones Act shipbuilding. As a 2021 U.S. Maritime Administration report notes, 14 of 15 large deep-draft vessels delivered the previous year were for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. Nearly 80 percent of U.S. private shipbuilding and repair industry revenue in 2019 came from the U.S. military.

It is unclear how much benefit, however, even this limited commercial shipbuilding offers U.S. warfighting capabilities given the lengthy, often delayed construction timelines of Jones Act ships. The last ten Jones Act-compliant tankers delivered required an average of approximately 17 months to build while the last ten containerships took 30. The small remaining Jones Act shipyard base is wholly inadequate to support Defense Department requirements during any large-scale, enduring conflicts, and any new-build cargo ships built could well arrive after the fighting has already ceased.

Ships and Mariners in Decline

Though the U.S.-built requirement’s benefits are unclear, its costs to the U.S. fleet are obvious. Simply put, forcing Americans to pay dramatically higher prices for new ships means fewer of them. As a 1965 interagency maritime task force report noted, requiring the purchase of new vessels from U.S. shipyards at double the cost of those purchased by foreign ship operators “seriously impedes the economic growth of the U.S. fleet.” That was written nearly 60 years ago. Today one must replace “double” with “quadruple” or “quintuple”.

In large part due to the burden of such high capital costs, the Jones Act ships are principally employed where no other transportation option exists. The nation’s 23 Jones Act containerships almost exclusively ply the non-contiguous trades, while tankers are generally employed serving those parts of the countries that are either pipeline constrained or lack them entirely.

But even serving the non-contiguous trades is no guarantee that actual ships will be used. Of the 13 vessels engaged in liner service to Puerto Rico, only five are self-propelled ships (one of which was built in Poland) with the remainder consisting of cheaper oceangoing barges. That the major Jones Act shipping firm Crowley uses two ships and four barges for its Jones Act service to Puerto Rico, whereas in its unconstrained Caribbean international routes solely employs self-propelled vessels, seems a clear indication of high capital costs discouraging the use of proper ships. Oceangoing tugboats and barges require fewer American mariners, reducing operational expenses, but also having the perverse effect of obviating the qualifications necessary for auxiliary sealift employment.

From 257 ships as recently as 1980, the fleet of Jones Act-compliant oceangoing merchant ships has declined to just 93 today. For the world’s largest economy, this shrunken fleet stands in stark contrast to the nearly 54,000 ships in operation globally.

Jones Act ships are not just few in number but also kept in service far longer than global shipping fleet standards due to sky-high replacement costs: the last 15 Jones Act ships scrapped or removed from the fleet had an average age of nearly 43 years, far beyond that commonly found in commercial shipping. Notably, commercial ships participating in the Maritime Security Program to provide military sealift cannot be accepted beyond 15 years of age. In a perverse twist of national security, meanwhile, aging Jones Act ships are not only of debatable military utility, but generate significant repair and maintenance work for China’s state-owned shipyards.

Unsurprisingly, a declining fleet of ships (with unnaturally long lives of increasing decrepitude) has had a detrimental impact on mariner numbers. In fact, a 2017 government report concluded that the United States faced a deficit of 1,839 mariners with the needed credentials to conduct concurrent operations of the U.S. commercial fleet and a sustained sealift operation. In 2019, the former U.S. Maritime Administrator Mark Buzby noted that making up this shortfall would require an additional 45 ships in the U.S. fleet. Thanks to the damaging effects of the Jones Act, however, the fleet has since declined by 6 hulls.

Given the Jones Act fleet’s depleted and deteriorated state, it is unsurprising that its ships play only a de minimis role in sealift planning assumptions. A 2020 U.S. Maritime Administration report, for example, referenced privately-owned U.S.-flag ships engaged in international trade—i.e. the 85 non-Jones Act U.S.-flag ships—and the mariners they employ as “primary resources” to serve as an auxiliary force in time of war or national emergency, while no mention of the domestic Jones Act fleet was made in this context. This stance appeared to be confirmed by the head of the U.S. Transportation Command, who testified last year that wargaming has revealed Jones Act ships to be unlikely candidates for meeting national defense needs.

