By Tracy MacSephney
This fictional short story intends to use ‘useful fiction’1 to imagine the 2050 workforce and the impact of autonomous systems on maritime operations. The short story is set in a ‘Fragmented’2 2050 and draws on open-source research and media to shape the story. It does not intend to predict the future.
Future Worlds: Fragmentation
“States, corporations, megacities and other non-state actors, including organised criminal and dissident groups, compete for power. Cooperation is rare and only sought when there is a benefit to further an actor’s interests.” –Global Strategic Trends, 2018
Somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean
2050
I check the roster one last time: Ensign Parker. I double-click on their image to add it to the facial recognition software which will project a warning in my HUD3 when it triggers. I also add a hologram projection with their name on it, which hovers over my head, so they can have something to look for. I call up the arrival details on my HUD: on time, shock horror.
“Bet it’s not on time when I’m trying to leave tonight,” I grumble to no one in particular.
I try to think back to my first day on the Alliance’s4 FOBS5 DREADNOUGHT6 and the essentials I need to get across to Parker before I leave but the troop transport lands and in no time the arrivals/departure hall starts to fill. Before I’ve even had a chance to look, the HUD idents Parker who is scanning the holograms.
“Sims7 don’t prepare you for this part, do they?” I ask as I step in front of Parker before they’ve had a chance to spot me.
“They sure don’t, and I’m not sure what I expected either,” Parker confesses looking out across the flattop and beyond to the endless sea and sky in all directions.
“Get a good look Parker; the next time you see this part of the ship, you’ll be heading back home,” I pause while they look around. “I’m Phoenix, welcome aboard. Come on Parker, we’ve got time to keep and miles to go before you sleep.”
They smile like an excited puppy. If I remember correctly, it’ll be days, maybe weeks, before it wears off.
Most of the other arrivals have already departed the hall so we have one of the four 20-person elevators to ourselves.
“When you’re trying to get around the ship always head to deck seven first–” I start but Parker interrupts, “–the Promenade, and navigate from there.” I chuckle and try to remember what it’s like to be keen and eager.
“I’m going to assume you’ve completed all the sims, so why don’t you simply ask me the questions you really want answers to, the stuff you can’t get from the sims or pull up on the HUD?” I offer.
“That would be great, thanks,” Parker distractedly responds.
By now we are on the Promenade, making our way to the travelator that runs in 40m sections up and down the length of the ship. Parker’s doing a good impression of one of those old-fashioned bobble head toys taking in the Promenade as we progress.
“We’re Top Gun8 so we only use callsigns out here. What’s yours?”
“Oh, uh, well you see I, um,” Parker mumbles and I chuckle.
“Ah, so you don’t want to use the one they gave you during training?” I recall my own which will never be uttered again. “Let me guess, something like ‘Nosey’?”
“Ah, yeah, not very original or cool like yours.”
“Well, we better think fast; once I program it in, that will be it.”
“On account of the Thunderbirds, and me being Parker and all, I thought ‘Guardian’ would be cool,” Parker hoped.
“No can do, we already have a Guardian,” I pause while I try to help the kid out, “Thunderbirds huh? Well, how about Thunder?”
“Perfect!” Parker’s relief is evident.
“Great, so we’ll head over to your cabin first, your gear should be there already, then we can grab scran9 before we head over to the office. It’s a good idea to orientate yourself so that you’re not reliant on the HUD all the time, you never know,” I offer as a warning, but equally true is if the HUD goes down, the ship is down and we’re a massive sitting duck. I don’t dwell on that thought for long and Parker’s silence suggests they know that too.
“Let’s get you synced to the ship,” I change the subject back to more practical issues as we progress along the travelators to the accommodation area.
I call up Parker’s credentials, add Thunder as their callsign, and send the uplink code.
“Got it,” Parker inputs the code and is instantly connected to the ship. I can see their HUD throwing up numerous messages.
“Ignore all messages today, except any flashing red,” I advise before they become overwhelmed with the information overload. “You’ll soon adjust to which messages you need to pay attention to, and you’ve got tomorrow to acclimatize and sort your filters out before you start your first shift.”
“Noted, thanks. Even Fallon10 wasn’t this busy with comms traffic,” Parker adjusts the settings to tone down all but flashing red messages. “Had the quietest 48 hours travelling here not being synced to a station or ship.”
“Oh, I know, that is one thing I’m looking forward to tonight,” I say, although I’m not quite sure that is true as I have no idea what I’m going to do with myself for 48 hours.
“Where are you off to?”
“Back to Fallon as an instructor for a couple of years and then no doubt back here on promotion as one of the Ops directors, although that all depends on ASI11. I’ll probably be in Fallon when we know more so who knows.”
“You must be the best here if you’ve been selected as an instructor,” Parker says in awe, “I’m sorry I’ll miss the opportunity to learn from you.”
“And you’re one of the best to make it to DREADNOUGHT so no doubt you’ll be an instructor one day too, just focus on one mission at a time,” I say, which is just about the best advice I can give at this stage.