As two RAND Corporation analysts wrote last year, beyond 60 foreign-built ships in the U.S.-flag non-Jones Act fleet that receive Maritime Security Program stipends, there are “very few, if any, additional U.S.-flagged vessels, certainly not a sufficient number of the type required to move large amounts of military cargo.”

Whether measured in terms of shipbuilding, ships, or mariners, the Jones Act has failed to meet U.S. national security needs. Meant to promote the fortunes of both the domestic shipping and shipbuilding industries, it has succeeded only in making both vastly uncompetitive. Given this bleak record, it is unclear why a man of Smith’s caliber would support such a law.

Failure of the Navigation Acts

That Smith is viewed by some as a likely Jones Act supporter owes to the economist’s endorsement of Great Britain’s own protectionist Navigation Acts. His support, however, is perhaps due to Smith simply not living long enough to fully appreciate their shortcomings. In 1847 a pronounced drop in trade led to the laws being suspended, and that same year the House of Commons conducted an inquiry into the Navigations Acts. After a select committee issued several reports documenting the damage inflicted by these protectionist laws, they were repealed in 1849.

Far from visiting harm on the British maritime industry, the Navigation Acts’ repeal coincided with a great flourishing. As a Library of Congress report points out:

In just over a decade, there was a 52.2 percent increase in tonnage owned, and the yearly average of British tonnage which entered and cleared from British ports increased by 102.7 percent…An overwhelming, demand for shipping caused the price of vessels to rise and British shipyards were kept busy.

The United States, meanwhile, saw its own shipping and shipbuilding industries decline as the country clung to shipping protectionism. In his 1876 book History of Merchant Shipping and Ancient Commerce, British author William Schaw Lindsay pointed out these contrasting fortunes:

…I cannot refrain from directing the attention of my readers to the fact that the nations which have adopted a liberal policy have made much the greatest advance; while the United States of America, to which I have so frequently referred, have, with all their natural advantages, materially retrograded as a maritime people.

This retrogression, aided and abetted by the Jones Act, continues today. U.S maritime policy, both for the country’s economic prosperity and national security, is crying out for a dramatic overhaul.

Overhaul of Maritime Policy Sorely Needed

One obvious corrective would be to dispense with the Jones Act’s U.S.-built requirement—at the very least for oceangoing ships. Accepting a smaller and less modern fleet (and the resulting stultifying impact on domestic trade) in exchange for the construction of a tiny number of commercial ships highly reliant on foreign inputs is a terrible bargain. Instead, policy should be dramatically revised by scrapping Jones Act restrictions in favor of a more purposeful measure such as targeted, direct subsidies. This is an approach straight out of Adam Smith’s playbook. As he wrote in The Wealth of Nations:

If any particular manufacture was necessary, indeed, for the defense of the society, it might not always be prudent to depend upon our neighbors for the supply; and if such manufacture could not otherwise be supported at home, it might not be unreasonable that all the other branches of industry should be taxed in order to support it.

Using taxpayer-funded subsidies to assure the specific types of ships, mariners, and maritime infrastructure required in times of war would offer at least two key advantages over Jones Act protectionism. 

Transparency: The Jones Act is an implicit subsidy whose vast cost of provision is challenging to derive with any great precision. Indeed, the federal government has not even attempted to calculate its economic damage since 2002. Also unknown are the law’s benefits, with the number of ships, mariners, and shipbuilding that would exist in the law’s absence rendered a mere guessing game. Such opacity may serve the small orbit of maritime special interests that profit from Jones Act protectionism but renders a cost-benefit analysis a highly fraught if not impossible task.

Fairness: To the marginal extent the Jones Act provides ships, mariners, and shipbuilding, the burden of doing so is borne in vastly disproportionate fashion by the residents of Alaska, Guam, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. While comprising less than 2 percent of the U.S. population, these non-contiguous states and territories account for more than half of ships employed in Jones Act trades. This inequity is further compounded by the fact that residents of Guam and Puerto Rico have no voting representation in Congress and must bear the burden of high shipping costs while suffering from some of the country’s highest poverty rates. If the Jones Act is truly rooted in national security, then it should be paid for by a broad swath of Americans rather than a small percentage based on geographical happenstance.

Perhaps most importantly, subsidies would be far more effective than current policy given the Jones Act’s demonstrable failures. Handcuffing domestic vessel operators to a wildly uncompetitive shipbuilding industry has proven a formula for maritime mediocrity.

A system of direct subsidies could eliminate such dynamics and link expenditures to discrete goals. If more ships are needed, fund ships. If more mariners are needed, subsidize their hiring or fund an expansion of the fleet for increased billets (which could perhaps be done in conjunction with the establishment of a robust Merchant Marine Reserve to assure their availability and proper training).

National security should be paid for with transparent spending linked to clear goals, not K Street-funded protectionism with opaque costs.

None of this is pie in the sky thinking. The Maritime Security Program provides a $5.3 million stipend to 60 vessels in exchange for their availability for Department of Defense use in time of war or national emergency. That means not just ships but billets for mariners. If more ships and mariners are needed, why not simply expand the program (ideally paired with reforms such as a bid system to promote cost containment)?

Aiding shipyards, meanwhile, is a trickier proposition. While the use of subsidies to cover the difference between U.S. and foreign shipbuilding costs would be preferable to the Jones Act’s U.S.-built requirement, such an approach should be regarded warily given past experience. One alternative might be a long-term shipbuilding program to replace aging vessels in the Ready Reserve Force and Military Sealift Command fleets. Such a recapitalization effort could be opened to shipyards from NATO and Major Non-NATO Allies to promote competition but with a reasonable price preference to U.S. yards to level the playing field. Subsidies linked to the realization of certain performance metrics might be another alternative. While the exact approach can and should be debated, the shortcomings of current policy demand new and innovative thinking.

There is much that Jones Act supporters and critics disagree on, including how Adam Smith may have thought about the law in the 21st century. But there should be a clear consensus that the military must be provided with the tools it requires to accomplish its mission—including sealift. These needs should be met in the most effective and efficient manner possible. As ample evidence shows, the Jones Act is not it. After more than a hundred years of maritime failure it is time for a new approach, one that Adam Smith himself would have been willing to lend his support to.

Colin Grabow is a research fellow at the Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies.

Featured Image: Tanjong Pagar Container Terminal seen from Asia Square, Singapore. (Photo by Nicolas Lannuzel via Wikimedia Commons)

Sea Control 382 – Russian NOTAM Use Near Norway with Dr. Kristian Åtland

By Jared Samuelson

Dr. Kristian Åtland joins Sea Control to discuss how Russia has used Notices to Air Missions (NOTAMs) as a messaging device in the waters near Norway.

Dr. Åtland is a Senior Research Fellow with the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), located at Kjeller, Norway. He holds a PhD in political science from the University of Tromsø and a MA degree in Russian studies from the University of Oslo.

Sea Control 382 – Russian NOTAM Use Near Norway with Dr. Kristian Åtland

Links

1. “Military Muscle-Flexing as Interstate Communication: Russian NOTAM Warnings off the Coast of Norway, 2015-2021,” by Kristian Åtland, Thomas Nilsen, and Torbjørn Pedersen, Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, June 14, 2022.
2. Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI)

Jared Samuelson is Co-Host and Executive Producer of the Sea Control. Contact him at [email protected].

This episode was edited and produced by David Suchyta.

Sea Control 381 – How to Win Friends & Influence Shipbuilding with Eric Hovey

By Jared Samuelson

Eric Hovey, fresh off a tour at Naval Sea Systems Command, joins the podcast to discuss his recent article on the U.S. amphibious shipbuilding ecosystem.

Eric Hovey is a Marine Corps Intelligence Officer and Defense Acquisition Corps Member. He previously served as Marine Liaison to the Amphibious Assault and Connectors Program Office (PMS 317) within Naval Sea Systems Command and is currently a student at the Joint Military Attaché School in Washington, DC.

Sea Control 381 – How to Win Friends & Influence Shipbuilding with Eric Hovey

Links

1. “How to Win Friends and Influence Shipbuilding. Marine Corps modernization and the amphibious Navy,” by Maj Eric S. Hovey, Marine Corps Gazette, June 2022. 

Jared Samuelson is Co-Host and Executive Producer of the Sea Control podcast. Contact him at [email protected].

This episode was edited and produced by Nathan Miller.

The CNO’s Navigation Plan for 2022: A Critique

This piece was originally published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and is republished with permission. Read it in its original form here.