Just as we turn down the passageway to their cabin a flashing red message appears. In an instant everyone is moving purposefully around the ship heading to their designated areas.
“Change of plan, we’re heading to the office now,” I change direction and walk quickly, all while thinking officers never run. “Thunder, you’re about to get a chance to fly with me, let’s go!”
“Awesome,” Parker falls in step as we head to the office12, and I message ahead that Thunder will need a cubicle prepared.
By the time we arrive at the office, all those already on shift are engaged in battle with an airborne swarm attack. It’s clearly AGI only so no match for the Top Gun team, although the swarm is huge. I slip into a spare cubicle and signal for Thunder to take the cubicle next to me. The systems are already boosted and the AGI has our Interceptors hovering at the border of our defensive perimeter; all we need to do now is sync to the cubicle which automatically happens as we sit down. In no time Thunder and I are engaging the swarm.
For a swarm this size, it seems too easy, and I flash a message over to the Ops director:
Too easy, misdirection?
The instant response simply reads:
Scanning
I see a message flash at the same time as one of the Defenders explodes taking out an unidentified object in the Delta quadrant. I redirect my Interceptors to the location and link up to the relevant Explorer, another Defender already in position. Thunder has followed my lead while the rest of the team deal with the swarm.
The AGI flashes an error warning in a line of code just as another Defender explodes taking out another unidentified object. I send the blip in the line of code to the Ops director but not before instructing AGI to FIND13 and FIX14 the code to allow the Interceptors to ‘see’ and deal with the unidentified objects before the Defenders must respond.
The Ops director doubles the Defenders as a precaution and notifies the other FOBS. It’s the first time that we have seen this type of camouflage used, indicating a sophisticated adversary. However, with the code now identified, what’s left of the swarm retreats. That was a close call, and we all wait for the final all clear before we relax. It will be up to others to investigate further.
Following the call to return to normal ops, I take the opportunity to introduce Thunder to the Ops directors still loitering in the back.
“Thunder, great to meet you, welcome to the team,” says one.
“No longer a rookie, Thunder, great job,” says another.
“I like your instincts kid, keep up the good work,” says the final one.
My stomach grumbles reminding me it’s time for scran. No longer worried about having to pass on any sage advice to Thunder, we head over to the galley and regale in the details of the last mission.
Tracy MacSephney is a 1SL Associate Fellow working with the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. She has a MA in Creative Writing (KUL), a MA in Defence Studies (KCL), and an interest in useful fiction.
References
Airbus Website (2022) “A400M”, Airbus Website [Online]. Available at A400M | Airbus (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Allison, G (2022) “UK planning to purchase additional A400M transport aircraft”, UK Defence Journal [Online]. Available at UK planning to purchase additional A400M transport aircraft (ukdefencejournal.org.uk) (accessed 18 Aug 22)
BBC Bitesize (2022), “Typhoon Haiyan”, BBC Bitesize [Online]. Available at Tropical storm case study – Typhoon Haiyan – Tropical storms – AQA – GCSE Geography Revision – AQA – BBC Bitesize (accessed 8 Feb 22)
BBC News, (2022d). “Combat drones: We are in a new era of warfare – here’s why”, BBC News [Online]. Available at Combat drones: We are in a new era of warfare – here’s why – BBC News (accessed 8 Feb 22)
Department for Transport, (2019), Maritime 2050; Navigating the Future. [Online]. Available at Maritime 2050 (publishing.service.gov.uk) (accessed 17 Aug 22)
Earth 2050 website (2022) “Earth 2050: A glimpse into the future” [Online]. Available at Earth 2050: A glimpse into the future | Kaspersky (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Escott, E. (2017) “What are the 3 types of AI? A guide to narrow, general and super artificial intelligence”, Codebots [Online]. Available at What are the 3 types of AI? A guide to narrow, general, and super artificial intelligence | Codebots (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Glenn, J.C. and the Millennium Project Team (2019) Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions [Online]. Available at Work_Tech_2050-ExecSumm.pdf (millennium-project.org) (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Hadaway, S. (2022) “The real Top Gun: History of the US Navy pilot school”, Live Science [Online]. Available at The real Top Gun: History of the US Navy pilot school | Live Science (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Haghroosta, T. and Ismail, W. R., (2017), “Typhoon activity and some important parameters in the South China Sea”, Weather and Climate Extremes. [Online]. Available at (PDF) Typhoon activity and some important parameters in the South China Sea (researchgate.net) (accessed 8 Feb 22)
Hurricane Science (2022) “Hurricane Life Cycle”, Hurricane Science [Online]. Available at Hurricanes: Science and Society: Hurricane Life Cycle (hurricanescience.org) (accessed 14 Feb 22)
Marine Insight (2021) “Top 10 World’s Largest Container Ships in 2022”, Marine Insight News Network[Online]. Available at Top 10 World’s Largest Container Ships In 2022 (marineinsight.com) (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Michelle, M.A (2020) “The Workplace of 2050, According to Experts”, The Wall Street Journal [Online]. Available at The Workplace of 2050, According to Experts – WSJ (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Ministry of Defence, (2018), Global Strategic Trends, The Future Starts Today, Sixth Edition. [Online]. Available at Global Strategic trends – the future starts today (publishing.service.gov.uk) (accessed 3 Feb 22)