By Anthony H. Cordesman

There should be a clear difference between efforts to provide unclassified documents that explain and justify U.S. military forces and issuing official reports that are little more than public relations exercises. The U.S. faces major security challenges and the annual cost of U.S. defense is over $760 billion, even if one ignores the cost of nuclear weapons, the Veterans Administration, related activities of the State Department and other agencies, and substantial additional intelligence activity.

The effort to shape U.S. forces and strategy must deal with very real threats. They include a Russia that has invaded the Ukraine, a China that is actively seeking to challenge the U.S. in military and economic power, and regional threats like Iran and North Korea. The U.S. must cope with emerging and disruptive technologies that constantly alter the nature of military forces in unexpected ways, support America’s strategic partners on a global level, and deal with near collapse of many arms control efforts and major increases in Russian and Chinese nuclear and long-range strike programs.

Far too often, however, the Department of Defense issues documents that are little more than sales pitches – filled with slogans, and that are an awkward cross between a shipping list that borders on being a child’s letter to Santa Claus and a used car commercial.

The CNO’s Navigation Plan for 2022 is a case in point. In fairness, it does highlight a long list of important points about the threat, and the need to reshape U.S. naval forces, but it comes far too close to burying them in overall and hype. It fails to meaningfully address and justify the cost of the U.S. Navy, to provide any clear picture of the threat, to address the need to cooperate with key U.S. allies, and to provide a clear program for shaping the Navy’s future.

It is scarcely unique in failing to provide a clear and meaningful plan. The defense budget requests talk about being strategic documents, but almost all of their contents are shopping lists for individual military services. U.S. strategy documents have become little more than long lists of broad goals and wish lists with no actual plan, program, or budget.

The U.S. no longer issues a meaningful Five-Year Defense Plan (FDYP) with force levels and costs, and no real “net assessments” have been issued at the unclassified level. Aside from an annual report on Chinese Military Power, there are no documents that summarizes the threat, and reports on Russian and Iranian military power have not been updated for years. The U.S. State Department has finally killed a public report on World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers that once served as a reference for much of the world’s media and military analysis – one that it had already rendered confusing and difficult to use.

Still, the Navigation Plan for 2022 represents the kind of empty hard sell that no one needs and highlights the contrast between U.S. defense papers and the far more detailed and useful work done by some other countries – with Japan’s Defense of Japan 2022 being a prime example. The relentless hard sell is bad enough, and so is the tendency to deal with every possible issue by setting a goal that is little more than a slogan with no clear plan or priority for tangible action.

That said, the substantive problems in the Navigation Plan for 2022 go far deeper:

1. Strategy, Predictability and “the Five-Year Rule”

The Navigation Plan talks about planning for 2045 as if the needs for U.S. forces this far in the future were predictable. Like the Quadrennial Defense Reviews (QDRs) issues in the past, it tries to look too far into the future in grand strategic terms without addressing even near-term future and force costs in specific terms. It does so without recognizing the need to regularly update and revise a fully defined strategy for the coming year and a future period that was reasonably predictable.

In the real world, 2045 is a long, long way in the future, given global instability and the uncertain priorities for U.S. forces. In practice, we haven’t been able to do a particularly good job of throwing a FYDP together since the end of the Cold War. Figure One shows the turning points in U.S. force levels between 1950 and 2021. It is clear from this histogram that our history of military commitments since 1945 has had so many sudden shifts that it proves that it is barely possible to set goals for planning a workable strategy even five years into the future.

Figure One would also portray far more key points of uncertainty if it included a histogram of nuclear forces levels, strategic priorities, and the role of arms control. The same would be true if it included a histogram of the major shifts in China’s posture and goals and military spending, if it included a chart of the shifting impact of the past versions of new and disruptive technologies. And, if one needs a more tangible example of a massive sudden surge in military spending that had only minimal ties to sea power, Figure Two shows the pattern of unpredictable strategic commitments and military defense spending for the war in Afghanistan.

In practice, even efforts to draft a realistic Five-Year Defense Plan means constantly adjusting the past year’s FYDP on a rolling annual basis and taking account of civil needs and the steady growth of civil entitlement spending.

2. Assumptions about Future Spending and Resources

No one can credibly define a strategy without a force plan and clear assumptions about resources. Figure Three highlights the past levels of sudden change and uncertainty in U.S. forces and budgets and looks at some key budget trends. It warns that U.S. spending levels have steadily dropped as a percent of GDP since the height of the Korean War, and that a case for major increases in the quality of U.S. forces requires detailed justification.

Figure Four warns that current budget projections call for just the opposite trend, and it does not take account of the major new levels of civil spending that have just been enacted by the U.S. Congress. The assumptions the Congressional Budget Office is making about cuts in the future U.S. defense effort call for cuts in defense spending from 3.6% of GDP in 1995, and 3.2% in 2022 to only 2.2% in 2030. In contrast, they call for major increases in Social Security and Major Health Care Programs, and Net Interest.

Long before the signing of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Congressional Budget Office projected major cuts in the level of national defense efforts in order to meet civil needs. It sent a clear warning about the uncertain relevance of any U.S. defense strategy based on broad, undefined goals and priorities, and that focused on desired U.S. defense and forces without any references to budget needs and constraints.

It highlights the fact that there was a reason for including the Future Year Defense Plan (FYDP) in past statements by the Secretary of Defense and in the defense budget request – even if recent projections have rolled the FDYP forward without any clear ties to future force levels and strategy.

However, the Navigation Plan calls for more with almost no detail or justification. It states that,

“To maintain our advantage at sea, America needs a larger and more capable Navy. Faced with peer competitors and emerging disruptive technologies, the Navy needs to become more agile in developing and delivering our future force. Above all, our naval forces must be combat credible — measured by our ability to deliver lethal effects in contested and persistently surveilled battlespaces.” (p. 7)

This need for more naval spending may well be true, but the same may be true of the other services and the Congress has already made major increases in long term federal spending. A Navigation Plan with no funding plan at best follows the Oliver Twist approach to asking for porridge. It simply asks for more.

3. Buzzwords and Generic Goals are not a Strategy

The sections in the Navigation Plan that cover “Force Design Imperatives” and “Force Design 2045” dodge around these issues by citing six “imperatives” that are so broad that they call for advances in every area that is the focus of current force plans.

The Plan lists a “Force Design 2045” and a “need for a more capable, larger Navy” (pp 9-10) which do not seem to track with the options in U.S. shipbuilding plans reported by the Congressional Research Service. The plan refers to rapidly evolving competitors, but then sets the following broad goals for 2040 – some two decades in the rapidly evolving future: “In the 2040s and beyond, we envision this hybrid fleet to require more than 350 manned ships, about 150 large, unmanned surface and subsurface platforms, and approximately 3,000 aircraft.”

It then goes on to list undefined “capacity goals” for ships by type or class but does so without advancing specific goals for given time periods, does not clearly relate them to the previous force goals for manned and unmanned ships, and justifies each set of such goals largely in terms of strategic buzzwords.

Resources are only addressed to the extent that the section on “Navigation Plan Priorities” states that,

“To simultaneously modernize and grow the capacity of our fleet, the Navy will require 3- 5% sustained budget growth above actual inflation. Short of that, we will prioritize modernization over preserving force structure. This will decrease the size of the fleet until we can deploy smaller, more cost-effective, and more autonomous force packages at scale.”

The following section on the Navigation Plan Implementation Framework (NIF) then sets 18 generic priority areas which are only specific in terms of recent and short-term actions, and whose main message seems to be that the Navy’s planning effort has been reorganized, but there as yet is no real strategy or plan.

It might well make sense to try to look as far ahead as 2045 if this was the final section of a strategy based on an analysis of short-, medium-, and long-term issues, priorities, and diminishing levels of confidence – focusing on specifics in the near term and trying to identify key issues for the future. Right now, however, we can’t even assess how a key threat like Russia will behave even three years into the future or predict our strategic path with China.