Morris, N (2019) “The 10 surprising jobs that will be huge in 2050, Metro News [Online]. Available at The 10 surprising jobs that will be huge in 2050 | Metro News (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Newcomb, T. (2017) “7 of the World’s Biggest and Baddest Offshore Structures”, Popular Mechanics [Online]. Available at 7 of the World’s Biggest and Baddest Offshore Structures (popularmechanics.com) (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Pratesi, G (2022) “The 15 Biggest Cruise Ships in the World 2022”, U.S.News and World Report [Online]. Available at The 15 Biggest Cruise Ships in the World (usnews.com) (accessed 18 Aug 22)
UKRI (2021) UK Transport Vision 2050: investing in the future of mobility, UKRI, Innovate UK [Online]. Available at IUK-110122-UK-Transport-Vision-2050.pdf (ukri.org) (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Useful Fiction website (2022) [Online]. Available at https://useful-fiction.com (accessed 18 Aug 22)
Watts, J. (2019) “The environment in 2050: flooded cities, forced migration – and the Amazon turning to savannah”, The Guardian [Online]. Available at The environment in 2050: flooded cities, forced migration – and the Amazon turning to savannah | Climate crisis | The Guardian (accessed 18 Aug 22)
[1] Useful Fiction or FICINT (Fictional Intelligence), “melds nonfiction research with the power of narrative to reach target audiences with greater effect” (Useful Fiction, 2022)
[2] Global Strategic Trends future worlds: Fragmentation: “States, corporations, megacities and other non-state actors, including organised criminal and dissident groups, compete for power. Cooperation is rare and only sought when there is a benefit to further an actor’s interests.” (Global Strategic Trends, 2018)
[3] HUD is heads-up-display, incorporated into glasses that everyone wears.
[4] The Alliance refers to the World’s strongest alliance previously called 5 eyes and what was Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK, and US.
[5] FOBS is “Forward Operating Battleship”; imagine 4 of the biggest cruise ships, built on top of oil platform technology with a flattop able to land an A400M; 800m long, 120m wide, powered by nuclear energy operating down to minus 47 degrees Fahrenheit, able to withstand any conditions including superstorms, using artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) to control the propulsion and stabilisers to manoeuvrer the FOBS and avoid the worst of the superstorms. Maintains approx. 40k personnel including Alliance military personnel, their families, agricultural, education, energy, engineering, entertainment, hospitality, media, retail, and other personnel able to support a fully functioning city.
[6] DREADNOUGHT named after HMS DREADNOUGHT, under UK Command covers the Atlantic Ocean and associated littoral regions. ENTERPRISE same size as DREADNOUGHT is under US Command operating in the Pacific Ocean; HALIFAX (Canadian Command operating in the Arctic), BRISBANE (Australian Command operating in the Indian Ocean) and TE KAHA (New Zealand Command operating in Oceania) are slightly smaller with approx. 30k personnel and have the same capabilities although slightly reduced mass.
[7] Sims is short for simulators; all training is now conducted in simulators.
[8] Top Gun referring to the best of the best in drone dog fighting skills. With drones now operating on artificial general intelligence (AGI) it takes a human in the loop to provide the creativity required to out manoeuvre and destroy enemy fighter drones which mostly still use AGI. The Alliance relies on AGI to operate the Explorers (intelligence gathering drones both above water and subsea) and Defenders (imagine a contact mine drone, colliding with incoming objects, if necessary, again both above water and subsea). Top Gun pilots operate up to four Interceptor drones (above water fighters) at a time and rely on AGI to have additional Interceptors on standby to replace those lost during battle. Submariners operate up to four Seaceptor drones (subsea fighters) at a time and rely on AGI to have additional Seaceptors on standby to replace those lost during battle. Not many adversaries have the subsea capabilities, so the submariners are not as busy as the Top Gun pilots. AGI with human maintainers ensure new drones are printed to maintain the mass required by the Alliance. “Industry roles will be multidisciplinary, potentially requiring the ability to create, operate and maintain autonomous and technological systems.” (Maritime 2050, para 39) “The future of the human race is hedged on creativity.” (Escott, 2017)
[9] Scran is slang for food.
[10] Fallon is the Alliances Top Gun school, the best of the best from across the Alliance are sent there to be certified and the best of those make it to ENTERPRISE and DREADNOUGHT.
[11] On the cusp of artificial super intelligence (ASI) it is still unclear how this will affect military operations.
[12] The office is the Command Centre, a common operating picture is displayed on the theatre style screen that all the cubicles face, each cubicle has its own display allowing the operators to engage their own targets but allowing the Ops director to see the whole picture.
[13] FIND: Detect, recognise, identify and/or locate a unit, object, activity, situation, event or individual or group(s).
[14] FIX: Deny the enemy their goals, to distract them and thus deprive them of freedom of action to gain own forces freedom of action.
Featured Image: Art created with Image Creator from Microsoft Designer.