4. Integrated Strategies, AI, Cyber, Space, and JADO

The document talks about integrated strategies, and all domain operations and warfare. These presumably include key space, AI, and programs, and “integrated” implies an effort to integrate the Navy’s efforts with those of the other services, the needs of the major national and regional commands, and the forces of our strategic partners. However, the Navigation Plan does not address any of the practical priorities and needs involved. It does not have any plan for how the Navy can “integrate” and what this actually means for other U.S. services, and strategic partners. In fact, it states that,

“America cannot cede the competition for influence. This is a uniquely naval mission. A combat-credible U.S. Navy—forward-deployed and integrated with all elements of national power—remains our Nation’s most potent, flexible, and versatile instrument of military influence. As the United States responds to the security environment through integrated deterrence, our Navy must deploy forward and campaign with a ready, capable, combat-credible fleet” (p.5)

Its approach to integration is indicated by other statements that single out the Navy without referring to any other service like: “The Nation cannot afford to cede influence to China or Russia. Nor can it afford to lose combat credibility. We must deliver a Navy designed to deter conflict and help win our Nation’s wars as we maintain a global posture to assure our prosperity. Our national security depends on it.” (p. 12)

5. AI, Cyber, Space, and JADO

The Navigation Plan does list many of the new technologies that are already reshaping military forces throughout the world, but it does not address the fact that most now have relatively short-term windows of predictability, and that some clear path is needed to coordinating U.S. and partner military efforts in new and exploratory ways. It does not address the real-world challenges caused by the fact that major breakthroughs are unpredictable by definition, and that the most strategy can do is focus on key areas of change, describe clear plans for action where immediate priorities exist, and single out the areas for future focus – the technologies NATO calls “disruptive.”

Once again, when the Navigation Plan does mention specific area of technology, it does so largely in terms of broad goals and buzzwords. (e.g. pp. 18-19)

As is noted throughout this critique, strategy documents that set broad goals for doing everything in unstated ways with unstated timelines and unstated implementation plans have little practical value. Good intentions alone do not address real world needs and priorities.

6. Net Assessment and the Threats the US and its Partners Must Face

The section on the “Security Environment” (pp. 4-5) highlights key issues, but in a way so lacking in detail and justification that it reads more like propaganda than a plan. There is no real net assessment of U.S. and partner capabilities to deal with present and project threats, and the ability – or lack of it – to deal with the probable changes in Chinese, Russian, and other hostile forces.

It does not summarize the ongoing shifts in Chinese sea, air, and missile power that are making a major threat, identify the problems emerging in the Persian/Arab Gulf and North Korea, the growing level of Russian and Chinese military cooperation in the Pacific, and the broader changes in Russian and Chinese nuclear and long-range strike forces. If anything, it implies that the Navy and SSBNs are the only major solution to modernizing “our nuclear command, control, and communications systems to ensure the United States can deter nuclear coercion and nuclear employment in any scenario (p. 6).”

Here, the new Japanese defense white paper – Defense of Japan 2022 – provides examples of short and long-term trend analysis that highlights the growth of key threats and the current military balance in summary terms as well as major future trends. It centers proposed spending and force development around the key challenges Japan’s forces must respond to and shows that a well-structured strategy paper can do so in an unclassified form that can help win the support of the public, legislators, and strategic partners.

7. Focusing on Strategic Partners and Other States

The Navigation Plan is US-centric to the point of neo-isolationism. It touches upon on strategic partnerships, but it does not single any out as part of a common effort and strategy, and skims over the need to focus on the need to reinforce regional influence on a political and civil level as well as a military one – which is a key aspect of successful sea power.

It ignores the need to reorganize our Atlantic and Mediterranean posture in view of the Ukraine war, and the need to work with NATO and other European allies in creating interoperable and effective forces at a time major efforts are needed to revitalize many NATO navies and work with Britain to shape its naval role in a post-EU world.

Similarly, it largely ignores the need to link the US naval (and joint) posture to our Pacific, Indian Ocean, and MENA strategic partners which still has at least equal priority. Once again the contrast with Japanese defense white paper – which does this – is striking.

The financial value of close cooperation with our partners is illustrated by Figure Five. Partners are not only critical in terms of war fighting and deterrence. They can play a key potential rule in meeting future spending and economic challenges.

Anthony H. Cordesman is the Emeritus Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He has previously served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, the State Department, and the Department of Energy. During his time at CSIS, Dr. Cordesman previously held the Burke Chair in Strategy. He is the author of more than 50 books, including a four-volume series on the lessons of modern war.

Featured Image: PACIFIC OCEAN (August 7, 2022) Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) sails alongside Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) during an air power demonstration. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jeffrey F. Yale)

Fostering the Discussion on Securing the Seas.